2014 Fantasy BaseballAlan HarrisonFantasy Baseball

2014 Fantasy Baseball: Potential Busts on the Mound

David_Price

The following is a list of pitchers that are currently being taken too high for my liking, so you may want to be cautious with these hurlers on draft day.

All ADP data is found in parenthesis (ADP) and taken from FantasyPros.com on February 1, 2014. All commentary reflects a 12-team league.

Note: This article is simply a preview of content that was originally published in TheFantasyFix.com’s 2014 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide. Average draft position and other data have not been updated since. You can find the draft guide here.

David Price | Rays (81) – There is no doubt that David Price has been one of the better fantasy starting pitchers over the last few seasons. But much has been said in the baseball community about the southpaw’s gradual loss of velocity on his offerings and the direct impact it has on his ability to strikeout opponents. His K% has hovered in the low-twenties for the most part of his career, but last season, it dipped to 20.4% — the lowest since Price’s 2009 campaign. It is important to note that while Price fanned fewer batters, he also allowed fewer free passes, but Steamer projects both of those numbers to go back (21.5% K%, 6% BB%) towards Price’s career rates. Despite this, the decrease in velocity, strikeouts and missed bats along with batters making more contact off of the lefty, could cause him to fall off a bit more in ‘14. Or, he could defy all of this logic and be in the Cy Young conversation again. Either way, there is very little chance the 29-year-old be on any of my rosters this year unless the value is too good to pass up.

Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees (123) – The Yankees were the lucky winner of the Masahiro Tanaka sweepstakes this offseason signing the Japanese right-hander to a seven-year, $155 million contract. On the surface, it appears to be a good deal for both parties, but it could prove to be a lot of money for a starting pitcher with a history of pitch-count issues. Jeff Passan notes that Tanaka averaged 113+ pitches per start over the past five seasons, more than any current MLB starter. Then there was the time when Tanaka started “six games in a two-week span as a 17-year-old, tossing 742 pitches at the national high school baseball tournament.” 742! Insanity. There’s a very good chance that Tanaka comes to the States and continues to be the dominant pitcher he was in Japan, a la Yu Darvish. Or he could land here and sizzle into the night like some of the other hyped up Japanese starters, who no longer remember.

At any rate, the “unknown” parlayed with the history of arm abuse will cause me to stay away from Tanaka unless the price is right. I’d rather use that selection to grab Anibal Sanchez, Jordan Zimmermann, Gerrit Cole, Mat Latos, Michael Wacha or even Alex Cobb who all have similar average draft positions.

Koji Uehara | Red Sox (85) – Uehara was incredible last season. He converted 21-of-25 saves with a 38.1% K% and a miniscule 3.4% BB. And with all the success Mariano Rivera had into his late-thirties, it’s hard to say that Uehara, entering his age-39 season, will not experience success simply because of that. It’s simply a combination of the age, injury history and the cost of acquiring the reliever in about the seventh round of a 12-teamer.

Travis Wood | Cubs (272) – Wood is a low-strikeout, higher (than we would like) walk guy, that appeared to pitch pretty well over his head last season — 3.11 ERA — according to the advanced ERA estimators xFIP (4.50), FIP (3.89) and SIERA (4.50). Velocity on each of his offerings took a dip last season as well, despite missing bats at a career rate (7.7% SwStr%). While anyone with this late of an ADP is difficult to classify as a bust, but there are plenty of arms with more upside I’d be targeting this late in the draft.

You can find this article and 20+ more like it in our 2014 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide!

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