Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation as well as the best hitters to use for Wednesday’s 11-game evening slate on DraftKings.

Pitcher Rankings

After the jump we’ll take a look at each of my top 10 projected pitchers for the evening. My projections are derived from ZiPS projections which are cut down to a per-game basis and then adjusted for ball park and matchup.

1. Max Scherzer – $13,200

Scherzer had six starts in May. In two of those starts he allowed a combined 12 runs and in the other four starts he allowed only half that many runs with 47 strikeouts and just three walks. Talk about a strange month. His two bad starts had one thing in common: a team that ranks top five in wRC+ vs. RHP. Tonight he’ll face the Phillies who rank 27th in that same statistic. It seems pretty safe to expect the good version of Scherzer tonight. He should maybe be a few hundred bucks cheaper than he is, but the price tag is pretty appropriate.

2. Felix Hernandez – $11,000

Felix’s matchup with San Diego is obviously great, but meh. Felix’s strikeout and walk rates are below average, likely because he has lost 2 mph off his fastball and may be pitching hurt. I’d understand if you can’t pass on him in cash, but, at the very least, look elsewhere in GPPs.

3. Jon Lester – $9,900

Lester’s xFIP and SIERA are both a full run higher than his ERA, so he’s likely pitching over his head to some degree. But a look at his peripheral numbers doesn’t offer an obvious explanation for the big gap between ERA and xFIP. His walk rate is up some but still safely better than average, and his strikeout rate is down a point from last year, but still much better than average. He has lost some swinging strikes so his strikeout rate could settle a few ticks lower, and he has traded a few ground balls for fly balls. But all in all, there aren’t any glaring red flags.

Tonight Lester faces the Dodgers who rank 22nd in wRC+ vs. LHP, but the matchup lacks some upside as they have the seventh lowest strikeout rate vs. LHP. As far as price goes, he’s a tad under-priced, so he’s definitely an option.

4. Chris Archer – $8,300

After a rough start Archer has been a bit better in his last seven starts with an ERA of 3.32, but his xFIP of 3.89 over that stretch is higher than his 3.62 xFIP for the season. He’s still walking about four batters per nine innings, primarily because he’s not throwing first pitch strikes at a high rate. The lack of control make him very hard to trust, and his matchup adds to his lack of trustworthiness. He’ll face the Royals who are slightly above average vs. RHP and have a well below average strikeout rate. The price tag and his strikeout ability maybe make him a GPP play but not a great option.

5. Masahiro Tanaka – $10,400

The only thing not to like in Tanaka’s numbers is his 20.9 percent strikeout rate, which isn’t far above league average, but that rate is sure to rise. Tanaka’s swinging trike rate is 12.1 percent and of the 13 qualified starters who had a rate that high last year the lowest strikeout rate among them was 23.7 percent, with most having a strikeout rate much higher than that. He has a decent strikeout matchup today against the Jays who have the ninth highest strikeout rate vs. RHP, and they’re not overly dangerous with essentially an average wRC+ vs. RHP. The projections embedded at the bottom of this page don’t love Tanaka and thus have him as being over-priced. But the strikeout upside could make him worth a GPP slot.

6. Robbie Ray – $8,900

Ray’s price tag is confusing. He has a 4.67 ERA on the season, and he’s not on some kind of hot streak or anything. DK’s pricing model tends to be based more on past performance than it does on matchup, but perhaps the matchup is baked into his price because it’s a good one. He’ll face the Astros who have the third highest strikeout rate vs. LHP and only rank 18th in wRC+ vs. LHP. Ray has a 24.8 percent strikeout rate, so combined with Houston’s whiff-happy ways, there’s some strikeout upside here. So once again, this could be a GPP option, but it’d be a much more appealing option if his price tag was $1,000 or so cheaper.

7. Matt Shoemaker – $7,100

Another GPP option! Shoemaker’s 5.96 ERA is concerning, but his xFIP and SIERA are both under 4.00 thanks to strikeout and walk rates that are safely better than average. As was the case last year he has been hurt by the long ball, and that may keep him from getting his ERA under 4.00, but his ERA has to come down to some significant degree anyway. The matchup is tough against the Tigers who rank seventh in wRC+ vs. RHP, but there is strikeout upside as Detroit has the eighth highest strikeout rate vs. RHP. We’ll get to some cheaper options who might have more value potential, but Shoemaker is a bit under-priced himself.

8. Mike Fiers – $6,200

Fiers’ strikeout and walk rates are strange. His strikeout rate has dropped seven points from last season despite his swinging strike rate only being one point lower than it was last year. And his walk rate is less than half of what it was last year despite his first pitch strike rate being lower than it was last year and his zone percentage not being that much higher. Expect both rates to trend back towards what they were last year on some level. He got torched his last time out and his ERA is 5.20, but his 3.75 xFIP is encouraging. His matchup with Arizona is virtually average in terms of both wRC+ and strikeout rate, but his salary is below average for the day which gives him some value potential.

9. Mike Bolsinger – $5,000

Bolsinger’s appeal, if he has any, is only about price. In 32 career starts he’s been slightly worse than average (4.25 ERA, 3.70 xFIP), and his matchup obviously isn’t a good one against the Cubs. But he is the fifth cheapest pitcher of the day and the only one of the five guys priced at 5K or lower that you could make some reasonable case for, so he is a salary relief option. His strikeout and walk skills are close to league average, and if he could turn in a performance somewhat close to average, he’d turn out to be a value.

10. Danny Duffy – $5,700

Duffy is actually my #14 projected pitcher today, but he’s a better option than some of the guys projected above him because of strikeout upside. Duffy has struck out more than a batter per inning in three starts this season, and tonight he’ll face the Rays who have the seventh highest strikeout rate vs. LHP. They also have the second best wRC+ vs. LHP, so this is a dangerous matchup, but the value potential is there.

Hitting Options

Boston Red Sox – The Red Sox lead the league in wRC+ vs. RHP and will face RHP Mike Wright tonight, he of the 5.05 ERA and 4.59 xFIP. Lefties have a much higher BABIP against him than righties, but his hard hit rate allowed and strikeout and walk rates are similar against hitters from both sides. That’s nice for stacking purposes. David Ortiz and double donger from yesterday Mookie Betts are the highest projected hitters on the team, and left-hander Travis Shaw is a nice value.

Stack suggestion: Mookie Betts (expected lineup slot: 1), Dustin Pedroia (2), David Ortiz (4), Hanley Ramirez (5), Travis Shaw (6)

Colorado Rockies – The Rox dropped 17 on the Reds last night, and they’ll have a chance to do more damage tonight against John Lamb who has an ERA of 6.14 in 15 career starts. The left-handed Lamb has been even worse against left-handed hitters in his career than righties, so any kind of stack is in play tonight. That said, the right-handers are still your best bets with Nolan Arenado being an obvious choice at a reasonable price point and Trevor Story being a good bet to bounce back from his 0-for-4 yesterday. Cheaper right-handed options include DJ Lemahieu and Dustin Garneau, while someone like Mark Reynolds is a bit over-priced.. Lefties Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon can be used in stacks but are probably best avoided as one-offs.

Stack suggestion: DJ Lemahieu (2), Nolan Arenado (3), Carlos Gonzalez (4), Trevor Story (5), Mark Reynolds (6)

Houston Astros – The left-handed Robbie Ray unsurprisingly struggles more with right-handed hitters, and the Astros can throw some solid righties at him all in a row. Leading off should be George Springer followed by Jose Altuve and then Carlos Correa. Correa is nice and cheap and a great value today. Shortly following that trio should be Evan Gattis and/or Tyler White who would round out a Houston RHH stack quite nicely.

Stack suggestion: George Springer (1), Jose Altuve (2), Carlos Correa (3), Evan Gattis (5), Tyler White (6)

Washington Nationals – The Nats rank fourth in wRC+ vs. LHP this year and get lefty Adam Morgan this evening. Through six starts Morgan is rocking a 6.67 ERA (5.21 xFIP) and giving up a homer and a half per nine innings. Between this year and last Morgan has been about as bad against lefties as he has against righties, so anyone is in play for a stack. Bryce Harper is still the best option on the team so long as he’s back in the lineup tonight. Past that, right-handers Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon and Jayson Werth are the best options, though Zimmerman is way over-priced and only usable as part of stack.

Stack suggestion: Jayson Werth (2), Bryce Harper (3), Ryan Zimmerman (5), Anthony Rendon (6), Wilson Ramos (7)

Player Rankings

Catcher

1. Brian McCann – $3,200
2. Dustin Garneau – $2,900
3. Blake Swihart – $3,500
4. Wilson Ramos – $4,000
5. Russell Martin – $2,800

First Base

1. David Ortiz – $5,500
2. Chris Davis – $4,600
3. Paul Goldschmidt – $4,800
4. Freddie Freeman – $4,000
5. Edwin Encarnacion – $3,900

Second Base

1. Jose Altuve – $5,000
2. DJ Lemahieu – $3,900
3. Daniel Murphy – $4,200
4. Brandon Phillips – $3,600
5. Devon Travis – $3,100

Third Base

1. Nolan Arenado – $4,500
2. Travis Shaw – $4,200
3. Anthony Rendon – $4,600
4. Josh Donaldson – $4,200
5. Chase Headley – $2,800

Shortstop

1. Carlos Correa – $3,600
2. Trevor Story – $5,200
3. Taylor Motter – $2,800
4. Zack Cozart – $3,700
5. Didi Gregorius – $2,800

Outfield

1. George Springer – $4,500
2. Jacoby Ellsbury – $3,800
3. Mookie Betts – $5,400
4. Bryce Harper – $4,900
5. Jayson Werth – $4,100
6. Hyun-Soo Kim – $3,600
7. Carlos Gonzalez – $4,500
8. Jose Bautista – $4,500
9. Mallex Smith – $3,600
10. Brett Gardner – $3,500

Starting Pitcher

1. Max Scherzer – $13,200
2. Jon Lester – $9,900
3. Felix Hernandez – $11,000
4. Masahiro Tanaka – $10,400
5. Chris Archer – $8,300
6. Matt Shoemaker – $7,100
7. Mike Fiers – $6,200
8. Danny Duffy – $5,700

Research Chart

Download today’s research chart from this Google Sheet.