This marks the end of the VORP revisited series. With the end comes this one piece of advice: it is dangerous to use any one piece of information exclusively during your draft. Statistics are tools. If you follow them down the rabbit hole, you usually wind up either in the cellar or somewhere near it. If you use this as just one of many tools at your disposal, then you will be in the right frame of mind.
In the last edition, we started grouping the players where their adjusted VORP scores tended to clump together. That’s a key point to remember. The order of these players is not so important as remembering which group they belong in. Sometimes you can wait a while to get that second tier guy. Sometimes, one of those first tier guys aren’t recognized as such. It happened in my last draft at this position. We’ll separate the group into four tiers. In the middle, we’ll throw in the prospects that don’t really fit the VORP model just yet. [Read more…]