2014 Fantasy FootballFantasy Football

2014 Fantasy Football: Week 4 — The Good, The Mediocre, The Ugly

Photo credit: Keith Allison
Photo credit: Keith Allison

The 2014 NFL season is already a quarter of the way finished, and to say there have been a myriad of surprises in the fantasy landscape would be an understatement. Injuries and ineffectiveness have sapped the value of many universal first-round selections like LeSean McCoy and Eddie Lacy so far this year while other players being showered with haterade before the season like Marshawn Lynch, Le’Veon Bell, and Rashad Jennings have flourished. It just goes to show you the unpredictable week-to-week nature of the league. You must be meticulous in noticing how player value can drastically change weekly due to a variety of circumstances to maximize your chances of scoring the most points.

Fortunately for the owners of a few players alluded to earlier, their patience was rewarded with huge fantasy outputs, while others continued to be affected by have struggles that would seem unfathomable prior to the season. Six teams were on bye in Week 4 and there were a plethora of studs owners were unable to deploy in a crucial week in the seasons early going. Having ample depth at this time is often the difference in fantasy matchups so keep that in mind if you notice a cluster of players with the same bye week. Even with all the absences around the NFL, there were still plenty of noteworthy fantasy performances and it’s about that time to break it down. With that being said, lets get the Week 4 QB/RB edition of The Good, The Mediocre, The Ugly started.

QB: The Good

1. Eli Manning: 28-39-300-4-1 INT (One rush, one yard, 1 TD)… After being left for dead after a crummy Week 1 showing, Eli has rattled off three consecutive good starts and he capped it off with an exclamation point by dismantling the Redskins defense in Week 4. He’s completed 70.6 percent of his passes with an 8:3 TD:INT ratio over the last three games and he gets an appetizing matchup in the Falcons in Week 5. Not to mention he gets to face the Eagles, Cowboys, and Colts the following three weeks. In a quick-hitting scheme implemented by Giants OC Ben McAdoo with competent weapons like Victor Cruz, Larry Donnell, Reuben Randle, Rashad Jennings, and soon-to-be Odell Beckham, Manning’s fantasy arrow is pointing straight up.

2. Andrew Luck: 29-41-393-4-1 INT… Luck is the top QB in fantasy football and it’s not really that close. He’s raised his completion percentage from 60.2 percent in 2013 to 68.9 percent this season while also raising his yards per game from 238.9 to 326.3. Simply remarkable. Lacking no shortage of weapons in the passing game while also possessing ample speed, Luck is locked in as a top-5 QB and he very well may end up being the most valuable by seasons end.

3. Aaron Rodgers: 22-28-302-4 (One rush, eight yards)… Critics had been pointing out the Packers not so fast start on offense and Rodgers told them not to worry. He responded by unleashing an impeccable performance against a Bears team he so often feasts upon. The Rodgers-Jordy combo is utterly unstoppable and with Randall Cobb finding seams in the end zone at will this Packers offense is still as dangerous as ever. Just check out this insane throw Rodgers made on a play called back by penalty in the GIF below. He’s poised for a huge week against the Vikings on Thursday Night Football.

omgrod.0

4. Philip Rivers: 29-39-377-3… Gifted with an almost unfair matchup against the defenseless Jaguars, Rivers took full advantage of the opportunity. He also finally developed a nice rapport with his best receiver Keenan Allen, which was nice to see for potential future gains. Rivers is completing 70.1 percent of his passes through four games and he also sports a shiny 9:1 TD:INT ratio. Rivers is second in terms of scoring for quarterbacks and he should keep the good times rolling against the Jets barren secondary in Week 5.

5. Teddy Bridgewater: 19-30-317 (Five rushes, 27 yards, 1 TD)… Make no mistake about it, Bridgewater sure didn’t look like a rookie in his first career start. Detractors will point out the Falcons are an atrocious defensive unit, which isn’t a false statement, but at the same time Bridgewater looked calm under pressure. He scampered in for a score and wasn’t sacked once, both positive signs for his fantasy value. He did sprain his ankle and is looking like a game-time decision against he Packers on Thursday, so don’t get ahead of yourselves if overestimating his value quite yet. He’s still a low-end QB2 for the time being.

Honorable Mention: Joe Flacco, Tony Romo, Alex Smith, Ben Roethlisberger

The Mediocre

1. Jay Cutler: 22-34-256-2 TD-2 INT (Three rushes, 29 yards)… Cutler started off hot but regressed to his careless gunslinging ways and he paid dearly for it. Brandon Marshall (ankle) is still not completely healthy but Cutler still has an abundance of options to choose from in the aerial attack. On the flip side, Cutler’s current 65.8% completion percentage would be a career-high and he’s also on pace for 40 passing touchdowns, which would obliterate his previous career-high of 27 back in 2009. The fifth most valuable fantasy QB so far, fire up Cutler as a high-end QB1 against the Panthers this week.

2. Cam Newton: 14-25-197-1 (Two rushes, seven yards)… While he certainly didn’t have the worst box score line this week, it sure wasn’t the greatest either. With his troublesome rib/ankle injuries, expectations have to be tempered, but his lack of involvement as a runner is still tough to swallow. Head coach Ron Rivera basically admitted that Newton won’t be cut loose until he’s ready to do so, not exactly a beacon of shining light for owners. Things can’t get much worse for Newton as he is sporting a career-high 63.8% completion rate and has yet to throw an interception. Until he is allowed to run more frequently though, he’ll remain a low-end QB1.

3. Blake Bortles: 29-37-253-1 TD-2 INT (Five rushes, 24 yards)… Bortles showed pretty well in his first career start considering the offensive unit he works with is mostly devoid of talent. Without any semblance of a running game and an offensive line that isn’t opening many holes, Bortles is going to be asked to chuck it around quite a bit. He possesses a great arm and excels when throwing downfield so look for OC Jedd Fisch to open up the playbook for the 22-year-old rookie as the season evolves. His rushing attempts will keep him squarely in the QB2 mix.

4. Matt Ryan: 25-41-243-3 TD-2 INT (Two rushes, two yards)… While he may have been able to register 20+ fantasy points, bigger things were expected from Ryan considering the opponent. Ryan is known to have his struggles on the road compared to at home though so it’s not completely unexpected. He is averaging 8.3 yards per attempt and 315.8 yards per game which would both be career-best numbers, so not all is negative. Ryan and the Falcons will face the Giants in the Meadowlands in Week 5 and being on the road is enough to knock him down a couple spots in the rankings this week.

5. Drew Brees: 32-44-340-2 TD-1 INT (One rush, six yards)… Brees and the Saints are well-known when it comes to having problems on the road and even playing in the dome known as JerryWorld couldn’t help the cause. He was held without a touchdown throw until the fourth quarter against a below average Cowboys defense. While you can’t just expect 30+ points out of a QB, this was one of those times where all the stars aligned for a huge fantasy game and it still didn’t happen. Brees is completing 71.4 percent of his passes but his 7.5 YPA would be his lowest rate since 2010. If Brees and Co. can’t get it going at home against the Bucs this weekend, then it might be time to worry.

The Ugly

1. Nick Foles: 21-43-195-2 INT… Coming off three straight comeback victories, there was no magic left for Foles and the Eagles on Sunday. Working with an offensive line that has been ravaged by injuries, Foles was constantly under duress and when he had time to throw he struggled with his accuracy. Although struggling against the 49ers defense has been a familiar fate the past few years, Foles had arguably the worst game of his career. After completing 64 percent of his throws in 2013, Foles has regressed to a 57.8 percent clip in 2014 so that is obviously his biggest weakness at the moment. Look for him to improve in that area and fire him up with confidence as a mid-range QB1 against the Rams in Week 5.

2. Kirk Cousins: 19-33-257-1 TD-4 INT (One rush, 12 yards)… Coming off a flawless performance against the Eagles only a week earlier, Cousins had a game to forget as he looked like the backup quarterback he’s been the last few years. Instead of further advancing the thought that he should keep the starting QB job even when Robert Griffin III comes back, his play created more questions than answers. The wise move would be to avoid Cousins this week as he squares off against the Seahawks.

3. Tom Brady: 14-23-159-1 TD-2 INT… Boy how the mighty have fallen. If you happened to tune in to the Monday Night Football game, you witnessed a legendary quarterback at his absolute worst. Lacking a downfield presence, any semblance of deep ball accuracy, and a healthy Rob Gronkowski, Brady is struggling more than ever before. He simply needs more weapons on offense but his play has also been downright abysmal. His current 59.1 percent completion rate would be the first time in his career held under the 60 percent threshold and his 5.8 YPA is easily a career-worst figure. As of right now, Brady is nothing more than a mid-range QB2 and it’s hard to envision his situation getting much better. He gets a daunting test against the Bengals in Week 5.

RB: The Good

1. Jamaal Charles: 18-92-1 (3 rec.-16 yards-2 TD)… Charles owners were finally rewarded for their patience with a signature performance from the all-purpose back. Showing off his trademark speed around the corners, Charles dusted Patriots defenders to the tune of 5.11 yards-per-carry. Knile Davis may get sprinkled in a bit more on offense in order to preserve Charles’ health, but Charles is well on his way to proving why owners spent a top-five pick for his services. The only bad news is that he is set to face the 49ers this week and they just completely stymied the Eagles running attack.

2. Matt Asiata: 20-78-3 (3-22)… We all know Asiata isn’t the most explosive runner in the Vikings backfield (Jerick McKinnon), but he is reliable and takes what the defense gives him. Only averaging a lousy 3.4 YPC for the season, Asiata’s fantasy value is dependent on his ability to find pay dirt. For the time being, he’s set to receive 15+ touches weekly and warrants RB2/Flex consideration in all leagues due to sheer volume. Just be sure not to forget about McKinnon who went for 18-135 and a near TD, as he is simply the Vikings most talented runner.

3. DeMarco Murray: 24-149-2 (1-6)… Quite frankly, Murray has been the best running back in the NFL this year. Playing behind a dominant Cowboys offensive line, Murray is ripping off 5.4 YPC. He’s now recorded four straight games with over 100 yards and a touchdown to start the season, a magnificent feat. He’s currently on pace to break the NFL single-season rushing record and if the Cowboys continue to implement their run-first mentality all year long, Murray will have a decent shot at it if he can stay healthy. Health is obviously the only potential issue here as it has been the biggest bugaboo through his career, but don’t fret too much about it. He’s the best running back in fantasy right now for a reason. He squares off against the Texans in Week 5.

4. Matt Forte: 23-122 (5-49)… In a game that many predicted would get Forte going, that was exactly the case. It was his first 100-yard rushing game of the year and he racked up four more catches, giving him 24 receptions for the year. Forte’s value shoots up in PPR leagues thanks to him averaging six catches a game. Although he has yet to find the end zone this year, the touchdowns should come in bunches and he is still operating as the Bears goal-line back. He faces a tough test against the Panthers this week.

5. Frank Gore: 24-119 (1-55-1)… In the days leading up to the 49ers game against the Eagles, the coaching staff made sure to let the masses know Gore would be getting the rock plenty on Sunday after receiving only six carries the week before. The coaches came through on their promise and Gore rewarded them for their play-calling as he notched his first 100+ yard effort on the year. His day would have not been as great if not for a fluky 55-yard touchdown catch, but owners aren’t complaining. With only three catches on the year though, it’s safe to say that he’s not going to be a huge factor in the passing game. He will be a touchdown dependent RB2/Flex option for future games.

Honorable Mention: Jerick McKinnon, Alfred Morris, Lamar Miller, Knile Davis, Justin Forsett

The Mediocre

1. Eddie Lacy: 17-48-1 (1-11)… It’s hard to keep making excuses for a guy averaging a pitiful 3.0 YPC after four games, even if the first three matchups were extremely challenging. Faced with a cakewalk matchup against a soft Bears defense, Lacy displayed strikingly little burst even when holes were open. Without the short touchdown, this would have been another disaster from the Alabama alum. With only seven catches, Lacy is going to have to score touchdowns to meet the value owners envision from week-to-week. Although selling Lacy at this time isn’t the advised course of action considering his low stock, I simply don’t see this situation getting better for Lacy from here on out. It might be time to jump ship if he can’t perform up to par against the Vikings on Thursday.

2. Le’Veon Bell: 11-63 (6-46)… In his “worst” performance in what has been a stellar start to the season, Bell still managed to rack up 109 all-purpose yards. Even when he has down weeks on the ground, his involvement in the passing game ensures him RB1 value. For the year, Bell is averaging 4.75 receptions a game. On the ground Bell is averaging 5.3 YPC and he happens to face the Jaguars this week, a team that’s had little success stopping the run. Fire him up as a top-three running back in Week 5.

3. Arian Foster: 8-6 (7-55)… One of the reasons I deemed Foster undraftable this year was due to his propensity for getting injured, specifically his lower legs. Fast forward to Week 4 and Foster is already causing owners headaches over his ability to stay on the field. Foster admitted he wasn’t 100 percent against the Bills stout front four, but that doesn’t make stomaching his SIX rushing yards any easier either. PPR owners were saved thanks to his seven catches but standard owners certainly weren’t as pleased. Alfred Blue actually received one more carry than Foster and although he gets a great matchup against the Cowboys in Week 5, it will be hard to trust Foster if he’s less than 100 percent.

4. Ahmad Bradshaw: 9-32 (2-20-1)… While Bradshaw is clearly a more effective running back than Trent Richardson, the Colts are trying to make sure his foot injuries from the past don’t become an issue once again, leading to the 20 carries for T-Rich. Anyhow, Bradshaw is averaging a sensational 5.4 YPC and has already caught four touchdowns this year. If that stat sounds fluky, it’s because it is. In seven prior seasons, Bradshaw had only caught three touchdowns. Basically what I’m trying to convey is that his current rate is unsustainable. On the flip side, he already has 14 catches and is on pace for 56, which would be a career-best. On a Colts offense that is shredding defenses on the reg, Bradshaw can be considered a safe RB2 in both standard and PPR formats.

5. Doug Martin: 14-40-1 (2-16)… Coming off a two-week absence, Martin showed just enough to give you hope that he could rebound but not enough to make you feel good about drafting him either. Facing off against a leaky Steelers defense, Martin was held to 2.86 YPC. He did scamper in for a touchdown and was the clear starter over Bobby Rainey, but he just didn’t capitalize on his chance. The Muscle Hamster gets another favorable matchup against the Saints this weekend, but can’t be counted on as anything more than a low-end RB2 for the time being.

Honorable Mention: Reggie Bush, Chris Ivory, C.J. Spiller, Toby Gerhart, Shane Vereen

The Ugly

1. LeSean McCoy: 10-17… Shady has found out that running behind an offensive line that is minus three top-tier starters isn’t a recipe for success, no matter how gifted you are. Over the last two weeks, McCoy has 29 carries for 39 yards, good for a 1.35 YPC. That’s not a misprint. Although owners who spent a top-three pick on McCoy‘s talents are probably more than fed up with his lackluster play and want to ship him off, selling him off at his absolute lowest value isn’t the smart move. Things simply can’t get any worst from here and owners can take solace in the fact he gets an easy matchup against the Rams this week.

2. Rashad Jennings: 13-55 (1 for -3)… If you own Jennings and saw the Giants scored 45 points last Thursday, it wouldn’t be unwise to assume that Jennings had scored a touchdown or two. Checking the box score and seeing that he scored zero touchdowns and was out-carried by Andre Williams 15-13 probably wasn’t what you were expecting though. He could have helped his cause by not dropping a gimme touchdown. Not everything is as it seems though. After receiving 34 carries in Week 3, the Giants were up big in Week 4 and decided to give Jennings an early rest. There’s nothing to worry about here as Jennings is still the bellcow back in this backfield and is on pace for 324 carries.

3. Donald Brown: 10-19 (4-35)… If you’re unfamiliar with the glorious “Dammit Donald” video made famous by Peyton Manning, I highly suggest you check it out as it perfectly encapsulates how Brown owners felt after his forgettable performance against the porous Jaguars defense. Brown has 41 carries for 81 yards the last two weeks, once again, that’s not a misprint. Branden Oliver started to spell Brown quite frequently in the second half and with the Jets fearsome run defense on deck for Brown, he’s a FLEX option only.

4. DeAngelo Williams: 11-34… In a backfield minus Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert in addition to a gimpy Cam Newton, there was reason for optimism concerning Williams’ ability to have a nice fantasy day in Week 4. Before leaving with a high-ankle sprain, the 31-year-old wasn’t doing much of anything. Now all but certain to miss at least a few weeks, the Panthers are left with UDFA Darrin Reaves, Chris Ogbonnaya, and Fozzy Whittaker will likely form a value-killing three-headed timeshare.

Thanks for reading and be sure to comment with any comments, remarks, or corrections needed for my article. You can follow me on Twitter @MattMoczy.

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