2014 Fantasy BaseballFantasy Baseball

2014 Fantasy Baseball: Injured Starters With Second-Half Value, Part 1

Hellickson

With the All-Star Break looming, many of us are analyzing our rosters to determine just what we need to make that midsummer push toward the title. Given the rash of major pitcher injuries this year, there’s a strong chance you need some help on the mound. Some of you just need some volume, but some of you have lost multiple studs and you are in dire need of impact arms. Let’s look at a three names who have been shelved with injuries, but are nearing a return and could be the key to your second-half success.

These are ordered by progress so the guys returning this week make up part one of the list while those with uncertain timetables have some speculation with regards to when I believe they will return and will be featured in a second part later this week. The league recommendation tables that will follow each player assume you need pitching, so please keep that in mind. If I recommend buying someone in a 12-team league, that doesn’t mean you’re cutting a Phil Hughes for him because of Hughes’ three bad starts recently. It means you’ve lost Jose Fernandez and Cliff Lee and you’ve been piecing it together with streamers and the Jesse Chavezes of the world.

Jeremy Hellickson, TB – Elbow – Returning Tuesday, July 8th

Hellickson collapsed in 2013 as his once-elite LOB rate completely imploded falling from 82.7 percent in 2012 to 66.2 percent last year. Unfortunately, that drop led to a 5.17 ERA that masked his career-best strikeout rate at 18.3 percent and his best full-season walk rate at 6.8 percent (he had a 5.4 percent mark in 36.3 IP back in 2010). Hellickson’s value is at its nadir between both the wretched 2013 and the elbow surgery which should afford you some time to wait-and-see in mixed leagues of 10- and 12-teams. In all other formats, you likely have to buy before you try (in other words, he’s likely on someone’s roster heading into tonight’s start), but if he’s not, I’d make the move. There is still a lot of upside in this right arm and while he may have a bumpy first few starts, he can offer big value in the final two months of the season with full health.

10-mixed: Wait & See; 12-mixed: Wait & See; Everything else: Buy

Dillon Gee, NYM – Lat – Returning Wednesday, July 9th

Gee looked great prior to his mid-May injury, posting a 2.73 ERA in 52.7 innings, though his strikeout and walk rates have both regressed from 2013, yielding a modest 2.2 K:BB ratio. Gee has been succeeding by stifling hits and stranding runners with career-best 7.0 H/9 and 85 percent LOB rates. His ERA continues to drop even as his skills drop in concert. It’s odd because he had some impressive skills in 2012 and 2013, but his 4.10 and 3.62 ERAs weren’t particularly special. If he can’t bring his component numbers closer to his 2012-2013 levels, then that ERA is going to rise. I’ve always been a Gee fan, so I’m willing to gamble, but with a short leash. He is going to rejoin the Mets’ rotation on Wednesday, ahead of the original schedule that had him returning after the break.

10-mixed: Wait & See; Everything else: Buy

Joe Kelly, STL – Hamstring – Returning Friday, July 11th

Kelly was off to a brilliant start having allowed one earned run in three starts prior to getting hurt. Like Gee, his skills didn’t really match that kind of performance (2.3 K:BB ratio), but it’s hardly a stretch to suggest that his 0.59 ERA is on the rise. That said, Kelly has shown throughout his career that he can post ERAs well beyond his skills. He managed a 2.69 ERA in 124 innings last year with a 4.01 FIP and a 3.53 in 107 back in 2012 with 4.00 FIP. He spent those two years shifting between the rotation and bullpen which no doubt helped him with his gaudy LOB rates (74 and 82 percent, respectively) and his great groundball rate at 51 percent is a big help, too (he was 85% LOB and 58% GB in those three starts before injury). I think Kelly will hold the inside track on Carlos Martinez to stay in the rotation either as Michael Wacha returns or if the Cardinals make a move outside of the organization despite Martinez obviously holding the loftier upside. Kelly has a lot more experience and has shown that he can be a reliable six-plus inning guy for them while Martinez is still building up his stamina as a starter. Despite the low strikeout totals, I like Kelly’s stuff and actually see the potential for him to turn up that K rate while maintaining his elite groundball tendencies.

10-mixed: Wait & See; Everything else: Buy

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