DraftKings.com Team of the Day

Today I’m playing in the Double Up! contest on DraftKings. I’m playing in the late contest. Don’t forget to get your deposit bonus here.

Starting Pitchers – The Options

Let’s start by eliminating the following guys from consideration:

• Moore: Bad ballpark, too many walks early this season.
• Blanton: Why in god’s name is he the 4th most expensive pitcher?
• Floyd: Actually think he’s going to be OK this season, but would prefer him on the road.
• Fife: Only 30+ big league innings and had ERA above 4.00 at AAA.
• Francis: Not in Coors, but still no.
• Brad Peacock: You can’t trust any Houston starter except maybe Lucas Harrell.
• Alex Sanabia: No strikeouts skills, little chance of getting a win.
• Scott Kazmir: Just, no.

That leaves Felix, another Felix, Miley, Santana, Zito, Peralta, and Wood. Let’s throw out Felix simply because the cost is just so prohibitive. If you draft him, it saps your budget. I also want to throw out Doubront. I like him more than most and love this matchup, but the cost seems high. He’s $1,400 more expensive that Miley (more on him in a second), and I also prefer to start him on the road.

Miley has been fantastic this season. He has a 2.77 ERA that is backed up by a 3.36 xFIP. He has a 15.5 K%-BB% and 50% GB%, both of which are solid marks. His swinging strike rate is up as well, so the jump in strikeouts seems believable. This is the easy choice of the day for me.

The next decision was whether to go for one of the three mid-tier options left or to just go cheap with Wood. Ultimately, I decided to go cheap. Wood is going for $5,000, which is the cheapest price that pitchers go for on DraftKings. His current 2.08 ERA is far from legitimate. His xFIP and SIERA are well over 4.00, and his BABIP is super low at .222. He’s going to regress. But the matchup at Miami is as sweet as matchups get. So I’m banking on the regression starting a little later. I want the extra $2,000+ I can save by selecting Wood to spend on hitting.

If you don’t trust Wood, I’d probably go with Santana out of the trio of him, Zito, and Peralta. Santana has simply been a revelation so far this season. He has a 2.48 ERA backed up by a 3.40 SIERA. His strikeout and walk skills have been excellent as evidenced by his 18.2 K%-BB%. He’s been a little lucky with stranding runners and will regress somewhat, but if his skills hold up, the floor won’t fall out from underneath him.

Lineup

C: Wilin Rosario, $4,500 – I hate to start Rosario against a pitcher I’m starting (Miley), but he’s the best option behind the dish today. He’s not in Colorado, but he’s great against lefties.

1B: Eric Hosmer, $4,300 – Ubaldo Jimenez has been one of the worst starters at holding runners on over the last few years, so Hosmer might be able to swipe a bag here. Throw in the favorable platoon matchup and this seems like a solid start.

2B: Jose Altuve, $4,800 – Good platoon matchup, good ballpark.

3B: Kyle Seager, $3,700 – I had to start someone against Joe Blanton, right? Seager seemed like a good choice given the cheap price and the favorable platoon matchup.

SS: Everth Cabrera, $3,400 – I needed someone cheap. And speed guys can give you eight or nine points if they can swipe a bag. Could be decent return here.

OF: Jacoby Ellsbury, $5,900 – Love Jacoby at home, love him against a Houston righty.

OF: Alex Gordon, $5,200 – See: Hosmer, Eric

OF: A.J. Pollock – $4,500 – Jeff Francis throws a lot of changeups and doesn’t throw them particularly well (he had a negative pitch value with that pitch last year). Pollock produced above average results against changeups last year.