2015 Fantasy Golf

Daily Fantasy Golf Strategy: Crowne Invitational at Colonial

Another week of PGA Daily Fantasy picks for DraftKings as we head to the Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial. We learned last week that Rory McIlroy is good at golf. Well, we probably already knew that. I’m back again to provide daily fantasy golf picks for DraftKings’ PGA game.

It’s a great week to check out DraftKings as they have some top notch contests. Come on over and take a look.

Tour Stop

This week we tee it up for the Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas. The Colonial Country Club course is a beautiful 7,204 yard par 70 course. The course has been a Tour stop every year since 1946 and held a U.S Open and a U.S. Women’s Open. This is a classic course with narrow fairways. It is a shot maker’s dream.

The weather looks like we could have thunderstorms at any time during the four days. It is that time of the year in the South as the weather can change in the blink of an eye. As always, check in on the weather as we get closer to the Thursday start.

Scorecard breakdown: Four (4) par threes, twelve (12) par fours and two (2) par fives. With only two par fives, the scoring will come on par 4s this week. One of the par fives is 600 yards! Three of the par threes are between 190 and 194 yards while the par fours run the gamut from 373 to 468 yards. Seven of the par fours are between 400 and 450 yards. Water is nearly absent on the front nine, but comes into play on many holes on the back nine.

Field

This is an invitational so the field is a bit smaller with only 125 players expected (as opposed to the full field numbers of 144 to 156). The last two into the field are the Champion’s Choice – they are Cody Gribble (who played his college golf at the University of Texas with Jordan Spieth) and Sam Saunders (Arnold Palmer’s grandson).

The full field can be found here.

Thanks to GolfOdds.com for the odds this week. If you’d like to see a second set of odds, check out the Betting Zone’s odds here – just click on this week’s tournament on the left hand pane.

Past Tournament Results

2014 Winner: Adam Scott passed everyone on Sunday and tied Jason Dufner to force a playoff. Scott won on the third playoff hole. Scott had just moved into the number one spot in the OWGR the prior week.

Top 20 - Crowne Invitational at Colonial - Last three years
Top 20 – Crowne Invitational at Colonial – Last three years

Scott finished T52 in driving distance, T8 in driving accuracy, T10 in GIR, T14 in proximity to the hole and solo 16th in scrambling. Boo Weekley was the winner in 2013 by finishing 17th in driving distance, T6 in driving accuracy, T5 in GIR and 1st in proximity to the hole while placing 40th in scrambling.

Statistical Review

This is a tight course with narrow fairways all the way around. You want the shot makers on Tour on your squad this week. Bombers won’t be able to outmuscle this course – when you see players like Corey Pavin on a list of winners you know that the shorter hitters can succeed.

And with only two par fives, scoring is going to have to come from somewhere else (psst….par fours!)

Driving Accuracy – It’s a tight course. The players need to keep the ball on the course and they won’t have much fairway to work with.

GIR – Get onto the fairway, get to the green, putt. Repeat.

Par 4 Scoring – There are only two par fives, so players will need to pick up strokes on the 12 par 4s.

Distance from Center of the Fairway – I’ll take a gander at this stat as well as it tells you who does the best job of keeping the ball in the middle of the fairway or at least close to it.

As always, you should examine Strokes Gained: Putting and Strokes Gained: Tee to Green every week.

DraftKings Expert Picks

Jordan Spieth | $13,000 – Spieth is the best golfer not named Rory McIlroy on the planet. He’s played here the last two years and has back to back top 15 finishes. He missed the cut at THE PLAYERS his last time out, but he’s likely refreshed and ready to start another streak. A top 10 finish is nearly guaranteed. Oh, he’s also second in par 4 scoring average if you needed anything else to get you motivated.

Zach Johnson | $12,000 – Johnson was everybody’s favorite heading into last year’s Colonial. He had won twice in the past five years and had never finished lower than ninth in those five years. Then, he bombed out to a T73 in 2014 and never challenged the leaders. I’m getting back on that horse based on his track record and his four top 20 finishes in his last five stroke play events. It’s tough to pay for anyone in this upper tier, but if you want to in a GPP he should produce.

Jimmy Walker | $11,200 – The Texan has played here twice and picked up a T10 last year. He hasn’t done much since his win at the Valero (which is held in Texas). I don’t think I’ll pay for him this week as I’m not sure which Walker we’ll get.

Kevin Na | $9,900 – Na has made seven of nine cuts here but missed last year. His two top 10s were a while ago, but he’s playing extremely well without missing a cut since Pebble Beach in mid-February. He sits 19th in par 4 scoring so he should be able to take this course by storm.

Ryan Palmer | $9,600 – Palmer is a member at Colonial. He has three straight top 15 finishes here. Do we really need to talk about anything else? I don’t care about stats or form or the phases of the moon. He’s going to be a cornerstone of my cash game lineups and I don’t care who knows.

Adam Scott | $9,400 – Nope. No thanks. Nein. Nyet. Ne. Not until he gets that putter figured out.

Paul Casey | $9,300 – Casey missed the cut here last year, but if you look back he had back to back top 15 finishes in his only two other stops here, back when he was healthy and dominating. He withdrew last time out at THE PLAYERS, but he was sick so we’ll give him a pass. He had three straight top 10s prior to this withdrawal. He sits 29th in par 4 scoring average and 15th in GIR.

Charley Hoffman | $9,300 – Yes, Hoffman is a Texan. Yes, he’s succeeded at other Texas courses. Yes, he’s made all six cuts in his six appearances and has two top 20s to show for it. However, of the top 20 in odds to win, Hoffman has the highest variance between those odds (12th) and DraftKings salary rank (7th).

Patrick Reed|$9,300 – Reed looked disinterested down the stretch last week and I’m a bit concerned about his focus when he’s not on the leaderboard. He played here once in 2013 and finished T46. I’ll pass this week even though I’m generally on him.

Ian Poulter | $9,100 – Poulter hasn’t played here since 2010, but like Casey, you can see some solid results in the past with back to back top 15 finishes. He rates well statistically as well siting fourth out of all Tour players in my analysis as he’s third in par 4 scoring, 27th in GIR, 54th in driving accuracy and 12th in distance from the center of the fairway. He comes in with seven straight cuts made in stroke play events.

Kevin Kisner | $9,100 – Kisner missed the cut at Colonial his first time out last year. However, this is the new and improved Kisner! He fits the profile of a successful player here as he’s 41st in par 4 scoring, 38th in driving accuracy, 62nd in distance from the center of the fairway and 86th in GIR. He’s been on a great run in his last four tournaments where he’s lost in a playoff twice.

Brendon Todd | $9,100 – Todd’s made the cut both times he’s been to Colonial and had a T5 last year. I think he’s going to be owned everywhere so I might fade him as his profile doesn’t jump out at me.

Chris Kirk | $9,000 – Kirk has made five of five cuts including three top 20 finishes in the last four years. He comes in off his best finish of 2015 at THE PLAYERS (T13). This course suits his game well.

Hunter Mahan | $8,600 – Mahan is eight of 11 in cuts made but has only one top 10 at the Crowne Invitational. He enters in solid form and sits tenth in par 4 scoring so he’s a solid option at just over the average price.

Steve Stricker |$8,500 – Won here in 2009. Hasn’t played here since 2010. Has played three times this season with two made cuts and a top finish of T28 at the Masters. Your guess is as good as mine. Pass.

Ben Martin | $8,500 – Martin debuted here last year with a T21. He’s 29th in par 4 scoring, 18th in GIR and 40th in driving accuracy. He’s made his last three cuts and five of six on tour.

Patrick Rodgers | $8,400 – Rodgers makes his debut at the Colonial off a T2 last week at Quail Hollow. The two courses couldn’t be much different, but DraftKings must value Rodgers’ big finish as they have him rated as the 18th most expensive while Vegas likes him more at 34th best odds to win. He wasn’t even playing well on the WEB.com tour so there isn’t much to go on with Rodgers. I’d rather have his fellow $8,400 golfer…

Brandt Snedeker | $8,400 – Snedeker has played at Colonial sporadically, but he’s made the cut in every trip (four times total). He’s 19th in par 4 scoring and should be able to handle the course.

Louis Oosthuizen | $8,300 – Oosty should play well here as he’s 29th in par 4 scoring, 49 th in GIR, and 38th in distance from center of the fairway. He’s made the cut twice here in his only two trips.

Sean O’Hair | $8,200 – O’Hair is four for six in making the weekend at the Crowne Invitational with two top 20 finishes. He stands out as he’s third in par 4 scoring which should be a huge advantage this week. I see his career revival continuing at Colonial.

Russell Knox | $8,200 – Knox is my statistical darling this week as he sits atop my rankings as he’s 10th in par 4 scoring, 11th in GIR, 24th in driving accuracy and 12th in distance from the center of the fairway. He’s made four straight cuts and has two top 20s in that run. He finished T21 here last year in his only trip to Colonial. I expect even better results this year.

John Senden | $8,100 – Senden is nine of 13 in cuts made with three top 10 finishes including last year’s T5. It’s been a bumpy season for Senden, but he comes in with a quarterfinal loss at the Match Play and a T8 at THE PLAYERS and his accuracy off the tee and ability to get to the greens will serve him well.

Graham DeLaet | $8,100 – DeLaet has a good record here making three of four cuts and back to back top 25 finishes. However, he’s in poor form having missed four of six cuts. It’s been a lost season for DeLaet outside of February.

Jason Kokrak | $8,100 – Kokrak showed what volatility is all about last week. In his last eight tournaments he’s missed four cuts and finished T7, T6, T11, and T18. If he shows up, he’ll produce big numbers. He’s 29th in par 4 scoring if you want something to hang your hat on for Kokrak’s debut here.

Daniel Berger | $8,100 – Berger should do well here. Though, I feel like I say that every week and he doesn’t always return the favor. He sits 29th in par 4 scoring and17th in GIR so he has some stuff going for him. I’ll probably fade him this week as I’m not sure what I’m going to get.

Pat Perez | $8,000 – Perez is on fire with five straight cuts made and no finish worse than T26. He also checks all of the statistical boxes this week as he’s 19th in par 4 scoring, 39th in driving accuracy, 79th in GIR and 15th in distance from center of the fairway. He hasn’t had any recent success here, but did have a run of three straight top 10s a few years ago. He’s made seven of 10 cuts along with those three top 10s.

Robert Streb | $8,000 – Streb started out hot-fire in the early season leading the Tour in FedEx Cup points in the early going putting up five top 10s including a win before February. Then, he went on a run where he missed five of eight cuts. However, he looks to be back as he placed T30 at THE PLAYERS and followed that up with a T4 at Quail Hollow. He’s 19th in par 4 scoring and 26th in GIR and finished T38 here last year.

Jim Herman | $8,000 – Herman also makes his debut here playing some of the best golf of his life. He’s made three straight cuts and picked up back to back to 15 finishes. He rates as the fifth best option through my statistical analysis. However, it seems as DK as priced in all of this and more rating him the 27th most expensive while Vegas sees him at 42nd – a difference of 15 spots. He’s not worth the investment this week. There is value to be had elsewhere in players with better track records.

Jason Dufner | $7,900 – Dufner has two solo second place finishes at Colonial in the last three years. Huh? Really? Really. That’s what you are hitching your ride to this week with Dufner.

Shawn Stefani | $7,800 – Stefani is a Texan who profiles well here. He’s 29th in par 4 scoring, eighth in distance from center of the fairway and 35th in GIR. He’s teed it up here once and finished T42. He bounced back at the Wells Fargo with a T9 after missing the cut at THE PLAYERS.

Boo Weekley | $7,700 – Weekley has made five cuts in six trips with two top 10 finishes including a win in 2013. He bounced back from a missed cut at THE PLAYERS to card a T16 at the Wells Fargo. He is 58th in par 4 scoring and doesn’t embarrass himself in any of the other categories we’re looking at this week.

Kevin Streelman | $7,500 – Streelman is another statistically intriguing player. He’s tenth in par 4 scoring, 31st in GIR, and 28th in driving accuracy. His history here is uneven with only two cuts made in five trips though he does have a top 10. He has two top 15 finishes in his last four tourneys.

Geoff Ogilvy | $7,400 – Ogilvy caught my eye with the significant difference in Vegas odds and his rank in DK’s salary list. He’s a full 19 spots lower in salary than he should be based on his odds to win. He missed the cut last year, but his history shows 7 of 10 cuts made including one top 10. He comes in off his best finish of the season (T7) at the Wells Fargo.

Jason Bohn | $7,300 – Bohn is back here for a second week. And his T9 was more than we could have asked for. So, let’s see if we can score again. He’s 16th in par 4 scoring, 13th in GIR and eighth in Driving Accuracy so he checks out statistically as well. He missed the cut at this tourney last year, but has made the cut in six of eight tries including two top 20 finishes.

Marc Leishman | $7,300 – Leishman has seen the weekend in each of his four trips to Colonial and had his best finish last year with a T21. He’s played pretty well since his wife’s illness and is in off a T24 at THE PLAYERS.

David Toms | $7,200 – He’s 41 st in par 4 scoring. He has made 13 of 17 cuts here and has six top 10 finishes including a win in 2011. He’s been a bit uneven this year, but he seems to enjoy playing this course.

David Lingmerth | $7,000 – Lingmerth made his debut here in 2013 and shot to a T18. He followed that up last year with a T5. He’s missed three straight cuts after making three straight including a T44 the Valero (which is held in Texas). He’s 72nd in driving accuracy overall, but nothing else stands out. Like his fellow countryman Jonas Blixt, you are counting on history to be valuable.

Rory Sabbatini $7,000 – Sabbatini is South African, but he lives in Texas. He’s won here (in 2007). He’s seen a bit of revival this year though it’s on hold recently with seven cuts missed in his last nine tourneys. He profiles well as he’s 16th in par 4 scoring and 38th in GIR.

Michael Thompson | $7,000 – Thompson has played at Colonial the last three years, made the cut each of those years and was T10 last year. He’s alternated cuts made and missed over his last five.

John Peterson | $6,900 – Peterson’s only trip here was in 2013 when he finished T26. He’s made 15 of 16 cuts this season with his only miss back in February at the Northern Trust. He doesn’t have a top 10 this year, but he has five top 20 finishes on the season including three in his last four tournaments. He also rates sixth in my statistical analysis as he’s 16th in par 4 scoring, 45th in GIR, 22nd in driving accuracy and 44th in distance from center of the fairway. Vegas says he’s got the 23rd best chance to win, while he rates only 75th in salary on DK – a difference of 52 spots. He grew up in Fort Worth playing this course.

Jonas Blixt | $6,800 – Blixt had a T10 and a T11 here in 2012 and 2013, but did not participate in the tournament last year. He has nothing statistically to recommend him. He has missed four straight cuts on the PGA Tour. But, before that streak he finished T28 at the Masters and T25 at the SHO which is also held in Texas. You are counting on history to guide Blixt to the weekend.

Martin Laird | $6,800 – Laird is a perfect four for four at Colonial including two top tens. His recent mediocre form will (last six tourneys, five cuts, none better than T33) keep him off the radar for me. But, he profiles great as he’s 19th in par 4 scoring, 35th in distance from center of the fairway and 37th in GIR.

Chris Stroud | $6,800 – Three straight cuts made here with no finish worse than T14. He missed the cut last week at the Wells Fargo, so he’s not at the top of anyone’s mind. He’d made four straight cuts prior to that miss. He’s a horse for the course.

Jon Curran | $6,700 – I was surprised to see Curran near the top of my statistical review of this week’s tourney. He’s eighth in distance from center of the fairway, 81st in par 4 scoring, 80th in GIR and 31st in driving accuracy. He doesn’t have form on his side, but he could sneak into the weekend.

Bo Van Pelt | $6,600 – Oh, Mr. Van Pelt, you sure do seem like you’ve found some game. And in time to tee it up at Colonial where he is 11 for 11 in cuts made with three top 10s and four top 20s in the last five years. He’s shown some glimpses recently including a T9 at the RBC and four of five cuts made.

Keith Clearwater | $6,500 – Clearwater has played here 17 times and made the cut twice. Impressive. Oh, he won back in 1987. But, still, no thanks.

John Huh | $6,400 – Huh is like Geoff Ogilvy in that he seems underpriced for his odds to win (he’s 34 spots lower than he should be). He missed the cut at Colonial last year, but he had a T11 and T5 in his other two appearances. He’s alternated made and missed cuts the last four weeks, but had a run of five straight cuts made prior to that including two top 20s. He’s an accurate driver (15th) and is a bit above average on par 4s (81st).

Corey Pavin | $6,300 – Obligatory Pavin mention as he won here in the past. He’s made 13 of 18 cuts, but missed three of his last four.

Bryce Molder | $6,000 – Molder has made four of five cuts at Colonial including a T5 in his first trip here in 2010. He’s made three cuts in a row on Tour and ranks 29th in par four scoring. Vegas oddsmakers have him as the 63rd favorite while he ranks 108th in salary – a difference of 49 spots. He’s not likely to win, but he’s got a great shot to make the cut and should be a staple of studs and scrubs lineups

Justin Leonard | $5,400 – Texan. Cheap.

DraftKings Scoring

Roster size: 6 Golfers

POINT SCORING

Golfers on each team will accumulate points as follows:

  • Per Hole Scoring
    • Double Eagle (DBL EAG): +20 PTs
    • Eagle (EAG): +8 PTs
    • Birdie (BIR): +3 PTs
    • Par (PAR): +0.5 PTs
    • Bogey (BOG): -0.5 PTs
    • Double Bogey (DBL BOG): -1 PT
    • Worse than Double Bogey (WORSE DBL BOG): -1 PT
  • Tournament Finish Scoring
    • 1st: 30 PTs
    • 2nd: 20 PTs
    • 3rd: 18 PTs
    • 4th: 16 PTs
    • 5th: 14 PTs
    • 6th: 12 PTs
    • 7th: 10 PTs
    • 8th: 9 PTs
    • 9th: 8 PTs
    • 10th: 7 PTs
    • 11th–15th: 6 PTs
    • 16th–20th: 5 PTs
    • 21st–25th: 4 PTs
    • 26th–30th: 3 PTs
    • 31st–40th: 2 PTs
    • 41st-50th: 1 PTs
  • Streaks and Bonuses
    • Streak of 3 Birdies of Better (MAX 1 Per Round) (3+ BIR STRK): +3 PTs
    • Bogey Free Round (BOG FREE RD): +3 PTs
    • All 4 Rounds Under 70 Strokes (ALL 4 RDS UND 70): +5 PTs
    • Hole in One (HOLE IN ONE): +10 PTs

Scoring Notes: Ties for a finishing position will not reduce or average down points. For example, if 2 golfers tie for 3rd place, each will receive the 18 fantasy points for the 3rd place finish result. Playoff Holes will not count towards final scoring, with the exception of the “finishing position” scoring. For example, the golfer who wins the tournament will receive the sole award of 1st place points, but will not accrue points for their scoring result in the individual playoff holes.

Player Lock Notes: All golfers lock at the time the first golfer tees off on day 1 of an event.

Full rules are located here for DraftKings golf.

Previous post

Fantasy Baseball Final: May 19, 2015

Next post

2015 NBA Mock Draft 1.0

No Comment

Leave a reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.