Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy: August 8, 2015
We have successfully survived another week – Happy Saturday folks! As is customary with Saturday’s, we have a split slate. The analysis today, including the pitching perspective, the best teams to stack from and the individual player rankings will focus on tonight’s slate on DraftKings.
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Looks like it’ll be a beautiful day of baseball across the country!
Unfortunately, the set of games featured in the late slate does not feature too many good pitchers. The best matchup, one that you’ll want to take advantage of, is Tyson Ross against the Philadelphia Phillies. I’m not buying into the Phillies play since the all-star break, because they still have a pathetic offense, and they’ll be facing a rather severe park shift out of their favor tonight. I’m sort of a Ross fanboy on account of his excellent ground ball and strikeout numbers, but the lack of command is unsettling. The Phillies currently have an implied run total of around 2.8 runs, clearly the lowest on the slate, making Ross the top option by far. He’s cheap enough that you can take advantage of using him.
Stephen Strasburg will take the mound in the late slate, making his first start since his activation from the disabled list (where he seems to spend most of his time). Strasburg is somewhat of an enigma as a DFS play, but his matchup against the Colorado Rockies at home, is one to try and take advantage of. He’s a huge favorite (-200) and the Rockies implied run total is sitting just barely above three runs. It’s well known that Strasburg has incredible strikeout potential, but in his first start back, I’d be cautious as the Nationals will be about his pitch count and the in game situation. He’s a little too expensive for me to roster in cash games with the uncertainty, but he makes for a solid tournament play.
The Twins continue to score tons and tons of runs, but tonight their matchup with Trevor Bauer might keep them from crossing home plate frequently. Bauer is quite like a lot of his rotation mates – not the safest play, but crazy high upside. His strikeout potential is through the roof, and with not many other options tonight, his arm at home has to sneak into your mind as a cash game option. The Twins are liable to explode at any time, so this is a matchup that you might want to hedge your bets with, throwing a small Twins stack in the ring along with the Bauer play.
Last but not least, Tom Koehler and Jaime Garcia should both be on your radar. While their repertoires are essentially complete opposites, their productions are eerily similar. Garcia is probably the safer option for cash games, as his matchup with Milwaukee isn’t one to be too frightened of. While Koehler provides a bit more upside, but he has a matchup with a pesky Atlanta team that doesn’t strike out too much.
1. Arizona Diamondbacks – The Diamondbacks will take advantage of the best run scoring environment tonight at Chase Field, and they’ll be taking on young right-hander Keyvius Sampson. The great thing about any potential Diamondbacks stack, is that all of their best players, and those with most upside, are reasonably priced, therefore you can fit a full stack. Their implied run total is hovering around 4.5 runs, which isn’t an astronomical number, but is one of the highest on this pretty bleak slate. If not running out a full stack, look to find value with left-handers Ender Inciarte and David Peralta for cash games.
2. Detroit Tigers – Wade Miley seems to fit the mold of those pitchers that break our hearts and snap our stacks. But like John Danks and others, he’s liable to get tattooed every time he takes the mound. Miley’s strikeout numbers have taken a hit this season, and he’s issuing even more free passes than ever before. Contact plus free baserunners is a recipe for success when stacking a lineup top to bottom. There is no Miguel Cabrera here, but Detroit will send out enough talented right-handers to bother Miley, and help out your pocket.
3. San Diego Padres – It seems somewhat counterintuitive to stack at such a bad ball park for offense, but it can breed great results. Adam Morgan is perhaps the least skilled starter of the day, and the Padres have a lot of bats that have historical success against left-handers. However, thanks to their ball park, and lack of success this season, most people will stray away from having exposure to them. This isn’t a team to completely sell out your entire night on, but it’s worth a shot. Fire up Justin Upton and Derek Norris in your cash games and GPPs.
1. Derek Norris -$3,300 – San Diego Padres
2. Wellington Castillo -$4,100 – Arizona Diamondbacks
3. Jonathan Lucroy -$3,500 – Milwaukee Brewers
1. Paul Goldschmidt -$6,000 – Arizona Diamondbacks
2. Jose Abreu -$4,800 – Chicago White Sox
3.Victor Martinez -$3,400 – Detroit Tigers
1. Ian Kinsler -$3,100 – Detroit Tigers
2.Dee Gordon -$4,400 – Miami Marlins
3. Yangervis Solarte -$3,300 – San Diego Padres
1. Jhonny Peralta -$4,200 – St. Louis Cardinals
2. Alexi Amarista -$2,600 – San Diego Padres
3. Erick Aybar -$3,200 – Los Angeles Angels
1. Danny Espinosa -$3,100 – Washington Nationals
2. Mike Moustakas -$3,300 – Kansas City Royals
3. Todd Frazier -$4,700 – Cincinnati Reds
1. JD Martinez -$4,600 – Detroit Tigers
2. AJ Pollock -$5,300 – Arizona Diamondbacks
3. Ender Inciarte -$3,700 – Arizona Diamondbacks
1. Tyson Ross -$10,600 – San Diego Padres
2. Trevor Bauer -$9,800 – Cleveland Indians
3. Stephen Strasburg – $10,100 -Washington Nationals
4. Jaime Garcia -$10,000 – St. Louis Cardinals
5. Tom Koehler -$7,500 -Miami Marlins