2013 Fantasy BaseballBrett TalleyFantasy BaseballFront Office

2013 Fantasy Baseball: OF Projections and Roto Ratings (#1 – #25)

braun tall
Source: Norm Hall/Getty Images North America

This is the fourth installment of our projection series. We are posting a series of articles in which we project the roto stats for all hitters who could be useful in mixed leagues. The projections and “Roto Ratings” for each player are available to those who subscribe to our premium content via our “Front Office” package. Today we have outfielders ranked #1 through #25. We will have #26 through #50 on Wednesday and #51 through #75 on Friday.

Big thanks to my buddy Brian Sager (@TheRealSAG) for helping me develop this idea and for talking through the whole thought process with me.

When analyzing a player’s Fangraphs page, you sort of automatically project the stats that you think the player will have in the upcoming season. But because you can’t memorize loose projections for 300+ players, you have to repeatedly go back to a player’s page and go through the mental process of projecting them again. But as a service to our premium content subscribers, I have decided to do the projections myself and make them available on the site.

The first step in the process is simply to project a range of possible outcomes for each player while assuming he plays a full season. To project those possible outcomes I use a variety of stats. To project batting average I factor in plate discipline skills (K%, BB%, Contact%, Swing%, Z-swing%, O-Swing%) and batted ball profiles (LD%, GB%, FB%).  To predict home runs I again use the batted ball profiles as well as HR/FB rate from past years. To predict runs, RBI and steals I consider past performance in those categories, stolen base success rate, and where a player will be hitting in the lineup.

Every player can’t play every day, so you have to approximate how many games you think the player will miss and then fill in those games missed with the stats of the type of guy you might find on the waiver wire. To find that replacement level, I took the stats from the outfielders that were owned in less than 70% but more than 30% of ESPN leagues at the end of last year and averaged their stats. A replacement level guy in the outfield  will give you the following stat line over the course of a season:

Category

AVG

HR

SB

R

RBI

Stats

.270

14

12

59

54

 

The next step is to take the stats you think you’ll get from a player for the amount of games you project him to play once you factor in injury risk and playing time concerns. For example, I projected Josh Hamilton for 135 games, so I multiplied all my projections for him by 0.83 (135 games is 83% of 155 games). Then I took my replacement level stat line and multiplied all those numbers by the remaining 0.17. Then you add those two numbers together to get the final stat line you’d expect to get from 135 games from Hamilton and 20 games from a replacement level player. Hamilton’s projection after accounting for playing time and adding in a replacement player for his games missed looks like this:

Name

G

PA

AVG

HR

SB

R

RBI

Josh Hamilton

155

676

.276-.284

30-34

5.0-8

92-96

98-104

135

589

0.279

30

7

89

95

 

After I got my final stat line, I decided to come up with a formula to use the projections to do rankings. This system I came up with is admittedly crude, but I think it does a pretty decent job of ranking the players.

I plan on ranking about 200 hitters, so I took the 200 hitters with the most plate appearances last season and created tiers for each roto category. For example, 20 guys hit above .307 last year. The next 20 guys hit between .293 and .306. So if I projected a guy to hit .308, I assigned him 10 points for average. If I projected him to hit between .293 and .306, I assigned him nine points, etc, etc. Because I projected ranges, I used the midpoint to see which tier someone fit into. I projected Ryan Braun to hit between .305 and .313. The midpoint there was .309. That fell within the first tier so I assigned Braun ten points for average. Below are the tiers I used:

 

AVG HR SB R RBI
10 >.307 >31 >29 >93 >97
9 .293-.306 25-30 20-28 86-92 86-96
8 .286-.292 23-24 14-19 81-85 78-85
7 .275-.285 19-22 11.0-13.0 74-80 72-77
6 .270-.274 16-18 7.0-10.0 69-73 65-71
5 .260-.269 14-15 5.0-6.0 65-68 59-64
4 .250-.259 12.0-13.0 3.0-4.0 59-64 55-58
3 .241-.249 9.0-11.0 2 54-58 49-54
2 .229-.240 6.0-8.0 1 47-53 40-48
1 <.229 <6 0 <46 >39

 

 

 

 

 

 

After I assigned a player a point total for each individual category I added them all up and gave each player a score which I am calling their “Roto Rating.” Below are the projections and Roto Ratings for my outfielders ranked #1 through #25. Enjoy!

[am4show have=’p4;p7;p3;’ guest_error=’Front Office’ user_error=’Front Office’ ]

Name

G

PA

AVG

HR

SB

R

RBI

Total

Ryan Braun

155

681

.305-.313

34-38

25-29

102-107

110-114

10

10

9

10

10

49

Mike Trout

155

713

.298-.306

25-29

42-46

111-117

85-89

9

9

10

10

9

47

Matt Kemp

155

653

.293-.299

26-29

21-27

94-98

94-98

9

9

9

10

9

46

Carlos Gonzalez

155

663

.298-.305

28-31

19-23

91-95

94-99

142

608

0.299

28

20

90

93

9

9

9

9

9

45

Andrew McCutchen

155

665

.287-.293

25-28

18-22

90-94

94-98

8

9

9

9

9

44

Justin Upton

155

677

.284-.290

22-25

18-22

91-95

89-93

8

8

9

10

9

44

Giancarlo Stanton

155

642

.273-.279

41-44

5.0-6

85-89

102-108

148

613

0.276

41

6

86

102

7

10

5

9

10

41

Jose Bautista

155

672

.256-.264

43-46

8.0-10

96-101

98-103

148

642

0.261

43

9

97

98

5

10

6

10

10

41

Adam Jones

155

651

.281-.288

25-29

10.0-14

89-94

92-96

7

9

7

9

9

41

Jason Heyward

155

668

.266-.272

26-28

16-20

94-98

84-88

5

9

8

10

9

41

Josh Hamilton

155

676

.276-.284

30-34

5.0-8

92-96

98-104

135

589

0.279

30

7

89

95

7

9

6

9

9

40

Matt Holliday

155

669

.288-.294

24-27

3.0-4

90-94

97-101

8

9

4

9

10

40

Yoenis Cespedes

155

649

.283-.289

27-30

18-22

78-82

93-97

142

594

0.285

27

19

78

92

7

9

8

7

9

40

Bryce Harper

155

672

.274-.280

21-25

19-22

99-105

66-72

148

642

0.277

23

20

100

68

7

8

9

10

6

40

Jay Bruce

155

644

.252-.256

32-35

7.0-9

87-93

96-100

4

10

6

9

10

39

Shin-Soo Choo

155

703

.282-.290

16-20

19-23

97-103

70-74

148

674

0.285

18

21

98

71

7

6

9

10

6

38

Austin Jackson

155

698

.293-.297

14-17

13-17

108-112

63-67

148

667

0.294

15

15

107

64

9

5

8

10

5

37

Alex Rios

155

632

.277-.283

18-20

18-21

78-83

82-86

148

603

0.279

19

19

79

83

7

7

8

7

8

37

B.J. Upton

155

660

.245-.250

23-26

26-30

74-78

85-89

3

8

9

7

9

36

Jacoby Ellsbury

155

687

.281-.287

12.0-16

32-37

90-95

60-65

135

598

0.282

14

32

88

61

7

5

10

9

5

36

Curtis Granderson

155

675

.238-.244

33-37

9.0-13

95-99

92-96

120

557

0.248

30

11

88

85

3

9

7

9

8

36

Norichika Aoki

155

694

.286-.290

13-15

24-28

93-97

56-60

8

5

9

10

4

36

Alex Gordon

155

695

.280-.288

15-18

8.0-12

90-94

75-79

7

6

6

9

7

35

Carlos Beltran

155

635

.268-.276

18-23

7.0-10

77-81

86-92

142

582

0.272

20

9

77

88

6

7

6

7

9

35

Nelson Cruz

155

641

.262-.268

27-30

8.0-11

77-81

86-92

135

559

0.266

27

10

76

84

5

9

6

7

8

35

 

You can follow Brett on Twitter @TheRealTAL.

[/am4show]

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1 Comment

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