2013 Fantasy Baseball Daily Fix: July 9, 2013
Instead of just giving you one lineup for the DraftKings Team of the Day, I thought it would be helpful to give you options at various price points at each position. I like to spend big on pitching and find value at the plate, but if you like to do things the other way around, you can do so with these recommendations. But I have included asterisks next to the names of players on my team for the day.
Luxury pick: Adam Wainwright ǀ $12,100 ǀ vs. Astros – Wainwright, the leader among starters in WAR, will get Houston who has the 2nd worst wRC+ against right-handed pitching. He’s the most expensive option of the day, but he’s as close to a 20-point plus lock as you can get.
Reasonable and reliable pick: Cole Hamels* ǀ $9,800 ǀ vs. Nationals – The Nationals are just horrendous against left-handed pitching. They have a 71 wRC+ against left-handers, which is the second worst mark in the league.
Cheapest guy I can pick: Dan Straily* ǀ $6,600 ǀ @ Pirates – Straily essentially has league average strikeout and walk rates, but his swinging strike rate (11.3) is well above league average (9.2%). He has the potential to really increase they strikeout rate, and if he does, you would expect his ERA and xFIP to end up below 4.00. And the potential for strikeouts today is above average as he’ll face the Pirates who have the 5th highest K% against right-handers like Straily.
A quick note on how I pick hitters before we get to the lineup. My basic strategy when picking hitters is very simple. I’m looking for a guy I know is capable of being a good hitter who is facing a bad pitcher of the opposite handedness. And if the hitter happens to have been performing well lately, or if they game is in a favorable ballpark to hitters, that’s a bonus. If I name a player below, you can assume he meets these criteria. I’ll only highlight a few of the selections rather than repeating the same analysis for each player.
Cheapest guy I can pick: Victor Martinez* ǀ $3,500 ǀ vs. Jose Quintana – Martinez had a nice June in which he walked more than he struck out. Unfortunately, his BABIP was only .225 for the month. But it seems like he’s finally starting to get his feel back.
Cheapest guy I can pick: Josh Satin* ǀ $2,000 ǀ vs. Barry Zito – Satin is off to quite the start as he’s hitting .382 in 66 PA this year. But that average will obviously come down when his .488 BABIP comes down. But there are things to like in his numbers. He doesn’t strikeout too much (he’s right at league average), and his walk rate is more than double the league average, which is a skill he has displayed all throughout the minors. The Mets are facing a left-hander today, so I’m guessing they put him in the lineup. And because he’s a cheap as players get on DraftKings, he should be in your lineup as well.
Cheapest guy I can pick: DJ LeMahieu ǀ $3,300 ǀ vs. Eric Stults
Luxury pick: Jean Segura* ǀ $4,100 ǀ vs. Tony Cingrani – Segura remains too cheap. I don’t know how you don’t pick him at this price against a left-hander. The only reason not to pick him is that a very high percentage of people will pick him as well. If he doesn’t have a big game, you could have an advantage on a lot of people if you go another direction.
Cheapest guy I can pick: There isn’t a cheap shortstop I can really recommend today. Spend on shortstop.
Domonic Brown* ǀ $5,100 ǀ vs. Taylor Jordan
Reasonable and reliable pick: Carlos Gomez* ǀ $4,500 ǀ vs. Tony Cingrani
Cheapest guy I can pick: Eric Young ǀ $3,500 ǀ vs. Barry Zito
Oswaldo Arcia ǀ $3,300 ǀ vs. Chris Archer – By selecting Satin, there’s plenty of money to spent on my lineup today, but if you went super rich on pitching (for example, Verlander and Wainwright), then Arcia is another cheap option. He’s 14th in the league in average batted ball distance, which is proof that the kid has more power than his .168 ISO indicates.