2016 Fantasy BaseballBrett TalleyFantasy Baseball

Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy: June 20, 2016 – DraftKings & FanDuel Analysis

Below we’ve got breakdowns of each game for Monday’s nine-game evening slate on DraftKings and FanDuel along with player rankings and projections.

Game Breakdowns

After the jump we’ll break down each game on Monday night from a DFS perspective.

Giants @ Pirates

This game is all about Madison Bumgarner. Pittsburgh hitters obviously aren’t great options against MadBum, and San Francisco hitters really aren’t in play either, mainly because their best options are way overpriced. But Bumgarner is always an option when he pitches.

The Pittsburgh hitters you won’t be rostering are actually decent against left-handed pitching ranking seventh in wRC+ vs. LHP (115). But they also strike out a fair bit as they have the third highest K% vs. LHP. The strikeout upside makes Bumgarner feel like a GPP play, and the fact that Clayton Kershaw and Stephen Strasburg are around to drive ownership away from Bumgarner makes him an even more attractive GPP option. He’s not precluded from cash game use, but a GPP is the best spot to use him. His price is slightly better on DK than it is on FD.

Players in play: Madison Bumgarner

White Sox @ Red Sox

Steven Wright has no doubt been excellent this year, and his status as a knuckle baller makes him difficult to analyze. What he does well is manage contact. Of tonight’s starters he has the second lowest hard hit rate and the fourth highest soft contact rate. That’s good. But it’s hard to overlook his league average strikeout rate and worse-than-average walk rate. The lack of strikeouts makes him unappealing in GPPs, but the 2.22 ERA that his contact management begets makes him a cash consideration. However, with high price tags and other elite options available today, you should pass on Wright.

As for batters, you can’t really go with any White Sox given the matchup with Wright and the fact that they rank 25th in wRC+ vs. RHP. As for the batters with some dye in their Sox, Boston ranks first in wRC+ vs. RHP, and they’re facing RHP Miguel Gonzalez who has a 4.74 ERA. The problem with Red Sox is affording them. Putting together a Boston stack is near impossible with their price tags, and their likely popularity makes them an unappealing stack candidate anyway. Instead, use a guy or two in cash for exposure and use them as one-offs in GPP lineups if they fit. Mookie Betts is somewhat close to affordable on both sites, and Hanley Ramirez is a nice value on FD if you’re looking for exposure. If you happen to have the funds, David Ortiz is obviously a good option.

Players in play: Mookie Betts, David Ortiz, Hanley Ramirez, Dioner Navarro

Rockies @ Marlins

Carlos Gonzalez has a 140 wRC+ vs. RHP and is facing RHP Paul Clemens who is making his first career start. Even away from Coors Gonzalez is worth a look in this spot on DK where he’s only $3,800. Moving on…

Players in play: Carlos Gonzalez

Mariners @ Tigers

Maybe Steven Moya makes for a decent value option for Detroit, but this game is all about the Mariners. RHP Mike Pelfrey is on the hill for Detroit and has the second worst xFIP in the league among 97 qualified starters (Jered Weaver is the only one worse). The Mariners rank third in wRC+ vs. RHP, so this is a prime matchup for them.

Robinson Cano is a great option with his 144 wRC+ vs. RHP dating back to last season. Lefty Kyle Seager is also a great option and is a very nice value on FD. The last two times Seattle has faced a right-handed starter Leonys Martin and Seth Smith hit 1-2 in the lineup, so they’re options as well (both guys are priced better on DK). Those guys just mentioned likely hit 1-2-3-5 in the order, so if you’re stacking M’s, go ahead and include Nelson Cruz who has a 138 wRC+ vs. RHP between this year and last. The stack could also run 2-6 with Adam Lind being an option in the six-hole.

On the hill, Nate Karns has a bit of strikeout upside with a 24.5 percent strikeout rate and a matchup with the Tigers who rank 10th in K% vs. RHP. The Tigers are too dangerous for Karns to be a cash consideration, but he could have some GPP appeal thanks to the strikeouts. If he were priced better he’d be more attractive, but if you really like him, he makes sense in tournaments.

Players in play: Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager, Seth Smith, Leonys Martin, Adam Lind, Nelson Cruz (GPP only), Nate Karns, Steven Moya

Stack suggestion: Mariners 1-5

Rays @ Indians

On the surface Josh Tomlin might seem like an option. He’s got a 3.27 ERA and a good matchup with the Rays who are mid-pack in wRC+ vs. RHP with the second highest K%. But Tomlin may have some regression coming his way. Somehow he has managed to strand 77.5 percent of base runners allowed despite a 1.57 HR/9 and a 36.6 percent hard contact rate. Home runs have always been an issue for Tomlin, and his problem managing contact dates back to last season. With that fear of regression he’s hard to trust in cash games, and his 16.5 percent strikeout rate makes him ill-equipped to take advantage of Tampa’s high K rate in GPPs. As for hitters against Tomlin, Corey Dickerson and his .302 ISO against RHP is interesting given Tomlin’s issue keeping the ball in the park. But that’s about it.

Opposing Tomlin is Drew Smyly who has some appeal. Smyly ranks right up there with Bumgarner in strikeout rate with a K% in the high 20’s. He only significantly trails Kershaw and Strasburg in that stat among today’s starters. Cleveland strikes out a hair bit more than average against LHP, so Smyly could rack up some Ks in this one. With a low price tag on DK, he has some GPP appeal there. In fact, he could even work as an SP2 in cash games on DK given that Cleveland ranks 20th in wRC+ vs. LHP and there are few other cheap options that are even remotely reliable.

Cleveland’s bats also have some GPP appeal against Smyly because he is a fly ball pitcher (50.7 percent), and he’s fly ball-friendly to both left- and right-handed hitters. Guys that can hit from the right side would be the best options, but most of Cleveland’s righties and switch-hitters are over-priced tonight. Mike Napoli is priced alright on FD and Yan Gomes would be nice salary relief on DK, but that’s about it. Perhaps Juan Uribe, who has homered in consecutive games could also be good salary relief on FD if needed.

Players in play: Mike Napoli, Yan Gomes, Juan Uribe, Francisco Lindor (GPP only), Corey Dickerson, Drew Smyly

Stack suggestion: Cleveland 1-5

Orioles @ Rangers

I’m tempted to just say use Baltimore right-handed bats and move on, but I’ll linger for a moment. Derek Holland starts for the Rangers tonight, and opposing right-handers are in play any time he pitches. Dating back to last season Holland has an xFIP of 5.32 against righties, and his fly ball rate against them is fairly high at almost 43 percent. If you had to pick one player to go yard tonight, a Baltimore righty would be about the safest bet you could make.

Mark Trumbo has been struggling lately, but he’s still a very appealing play in this matchup, as is Adam Jones. Joey Rickard typically hits second against lefties, so he’s a good cheaper option, as is Jonathan Schoop who could hit in the middle third of the lineup with Manny Machado serving a suspension. Matt Wieters and J.J. Hardy are also options at their thin positions.

Players in play: Mark Trumbo, Adam Jones, Jonathan Schoop, Joey Rickard, Matt Wieters, J.J. Hardy

Stack suggestion: Some combo of Baltimore 1-6

Cardinals @ Cubs

Jaime Garcia and John Lackey might be considerations for you tonight, but pass on them. Garcia has a 5.93 ERA (4.54 xFIP) in his last six starts, while Lackey is over-priced and facing a Cardinals team that ranks second in wRC+ vs. RHP.

Chicago bats that make sense against Garcia are Kris Bryant, who is priced decently on FD, and Javier Baez, who has pop against left-handed pitching and provides decent salary relief on both sites. But the big Cub bat tonight is rookie catcher Willson Contreras. Contreras has been with the club for a few days now, but he has yet to draw a start. He did get one PA in a pinch hit role on Sunday and he promptly hit a two-run jack. He tore up Triple-A, and he’s reportedly going to make his first start on Monday. He’s minimum price on DK and only $200 above minimum on FD, so just auto-plug him into your cash lineups. He’ll presumably be a popular play, so feel free to look elsewhere in GPPs.

St. Louis left-handed bats are also in play in this one. John Lackey has been very good the last two seasons, but he’s done it by being dominant against right-handers while struggling a bit with lefties. He has an uninspiring 4.54 xFIP vs. LHH dating back to last season. Brandon Moss is destroying RHP this season to the tune of a .416 ISO, and Matt Carpenter owns righties with a 173 wRC+, partly due to the fact that he walks almost as much as he strikes out against them. Matt Adams is also faring well against righties with a 142 wRC+. And don’t forget about Kolten Wong who has been recalled after tearing up Triple-A and who hit second when the Cards faced a righty on Saturday.

Players in play: Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras, Matt Carpenter, Brandon Moss, Matt Adams, Kolten Wong

Stack suggestion: Cardinals 1-5

Angels @ Astros

This game is primarily about the Angels. RHP Jhoulys Chacin will start for LA against an Astros team than ranks 17th in wRC+ and has the third highest strikeout rate vs. RHP. Chacin’s ERA of 5.00 is unappetizing, but his xFIP is a more respectable 4.11. An abnormally low 64.9 percent strand rate is hurting Chacin, and that’s very likely to turn around quickly given that he doesn’t have an issue with home runs and generates a decent amount of soft contact. He’s very cheap across the board, so he definitely has GPP appeal with the value potential and the strikeout potential. He may even have cash appeal on DK given the scant options for a cheap SP2. The only bats to consider against Chacin are left-handed bats, which Houston lacks at the top of the order, so consider guys like Luis Valbuena and Jason Castro as salary relief options.

As for LA bats, lefties are a really good bet against Doug Fister who owns a 5.12 xFIP vs. LHH dating back to last season. Kole Calhoun is a great option as is switch-hitting Daniel Nava who has been much better from the left side in his career. And, of course, the platoon-proof Mike Trout is in play and is priced very attractively on DK.

Players in play: Jhoulys Chacin, Kole Calhoun, Mike Trout, Daniel Nava, Luis Valbuena, Jason Castro

Stack suggestion: Los Angeles 2-6

Nationals @ Dodgers

Kershaw vs. Strasburg. This is the only West Coast game of the evening, but it’s certainly worth staying up for. Kershaw obviously leads all pitchers in all relevant stats like xFIP, SIERA and K-BB%, and Strasburg leads all other pitchers going tonight in those stats. The gap between Kershaw and Strasburg is wide, and the gap between Stras and everyone else is almost as wide.

The gap in DK salary between Kershaw and Stras might be smaller than the gap in performance. Kershaw may well be too expensive and may force you to roster Strasburg instead. But if you can find a way to fit Kershaw into your lineup on DK, that’s preferable. FD is another matter. Strasburg is significantly cheaper there. Given that Stras has the better matchup as his team has been a tough matchup for lefties, he’s preferable in FD cash games. As for GPPs, it’s really hard to project which guy will see more ownership. If you’re looking to be contrarian, just fade them both.

Players in play: Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg

Player Rankings

**Players are listed according to their FD positional eligibility

Catcher

  1. Willson Contreras
  2. Matt Wieters
  3. Jason Castro (better value on FD)
  4. Yan Gomes (better value on DK)
  5. Dioner Navarro (better value on DK)

First Base

  1. Brandon Moss
  2. Matt Adams (better value on DK)
  3. David Ortiz
  4. Adam Lind (better value on FD)
  5. Hanley Ramirez (better value on FD)

Second Base

  1. Robinson Cano
  2. Matt Carpenter (only on DK)
  3. Jonathan Schoop
  4. Rougned Odor (only on FD)
  5. Kolten Wong

Third Base

  1. Kyle Seager (better value on FD)
  2. Kris Bryant
  3. Luis Valbuena
  4. Juan Uribe (better value on FD)
  5. Todd Frazier (GPP only)

Shortstop

  1. Javier Baez
  2. J.J. Hardy
  3. Carlos Correa (DK only)
  4. Brad Miller
  5. Francisco Lindor (GPP only)

Outfield

  1. Mark Trumbo
  2. Mike Trout (better value on DK)
  3. Adam Jones
  4. Kole Calhoun
  5. Carlos Gonzalez (only on DK)
  6. Seth Smith (better value on FD)
  7. Leonys Martin
  8. Corey Dickerson (better value on FD)
  9. Mookie Betts
  10. Joey Rickard
  11. Daniel Nava

Starting Pitcher

  1. Clayton Kershaw (better value on DK)
  2. Madison Bumgarner (GPP play)
  3. Stephen Strasburg(better value on FD)
  4. Jhoulys Chacin
  5. Drew Smyly (better value on DK)
  6. Nate Karns
  7. Josh Tomlin (better value on FD)

Research Chart

Download today’s research chart from this Google Sheet. Projections are derived from Fangraphs Depth Chart projections, which are cut down to a per-game basis and then adjusted for ball park and matchup.

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