2013 Fantasy BaseballChris Garosi

2013 Fantasy Baseball: The Week 17 Closer Report

Well, I’ve threatened for the last couple of weeks that I was going to put out a look at all 30 teams. So, below you’ll see what I think the bullpens for all 30 squads look like for the rest of the season. As an added bonus, I looked at who I think will be closing in 2014 for each team to help those dynasty/keeper leaguers who might be out of the race this season and looking to deal for next year and beyond.

If this format is received well, I might stick with it for the rest of the season. So, drop me a note in the comments or on Twitter to let me know what you think.

First, a quick set of definitions for the categories you’ll see below.

2013 Closer – The guy who is (or in the case of the D’backs) who I think is the current closer.
Handcuff Option – This is the guy who I believe will step into the closer role if the current closer loses his job.
Other Option – Another arm in the pen who could close if the manager chooses to go a different route.
Dark Horse Option – If all hell breaks loose in the pen, this guy could get a shot this year.
2014 Closer – This guy should be in the closer’s role on Opening Day 2014.

Finally, a big thank you to Baseball Reference, Fangraphs , MLBDepthCharts and Baseball Prospectus’ Cot’s Contracts for help in a variety of ways.

Team

2013

Closer

Handcuff

option

Other

option

Dark horse

Option

2014

Closer

Arizona

Heath Bell

Brad Ziegler

J.J. Putz

David Hernandez

J.J. Putz

Atlanta

Craig Kimbrel

Jordan Walden

Luis Avilan

Anthony Varvaro

Craig Kimbrel

Baltimore

Jim Johnson

Darren O’Day

Tommy Hunter

Brian Matusz

Not on the team

Boston

Koji Uehara

Junichi Tazawa

Matt Thornton

Rubby De La Rosa

Koji Uehara

Cubs

Kevin Gregg

Blake Parker

James Russell

Brian Schlitter

Arodys Vizcaino

White Sox

Addison Reed

Nate Jones

Matt Lindstrom

Hector Santiago

Addison Reed

Cincinnati

Aroldis Chapman

J. J. Hoover

Alfredo Simon

Sean Marshall

Aroldis Chapman

Cleveland

Chris Perez

Joe Smith

Vinnie Pestano

Cody Allen

Chris Perez

Colorado

Rafael Betancourt

Rex Brothers

Wilton Lopez

Adam Ottavino

Rex Brothers

Detroit

Joaquin Benoit

Al Alburquerque

Drew Smyly

Jose Valverde

Not on the team

Houston

Jose Veras

Wesley Wright

Jose Cisnero

Josh Fields

Jose Veras

Kansas City

Greg Holland

Aaron Crow

Tim Collins

Luke Hochevar

Greg Holland

LA Angels

Ernesto Frieri

Scott Downs

Garrett Richards

Ryan Madson

Ernesto Frieri

LA Dodgers

Kenley Jansen

Paco Rodriguez

Brandon League

Ronald Belisario

Kenley Jansen

Miami

Steve Cishek

Mike Dunn

Chad Qualls

A. J. Ramos

Steve Cishek

Milwaukee

Francisco Rodriguez

Jim Henderson

Mike Gonzalez

Brandon Kintzler

Jim Henderson

Minnesota

Glen Perkins

Casey Fien

Jared Burton

Michael Tonkin

Glen Perkins

Mets

Bobby Parnell

LaTroy Hawkins

David Aardsma

Jeurys Familia

Bobby Parnell

Yankees

Mariano Rivera

David Robertson

Joba Chamberlain

Phil Hughes

David Robertson

Oakland

Grant Balfour

Ryan Cook

Jesse Chavez

Sean Doolittle

Ryan Cook

Philadelphia

Jonathan Papelbon

Antonio Bastardo

Justin De Fratus

Joe Savery

Jonathan Papelbon

Pittsburgh

Jason Grilli

Mark Melancon

Tony Watson

Vic Black

Jason Grilli

St. Louis

Edward Mujica

Trevor Rosenthal

Kevin Siegrist

Carlos Martinez

Trevor Rosenthal

San Diego

Huston Street

Luke Gregerson

Dale Thayer

Brad Boxberger

Huston Street

San Francisco

Sergio Romo

Santiago Casilla

Jeremy Affeldt

Jose Mijares

Sergio Romo

Seattle

Tom Wilhelmsen

Oliver Perez

Yoervis Medina

Carter Capps

Tom Wilhelmsen

Tampa Bay

Fernando Rodney

Jake McGee

Joel Peralta

Jamey Wright

Jake McGee

Texas

Joe Nathan

Joakim Soria

Tanner Scheppers

Jason Frasor

Joe Nathan

Toronto

Casey Janssen

Steve Delabar

Brett Cecil

Sergio Santos

Casey Janssen

Washington

Rafael Soriano

Tyler Clippard

Fernando Abad

Erik Davis

Rafael Soriano

 

Thoughts on 2014

So why did I choose who I did for 2014. Look for a few words on each team for 2014 and the closer.

Arizona Diamondbacks
This pen is currently a mess and any of these four could close. All but Ziegler are signed in 2014 so they may all be back so we all get to go through this again next year.

Atlanta Braves
Kimbrel will be the man for a long time.

Baltimore Orioles
Johnson could be quite expensive in last year of arbitration eligiblity and it’s not clear that the Orioles will pay him. Johnson makes $6.5M this season and he’s probably due for a raise. Arbitrators won’t worry about BABIP, K% or xFIP. They’ll see 80+ saves over the last two seasons.

Boston Red Sox
I had to rewrite this section Friday night with news that Andrew Bailey has a significant shoulder injury. I thought Bailey would be the closer in 2014. Now, his 2014 is in doubt depending on the severity of the injury. Koji and Bailey are both under team control in 2014 via arbitration, but it looks like Koji is a good bet to start 2014 as the closer. Junichi Tazawa moves into the handcuff role as a result of Bailey’s injury and his value in 2014 ticks upward.

Chicago Cubs
Vizcaino is out for 2013, but I think the Cubs might give him a shot in 2014. He’s coming back from injury and it is questionable if his repetoire will hold up as a starter. The Cubs may look oustide the organization for a cheap option. Kyuji Fujikawa is due back in June or July of next season and could be an option.

Chicago White Sox
Reed is young and cheap though he does hit arbitration after this season. Jesse Crain is on the DL currently and would factor in as an option this season. Though, Crain has a good chance of being dealt (if healthy) at the deadline.

Cincinnati Reds
I’m sure we’ll go through the same Spring Training junk of Chapman being stretched out as a starter. However, I think he finds himself right back here in 2014.

Cleveland Indians
Perez has one more year of arbitration eligibility. Joe Smith is a free agent and Vinnie Pestano is still under team control via arbitration. Perez has struggled with injuries, inconsistencies and marijuana deliveries to his dog this season. That said, I think Perez is the guy in 2014, but he’ll be on the hot seat from day one.

Colorado Rockies
Betancourt has a mutual option that I can see the Rockies declining. Brothers looks to be ready and isn’t arb eligible until 2015.

Detroit Tigers
After the carousel at closer this season, the Tigers will want someone to solidfy the spot. Could we see Rodney back in Detroit?

Houston Astros
Veras has a club option for 2014 and maybe the Astros bring him back for one more season. If they don’t deal him at the deadline, he’s better than even money to be closing here in 2014. If not, it’s likely not someone on the roster who fills the gap in 2014.

Kansas City Royals
Holland heads to arbitration this off season so he may soon get too expensive for the Royals. However, that won’t be 2014. He struggled a bit early in 2013, but he’s righted the ship and has been a top 5 closer this season.

Los Angeles Angels
Frieri hasn’t been perfect, but he’s done the job. He’s still apt to have a week or two of wildness and lose the job, but he’s the most dominating option in the 2014 pen. Madson is a free agent and may have to come back on a minor league deal if he doesn’t pitch this year.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Jansen is arbitration eligible this year, but money seems to be no object for the Dodgers. He’s the best arm in that pen. I don’t care (and the Dodgers likely don’t either) that they are paying Brandon League big money to operate in low leverage situations. That’s probably where he’ll stay in 2014 at a price of $7.5M.

Miami Marlins
Cishek is arbitration eligible for the first time in 2014 so his price may go up and the Marlins don’t like to pay anyone. So, Cishek could be dealt, but until he’s dealt I’ll say he’ll be the closer in Miami again in 2014.

Milwaukee Brewers
K-Rod has to be dealt. The Brewers aren’t going anywhere and he cost them nothing. Henderson should be back next season to fill the role of closer. And I wouldn’t hold on to John Axford at this point. He’s looked lost for much of the season and probably needs some time at AAA to get things sorted out.

Minnesota Twins
Perkins has been the subject of trade rumors throughout the season, but he’s signed through 2015 with a club option for 2016 at very reasonable prices. I don’t think the Twins get enough to move him and he’s back in Minnesota for 2014.

New York Mets
Parnell is under team control through 2015 and with the ownership issues, I have to think they’d like the cost-controlled Parnell stick around.

New York Yankees
Roberston has been groomed for this role for a couple of years. Rivera has said there is no chance he returns. There is the outside chance the Yankees go back to free agency pool to snag someone, but this isn’t George Steinbrenner’s Yankees. They are a bit more fiscally responsible.

Oakland A’s
Balfour is a free agent and the type of player that the A’s might have dealt at the deadline if they weren’t in 1st place. Cook is the obvious choice as he’s got some experience in the role and has been relatively successful in the setup role. Plus, he’s a nice cheap option for the A’s.

Philadelphia Phillies
Papelbon has a diminishing strikeout rate and a contract that pays him $13M per year through 2015 and a vesting option for 2016. Unless the Phils can find someone to take this contract, he’ll be the closer for a long time until he’s no longer effective.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Grilli is signed through 2014 and the Pirates have no reason to move him out of the role. He’s been a top 5 closer this season. A nice story from this former first round pick.

St. Louis Cardinals
Mujica is a free agent and may have priced himself out of St. Louis with his solid year as a closer. I’ve put Rosenthal in the role for 2014, but the Cardinals also have Carlos Martinez as an option. It may come down to who the Cards prefer in the rotation versus in the pen. A deep sleeper might be Chris Carpetner if he re-signs with the Cards. If he can’t pitch starter’s innings anymore, maybe they’ll see what he can do out of the bullpen.

San Diego Padres
The Padres would love to deal Street. They’d give him up for a ham sandwich in my opinion. However, he’s  signed for $7M in 2014 and the remainder of 2013 as well. I’ll stick Street here because I don’t think they will be able to deal him.

San Francisco Giants
As long as Romo stays healthy (which is no guarantee), he’s the man for the Giants in 2014. And yes, Brian Wilson is still a free agent.

Seattle Mariners
Wilhelmsen has struggled at times this year. He’s not a youngster at 29, but he’s still under team control (arbitration-eligible in 2015) so the Mariners have some reason to keep trotting him out there. They have a couple of young guys in Carter Capps and Stephen Pryor who have shown flashes of outstanding skill, but lots of uneven performances as well.

Tampa Bay Rays
Rodney is a free agent. The Rays could go  a lot of different directions including re-signing Rodney, promoting Peralta (who is under contract through 2017 for just $2.5M per year) or moving on to a youngster like McGee. I think the Rays go the cheap route with McGee.

Texas Rangers
Soria could be an option here if Nathan decides to void his deal and look for a longer term deal elsewhere. I think the Rangers would prefer Nathan stay around. He’s been a rock in the bullpen for them since signing.

Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays have a $4M club option on Janssen and that’s a good price for a closer. If Santos comes back healthy, he’ll put some pressure on Janssen in spring training. Janssen should enter as the incumbent with all of the advantages that implies.

Washington Nationals
Soriano is signed through 2014 so he’s the man here unless there is an injury. And yes, Drew Storen is nowhere to be found. If there is someone in your league who think hes’ going to get back to closing, deal him to that guy. Storen is a mess and may only be a successful reliever if he’s dealt somewhere else.

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