2013 Fantasy BaseballChris GarosiFantasy Baseball

2013 Fantasy Baseball: The Week 11 Closer Report

Things look like they are finally settling down in bullpens around the league. We have a new sheriff in town in San Diego, but he’s probably not for the long term. We have a new sheriff in town in Colorado and he’s got a chance to be for the long term. I apologize for being tardy today. I’m sure I’m see you all in detention after school.

San Diego Padres

Huston Street hit the DL on Saturday of last week with a strained left calf. Prior to his injury, Street hadn’t exactly been vintage Goose Gossage on the mound as his K% (15.5) has shrunk to a career low, his BB% (9.5) bumped up to a career high, a 4.43 ERA was masking a 7.45 FIP and a 5.01 xFIP. He’s got an unsustainable 98.7 LOB%, but if you want a silver lining he looks to be a bit unlucky with his HR/FB% of 24.1% (career 8.9%). Street looks to be on the downside of his career. Unfortunately for the Padres, he’s signed through 2014 so unless they can find a trading partner, he’ll be around a while.

Luke Gregerson is the man to own while Street is out. He was likely owned in deeper leagues as he has value as a top setup man for his strikeouts and the occasional win. Bud Black noted he’d get the majority of the work. Gregerson has always been a high ground ball, high strikeout, low walk pitcher at the major league level. He’s been a bit lucky so far this year as he sports a ridiculously low .160 BABIP (career .263). That said, he should hold the job for now and he’s almost a must own for Street owners as he certainly finds his way onto the DL more often than usual.

Dale Thayer is now the backup to Gregerson at closer. Thayer has experience at both the major and minor league levels as a closer (picking up seven saves last year for the Padres). Thayer is a solid if unspectacular veteran reliever – the kind the Padres seem to find everywhere. He’s not rosterable in anything but the deepest of leagues as Gregerson has the skills to keep the job and Street should return in short order.  He’s a name to keep in mind if the Padres are sellers at the deadline and are able to move Street.

Brad Boxberger is my dark horse in the Padres pen. He was recalled from AAA when Street hit the DL. He was a first round pick of the Cincinnati Reds in the 2009 draft and made his way to San Diego as one of the four players dealt for Mat Latos. He’s been in the bullpen since the middle of his first year in professional baseball.  He’s done some closing at the minor league level (20 saves over those four seasons), but his biggest problem has been the walk. He’s lost control at times so even with a career 12.2 K/9 rate in the minors, he’s been dogged by a BB/9 rate of 4.1. In his major league debut last year, Boxberger’s BB/9 jumped to 5.9 in 27 2/3 IP. If he can bring that down closer to his minor league rate, he has a chance to be a valuable pitcher in San Diego and a long shot for saves in the future.

Colorado Rockies

Rafael Betancourt landed on the DL on Sunday of last week with a groin injury. He attempted to pitch through it, but was unable to do so. Betancourt says he’ll need only a short stint on the DL, but he is 37. Injuries are tougher to heal as you get older. So, who do we get to see shine in the thin air of Colorado?

Rex Brothers steps into the closer’s role currently (and many a keeper league owner hopes for the future as well). Brothers is a 25 year left hander who was a first round pick of the Rockies in 2009. He’s always been a high strikeout, high walk guy with a career 29.3% K% and 12.2% BB%. He pairs that with a near 50% ground ball rate. He’s the guy while Betancourt is out and I’d grab him in every league. He’s not going to have a 0.34 ERA for the rest of the season (he hasn’t given up a HR yet in 26 1/3 IP and has a 96.9% LOB rate), but I think he has a chance to usurp Betancourt. Betancourt is only signed through 2013, but does have a cheap ($4.25M) mutual option for 2014. I can see the Rockies considering dealing Betancourt for something at the deadline or in the worst case scenario he walks at year end and Brothers inherits the role. I’d target Brothers in all leagues – both redraft and keeper leagues.

Wilton Lopez was thought by some to be the backup to Betancourt, but it looks like the Rockies want to see what they have in Brothers.  Lopez is only on a one year deal so the Rockies have very little invested in him. Lopez did pick up 10 saves last year for the Astros so he’s got some experience. And has a right hander, he could see a matchup save opportunity while Brothers is in that role. Lopez doesn’t have the stuff, in my opinion, to maintain the closer’s role long term. Moreover, the Rockies have little incentive to test him out.

Close Calls

Chris Perez may be on the “DL” a bit longer than planned. It seems his dog Brody has a serious marijuana issue. Or he has glaucoma. Either way, Perez could be in trouble with MLB if they choose to pursue a drug suspension. There has been no update on his shoulder injury, but this gives Vinnie Pestano a bit more value going forward. Continue to monitor Brett Myers’ usage in rehab to see if he’ll be an option.

Jim Henderson is due back from the DL today (Saturday). He’ll relegate Francisco Rodriguez to a setup role, though it’s clear that the Brewers see K-Rod as Henderson’s backup.

Jose Valverde struggled Friday night in a non-save situation. Again, I believe he’s got a long leash and until the Tigers starting losing games because of Papa Grande’s propensity for the long ball, he’ll stay in that role. Jim Leyland has said as much.

And no, I don’t know who the Marlins closer is right now. It feels like the ghost of Ozzie Guillen has returned and is randomly assigning bullpen guys to pitch a different inning each night. I will say that my dark horse A.J. Ramos has looked terrible lately and likely isn’t in line for saves any time soon.

Ernesto Frieri may be settling in as he’s picked up three saves in his last four appearances and more importantly has only walked one batter over those four innings. However, he did give up two home runs to Scott Van Slyke and Adrian Gonzalez on Wednesday. Frieri’s probably safe because the Angels just don’t have anyone else to take it from him.

Hector Ambriz still looks like the handcuff for Jose Veras should he get dealt.

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