Brett TalleyFantasy Baseball

2013 Fantasy Baseball Daily Fix: July 23, 2013

Daily Fantasy Baseball Fix

Instead of just giving you one lineup for the DraftKings Team of the Day, I thought it would be helpful to give you options at various price points at each position. I like to spend big on pitching and find value at the plate, but if you like to do things the other way around, you can do so with these recommendations. But I have included asterisks next to the names of players on my team for the day.

I’m playing in the Daily Dollar today, which you can sign up for here. And don’t forget to get your deposit bonus here.

Starting Pitchers

Luxury pick: Shelby Miller vs. Phillies, $10,900

Reasonable and reliable picks: Jarrod Parker* @ Astros , $9,200 and Patrick Corbin* vs. Cubs, $8,700  – The main reason I’m choosing these guys is matchup. Parker gets the Astros who have the 2nd worst wRC+ vs. right-handers like Parker, and Corbin gets the Cubs who have the 12th worst wRC+ vs. left-handers like Corbin as well as the 7th worst strikeout rate vs. LHP. The other reason I’m picking them is the climate controlled conditions in which each starter will be pitching. It’s hot as hell in Houston and Arizona, but the retractable roof does wonders to mitigate the hot temperatures that lead to more scoring on average as well as potentially damaging wind conditions.

Cheapest guy I can pick: Rick Porcello @ White Sox, $6,000 – The Sox have the 4th worst wRC+ vs. right-handers. As for Porcello, if you take out his starts against the Angels, his ERA would be 3.53. Sure, you can’t take out those starts. But you can expect him to be better against teams that aren’t as good as the Angels who have the second best wRC+ vs. right-handers. The White Sox clearly aren’t as good as the Angels.

A quick note on how I pick hitters before we get to the lineup. My basic strategy when picking hitters is very simple. I’m looking for a guy I know is capable of being a good hitter who is facing a bad pitcher of the opposite handedness. And if the hitter happens to have been performing well lately, or if they game is in a favorable ballpark to hitters, that’s a bonus. If I name a player below, you can assume he meets these criteria. I’ll only highlight a few of the selections rather than repeating the same analysis for each player.

Catcher

Luxury pick: Joe Mauer* vs. Tommy Hanson, $4,100 – It’s hard to pass up a good left-handed hitter facing Tommy Hanson.

Reasonable and reliable pick: John Jaso, $3,800

Cheapest guy I can pick: Rob Brantly, $3,600

First Basemen

Luxury pick: Edwin Encarnacion, $5,200

Reasonable and reliable pick: Justin Morneau* vs. Tommy Hanson, $4,000 – Did I mention it’s hard to pass up a good left-handed hitter facing Tommy Hanson. Morneau isn’t necessarily a good hitter anymore, but Tommy Hanson can make any hitter look good.

Cheapest guy I can pick: Justin Smoak $3,500

Second Basemen

Luxury pick: Jason Kipnis, $5,000

Reasonable and reliable pick: Daniel Murphy* vs. Kris Medlen, $4,000

Cheapest guy I can pick: Dustin Ackley, $3,500

Third Basemen

Luxury pick: Manny Machado, $4,700

Reasonable and reliable pick: Kyle Seager* vs. Zach McAllister, $4,300  – Third base has turned out to be one of the most top heavy positions this year. There are so many good third basemen in the AL, that choosing the backup to Miguel Cabrera in the All-Star game was tough. Adrian BeltreJosh Donaldson, Manny Machado and Evan Longoria were all in the discussion, but you wouldn’t have been crazy to throw Seager into the conversation. Thanks to a roto line of .286, 16 HR, 3 SB, 57 R, and 46 RBI, Seager is right behind Machado and Longoria on ESPN’s player rater. But Seager is consistenly cheaper than those other guys, and today is no exception. The benefit of Seager is that he’s the only one of these third basemen that hits from the left side, so he has a favorable platoon advantage much more frequently.

Cheapest guy I can pick: Matt Dominguez, $3,400

Shortstops

Luxury pick: Everth Cabrera, $5,200

Reasonable and reliable pick: J.J. Hardy, $4,100

Cheapest guy I can pick: Jonathan Villar* vs. Jarrod Parker, $2,000  – I hate using hitters facing pitchers I’m starting, but it’s hard to pass up on Villar at the cheapest possible price for a hitter. DraftKings does this with call ups. They take way too long to raise the price on the prospects. And in some instances they’re too late on the first day the kid is called up. Villar has a nice power/speed combo 29 home runs and 84 steals over 1,129 plate appearances at AA and AAA.

Outfielders

Luxury picks: Jacoby Ellsbury* vs. Roberto Hernandez, $5,200 – As you can see, the middle-of-the-road options are generally where you end up, but thanks to picking Villar, I can splurge on a big hitter here with Ellsbury against the right-handed Hernandez.

Bryce Harper, $5,200

Reasonable and reliable picks: Alejandro de Aza* vs. Rick Porcello, $4,400  – As I mentioned above, I kind of like Porcello today, but it’s hard to pass up de Aza against a right-hander when he’s hitting .278 with a power/speed combo.

Michael Brantley, $4,200

Cheapest guys I can pick: Raul Ibanez* vs.  $3,700 vs. Zach McAllister – I can’t believe he has 24 home runs.

David Lough, $3,200

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