Below I’ve got a discussion of the best matchups and potential stacks of the day followed by player rankings for Saturday’s eight-game evening slate of NHL contests around the industry. At the bottom of the post I’ve embedded my research chart for the day. Here is just a snippet of an old chart I’ll use to explain what you’re looking at.

First the colors. Purple/blue is amazeballs, green is great, yellow is good, orange is bad, red is awful and deep red is no effing way.

The first column that isn’t self-explanatory is the sixth one, the one that is titled ‘z’ to the right of salary. That is how far above or below average the player’s salary is compared to all other players in action today. ‘Proj.’ is a projection from my own Marcel-like projections. The ‘z’ next to the projection is how far above or below average the projection is compared to all other players in action today. And then ‘Value’ is the projection z-score minus the player’s salary z-score.

All shot attempt numbers discussed are at even strength, score-adjusted and weighted for recent performance unless otherwise noted.

And as always, make sure to check Twitter for any injury news, and check LeftWingLock for starting goalies and line combos.

Teams to Target

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Toronto at Ottawa

Ottawa has been giving up a ton of shots for a good while now, and lately their goaltending has been stopping far too few of those shots. They’ve allowed five or more goals in four of their last six games and three or more goals in seven of their last eight. The key here is whether Kyle Turris is able to return tonight. He has missed Ottawa’s last six games, but he’s a game-time decision tonight. If he plays, he makes Toronto less attractive as a play. Ottawa’s second line is already a decent possession unit you’d prefer to avoid, and Turris back on the top line would make that a decent possession line as well. But if Turris sits again, Toronto’s top line is in play as Ottawa tends to match lines up evenly at home.

For cash games, the Toronto mini-stack is Nazem Kadri and Leo Komarov. Their linemate, Michael Grabner, could be stacked with them in tournmants, but Grabner doesn’t see any power play time. Morgan Reilly joins Kadri/Komarov on the power play, so he’s an option if you roster either of those forwards.

Vancouver home to Calgary

Vancouver sunk me on Tuesday night, but it’s hard to ignore them tonight. They’ll host Calgary who is likely starting Jonas Hiller and his .882 save percentage in net, and the Flames are playing for the second night in a row. Calgary’s second line and top defensive pair are their best possession players to try and avoid. That top D pair has skated a lot with their top line this season, but they skated primarily with Calgary’s third line last night. I would imagine they’ll see plenty of time with both Calgary’s first and third line, making it tough to find an individual spot to pick on the Flames.

With no obvious matchup to exploit, it’s probably best to go with Vancouver’s most trust-worthy line, the top line. They should matchup with Calagry’s top line, who likely won’t be paired with the top D pair at all times, so the Sedins should have a nice matchup at times throughout the game. Henrik Sedin and Daniel Sedin are nice values on all sites, so they’re the mini-stack. Jannik Hansen could be stacked with them in tournaments, and Alexander Edler is the D man to pair with any of those forwards.

Colorado home to Winnipeg

Winnipeg ran into a buzzsaw against Carolina last night, and they could give up a few more goals this evening, especially if Michael Hutchinson starts in net. Winnipeg’s top two lines are pretty decent possession lines that ideally you’d avoid. Colorado tends to match lines up evenly at home, so their third line should see some work against Winnipeg’s weak third line. Colorado’s third line is currently John Mitchell, Jarome Iginla and Alex Tanguay. Iginla is the only one of them seeing power play time recently, and he’s not seeing a ton, so they may be a bit iffy for cash games. But they can provide some salary relief in cash, and they could be a nice GPP option.

Boston home to Buffalo

Buffalo’s first and third lines are not bad possession trios, but their second line, cenetered by Jack Eichel, has a couple of weak possession players on it that can be targeted. Boston tends to match lines up evenly at home, so Boston’s second line is worth considering today. They’re not values on DK or FanDraft, but they’re all pretty nice values on FD, which is the only spot they should really be rostered. Loui Eriksson and David Krejci are playing on the top power play unit, so they’re the mini-stack option. David Pastrnak is not seeing power play time, so he’s an option in a GPP stack. Torey Krug skates with that line at even stregnth and on the top power play unit, so he’s a nice option on the blue line.

Player Rankings

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Here are positional rankings for tonight’s slate. The color of each player’s salary represents their value on that site. Once again, here’s the color code: Blue is amazeballs, green is great, yellow is good, orange is bad, red is awful and deep red is no effing way.

Goalies with an asterisk next to their name are not expected to start tonight but haven’t been ruled out, so don’t count on them playing. Any players in bold have been confirmed as the starter for the day. And players with a line through their name will not be starting tonight. Make sure you always check LeftWingLock for starting goalie updates in case I am unable to update the list throughout the day.

Research Chart

You can download the research chart from this Google Sheet page here. Please keep in mind that the projections and values in the chart below are based on matchups on the team level, not on an individual level. So if you see a name in the discussion section above or the rankings above and they have a good value grade here, then they’re a solid play.

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