2013 Fantasy BaseballBrett TalleyFantasy Baseball

Fantasy Baseball Daily Fix: May 21, 2013

Daily Fantasy Baseball Fix

I’ve got my DraftKings.com lineup for the day listed and discussed below. I’m playing in a Double Up! contest. Don’t forget to get your deposit bonus here. But first, some pitching notes from yesterday’s games.

Cole Hamels: 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 10 K @ Miami

Before you take these results with a huge grain of salt because of the matchup against Miami, let’s start with something that has nothing to do with the opponent. Hamels’ average fastball velocity was 93.54 and got as high as 96.53. Hamels’ average velocity for the year is 92.18. His velocity has sat in the 92.5 range for several years now, but yesterday’s start should alleviate any concerns about the minor velocity drop.

I’ve discussed Hamels at length both here and on Twitter and noted that his command of his changeup has been quite off. His change had resulted in a ball about 25% of the time in seasons past, but this year it was going for a ball about 36% of the time prior to yesterday’s start. But yesterday he threw the pitch 20 times and got 15 strikes. This is certainly a statistic that is influenced by the opponent so take it for what it’s worth. But yesterday was an encouraging day for Hamels owners regardless of his oppoenent.

Patrick Corbin: 9 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 10 K @ Colorado

Corbin was brilliant last night pitching a complete game and lowering his ERA to 1.44. He also hit the double-digit strikeout mark and pitched in Colorado. It was about as impressive as starts get.

My first reaction was to point out his .246 BABIP, 88.2% LOB% and 3.9% HR/FB. And those are still things to be noted. Some regression is coming; he’s not a 1.44 ERA pitcher because no one is.

But what I missed initially were the significant improvements he has made in skill from last year to this one. After getting 19 swings and misses last night, 16 of which came on sliders, Corbin’s swinging strike rate is now up over 10%. His K% has followed suit and risen to just over 21%. Moreover, the average velocity of his fastball and sinker are up about a full mile per hour. And his ground ball rate is just a shade under 50%.

Again, he’s not this good because no one is. But this isn’t just a fluke. Corbin’s skills are all trending in the right direction.

Julio Teheran: 8.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 4 K vs. Minnesota

Let’s start with the good stuff.

Teheran got 10 whiffs on 121 pitches last night, which is right in line with his 8.2% SwStr% this year. That’s not a great rate, but it isn’t bad either and indicates that his K% should be better than 14% where it is now. The better news is that he only issued one walk and now has a BB% under 6% in about 75 major league innings. It’s surprising because he was never able to post a walk rate anywhere near that good in the upper minors. And his ground ball rate is a solid 47%.

The bad news is that we’re simply not sure how safe Teheran’s spot in the rotation is. Brandon Beachy is due back in the middle of June, and it’s unclear who will get the boot upon his return. Tim Hudson probably isn’t going anywhere despite his 5.12 ERA, and he probably shouldn’t because his xFIP and SIERA are safely under 4.00. Kris Medlen hasn’t pitched as well as his 3.02 ERA would indicate, but he’s not going anywhere either. Paul Maholm has been solid if not totally consistent and deserves to stay in the mix. And staff ace Mike Minor certainly isn’t going anywhere (h/t to the newest member of The Fix, @ben_duronio). Ultimately, it probably makes the most sense to send Teheran back down to AAA until the Braves need him again.

DraftKings.com Team of the Day

Before we get to the team of the day, please take note of this SPECIAL OFFER. For any FIRST-TIME depositor at DraftKings, if you deposit at least $25, you will receive an extra $10 from DraftKings. That’s right. Click on this link, deposit a minimum of $25 and receive a bonus $10. Please allow for a few days for the extra money to be processed to your account.

My strategy lately has been simple. Spend money on pitchers and make sure you get some solid production there since pitchers put up the biggest point totals. Then find hitters with favorable matchups, both in the lefty-righty sense and against bad pitchers. All hitters below have a favorable platoon matchup for the day (except Votto).

Position Name Salary Matchup
P Stephen Strasburg $9,900 @ San Francisco
P Adam Wainwright $9,800 @ San Diego
C Brian McCann $3,400 vs. Mike Pelfrey
1B Joey Votto $4,400 vs. Jon Niese
2B Kyle Seager $3,900 vs. Jerome Williams
3B Will Middlebrooks $3,200 vs. Jose Quintana
SS Starlin Castro $3,600 vs. Wandy Rodriguez
OF Alex Gordon $4,300 vs. Bud Norris
OF Matt Joyce $4,000 vs. Ramon Ortiz
OF Andy Dirks $3,500 vs. Corey Kluber

 

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