2015 Fantasy BaseballAlan HarrisonFantasy Baseball

2015 Fantasy Baseball, Week 5 Tools of the Trade: Nelson Cruz Is On Fire

TheFantasyFix.com’s “Tools of the Trade” is a unique guide for owners to use while attempting to make an even trade with their league-mates in a standard 12-team mixed, 5×5 head-to-head or rotisserie redraft league.

The values present in this guide are simply the basis for a trade. A full-blown analysis of each team’s strengths and weaknesses are essential prior to proposing or accepting a trade offer.

How to use the guide: Ideally, owners will agree to a trade that will aid both sides and stay within $2-3 of each other in a one-for-one and $4-5 in a multi-player deal, according to our chart. Players not noted should be considered $1 players.

Here’s the chart:

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You can also download the chart, here.

Trading isn’t easy. It’s fun, but not easy. Remember that you don’t have to “win” the trade in order to pull the trigger. If you’re improving your team, then you should make the deal.

Nelson Cruz is off to a blistering start, so some may look to capitalize on the potential return on investment he may demand in your league’s trade market. Is the .340/.382/.796 slash with 14 homers and 26 runs batted in sustainable? Um, probably not. Cruz currently boasts a 31.8% HR/FB% –meaning, just about one in every three balls he belts into the air results into a home run — versus a career 17.8% HR/FB%. The homer pace should slow a bit going forward.

Cruz overachieving a bit and plays in a home park thats historically less advantageous for home runs, but so far he’s doing most of his damage on the road (11-of-14 HRs away from Safeco), so some of the production may actually be sustainable. Steamer’s rest of season projections suggest a .257/.315/.483 with 25 homers 76 batted in and four stolen bases.

You’ve already capitalized on close to a third of his season-long production in just over a month’s time. Is it worth it to hold on to see what could happen going forward, or is it time to cash in? It all depends on the return. Let’s see what some readers are getting in return for the Mariners’ outfielder:

According to the chart, this trade seems like a coup. But unlike Cruz, David Ortiz hasn’t exactly hit his stride yet. With just four homers through five weeks of the season and a HR/FB% (13.3%) that sits well below his career average of 18.5% HR/FB%, some may believe the best is yet to come for Big Papi. I think this is a deal that seems to be more fair than the chart would indicate, so I’m fine with it. Team’s positional needs obviously play a part in this as well.

Have a question about our Week 5 Tools of the Trade? Leave it in the comments below.

The concept for the this trade value chart has been adapted from Dave Richard’s fantasy football work at CBS.

All of our statistics are courtesy of our friends at FanGraphs .

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2 Comments

  1. Trading Lost
    May 5, 2015 at 4:49 pm

    I love this chart even if I disagree with some values. How would you adjust the values for a points league?

  2. May 6, 2015 at 11:59 am

    Thanks!

    The chart isn’t perfect and it’s definitely not a “one size fits all” that’s for sure, but it’s a good foundation for most formats. Now that we’re a month into the season, I’ll be able to better adjust for opponents and position. I have noticed that the model is definitely bias to recent events, but some of your opponents may be as well, so this could work well in your favor if you use it correctly.

    At this time, the chart based on 12-team mixers with a traditional 5×5 scoring format. You’d have to download the chart and manually adjust for your league’s settings. Add a buck here, subtract a buck there etc..