2015 Daily Fantasy Football Strategy: Week 12 Tight Ends
It is on to Week 12 of the NFL and Daily Fantasy Football at DraftKings. I’m back to provide recommendations for Tight Ends for your weekly lineup. This week is the perfect week to take a dip into the Daily Fantasy pool as you can win $1,000,000! Daily Fantasy can help you with lineup decision for your season-long league and give you another team to root on during the weekend.
This is a great week to check out DraftKings and pick up a new way to play fantasy football.
DraftKings Tight End Recommendations
If you’ve never played on DraftKings before, you can get a deposit bonus by signing up. And there are different options to pick from at DraftKings for any skill level.
Finally, a gentle reminder on the scoring for Tight Ends – this is a PPR site so remember that when selecting players. The full for scoring for Tight Ends is at the end of this column.
Tight Ends can also be used in the flex position at DraftKings. However, with the entire world of RBs and WRs at your disposal Rob Gronkowski is probably the only TE you’d consider as a flex option. TEs still make a viable option at the flex spot as long as the pricing continues to be soft.
Let’s take a look at a couple of options at each price point. For those who are new to the column, I’ll generally look at a couple of options in each pricing tier broken out based on the socioeconomic status of 1970s sitcom families. And I’ll always cover Rob Gronkowski.
I’ll mention Football Outsiders a lot over the season – the passes per game and yards per game stats I use are from Football Outsiders. Here is the link to Football Outsiders’ 2013 stats. FO stats for 2014 are here and I like to use the defense versus types of receivers to fill out my rosters. And we now have 2015 stats located here.
Teams on bye: None – bye weeks are done for the year.
Thanksgiving Day Games
Let’s cover the Thursday games separately. There are three games on tap for Turkey Day and DraftKings has a full slate of contests for games on that day.
We have three games on Thursday:
Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions (over/under 46 points)
Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys (over/under 46.5 points)
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (over/under 47.5 points)
Greg Olsen | Panthers | $6,200 – Olsen’s matchup looks tough, but it’s made easier by the injury to Morris Claiborne. That means TE-killer Byron Jones will need to slide out of his normal role and into an outside CB role. And in last week’s game with Jones also filling in for Claiborne, Jordan Cameron put up two catches for 21 yards a TD. Not earth shattering, but Cameron isn’t Olsen.
Jason Witten | Cowboys | $5,100 – Well, that didn’t work out as we’d hoped. Romo’s return didn’t lead to a huge game for Witten. And this week, the matchup is tougher against the Panthers. There just doesn’t look to be a ton of upside here.
Martellus Bennett | Bears | $4,000 – Bennett injured his ribs in Sunday’s game and missed Monday’s practice. He returned to a limited practice on Tuesday, but his recent performance has been poor and with the injury and short week I’m not interested. If Bennett doesn’t play, Zach Miller ($2,900) becomes a nice punt play.
Eric Ebron | Lions | $3,300 – Dead to me.
Brent Celek| Eagles | $3,300 – Zach Ertz won’t play this week which immediately makes Celek an interesting play as his pricing assumed that Ertz would play. The Lions have given up a TD to a TE in four of their last five and five of their last seven games. Celek has put up 14 or more DK points in his last two weeks.
Richard Rodgers | Packers | $3,100 – Not a ton of upside in Mr. Rodgers’ neighborhood.
We’ve added a new feature this year highlighting the top totals (over/under) in Vegas for the week.
The top over/under totals for Week 12 (according to Vegas Insider consensus):
Nothing over 48 points in the Sunday games. Low scoring looks to continue.
New Orleans Saints at Houston Texans (47.5 points)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts (46.5 points)
San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (46.5 points)
New York Giants at Washington (46.5 points)
The Gronk Tier
Rob Gronkowski | Patriots | $7,900 – So, who is going to catch the ball from Tom Brady? Gronk is just about the only healthy receiver on the team. Gronk’s results have been all over the map in the last four weeks (over 25 points in two weeks, under nine points in two weeks) and the Broncos defense is good against TEs. The name makes you feel safe, the recent results don’t.
Tyler Eifert | Bengals | $5,800 – Eifert has had similar volatility of results over the past four weeks as Gronk has, but he’s $2,100 cheaper. And his matchup is much better. He’s been a tick better at home (scoring three more DK points per game). The Rams have given up three 100 yard games to TEs in their last five games including in each of the last two games.
Delanie Walker | Titans | $5,400 – Start your TE against Oakland. Always. Except if they are named Eric Ebron. The Raiders have actually been much better against TEs since their bye in week 6. Oddly, they’ve give up TDs in four of those six games since the bye and every single one was given up to the backup TE. So, from the season view, the play looks safe, but recently the Raiders have been pretty stingy. Walker offers a solid floor based on his usage in the offense, but he’s not an automatic play just because it’s the Raiders.
Jordan Reed | Washington | $5,100 – Great matchup. Sprained MCL. Track injury reports this week, but Washington has already made a TE move from their practice squad which doesn’t give me a lot of hope. He certainly won’t be heavily owned.
All in the Family
Gary Barnidge | Browns | $4,800 – Our man is back! He’s scored eighteen points or more in every week since Week 3 but one. He faces a tough matchup, except that he torched the Ravens for eight catches, 139 yards and a TD in Week 5. Baltimore comes in having given up six catches, 74 yards and a TD to the Rams’ combo of TEs last week. Start Barnidge in cash games with confidence.
Jimmy Graham | Seahawks | $4,800 – Nah. Far too volatile week to week to spend even $4,800 on him. This is a recording. Matchup looks tempting and maybe the ‘hawks figure out how to use him. So, if you are making a number of GPP lineups, feel free to throw him in one or two.
Antonio Gates | Chargers | $4,700 – What a dud last week from Gates. Is he healthy? No. Is he mad at Phillip Rivers? Probably not. He likely won’t be 100% for the rest of the season and Ladarius Green should be back this week. So, he’s got some mitigating factors going against him. The Jags have given up eight or more catches to TEs in each of the last two weeks (though two weeks ago it was four each to Crockett Gillmore and Maxx Williams). The Chargers are still banged up at WR so Gates will have his chances.
Travis Kelce | Chiefs | $4,700 – Week 1’s 30 point explosion is just a fading memory. Still. The Chiefs scored 33 points last week. Kelce had five catches for 46 yards. In fact, that seems to be his line for the last three weeks. There isn’t a ton of upside here in this offense.
Benjamin Watson | Saints | $4,000 – Coming back from bye Watson gets a tough matchup against the Texans. They were blitzed in Week 1 by Travis Kelce, but have been pretty solid ever since having given up only one TD since the Kelce outburst.
Crockett Gillmore | Ravens | $3,700 – It’s tough to know how Matt Schaub will perform under center, but Gillmore has double digit point totals in three of his last four weeks and had his first 100-yard game last week.
Charles Clay | Bills | $3,500 – Nope. Tough matchup and questions at QB.
Kyle Rudolph | Vikings | $3,400 – Rudolph crossed the 10 point threshold last week for the first time since Week 2. The performance came from out of nowhere. He picked up 106 yards last week after not crossing the 53 yard total all season. Put him back in storage even though he could see double digits again as the Falcons have given up TDs to TEs regularly. But, if you want to spend $3,400 on a TE, I suggest…
Julius Thomas | Jaguars | $3,400 – The Chargers streak of giving up TDs to TEs ended at three last week. He offers some solid upside as the Jags are a bit banged up at WR and it looks like he’s finally fully healthy.
Jacob Tamme | Falcons | $3,300 – As I noted last week, if Leonard Hankerson is back, Tamme goes back to being a ghost. And that’s how it played out. I’m off Tamme as long as Hank is in the lineup.
Heath Miller | Steelers | $3,100 – Miller plays the Seahawks who don’t know how to use a TE nor do they know how to defend one. There are a lot of mouths to feed in the Steelers’ offense so Miller can get lost. His matchup is good, but the ‘hawks are tough at home.
Vernon Davis | Broncos | $3,000 – Six catches for 68 yards is a nice line to see from Mr. Davis. And with Brock Osweiler starting again this week, things are looking up. The talent still seems to be there for VD and he’s getting more opportunities with Denver.
Sanford and Son
As we strive to give you more and more each week, we’ve added a new tier. The Sanford & Son tier. If you want to go dumpster diving hoping to find that gem, let Sanford & Son be your guide. You hear that Elizabeth? I’m coming to join ya!
Austin Seferian-Jenkins | Buccaneers | $2,500 – He’s SUPPOSED to be back this week. Though, we’ve heard that before. He faces the Colts who had struggled recently against TEs until last week. He’s a GPP-only option with some upside, but the Bucs offense looks like it might be fully healthy for almost the first time all year.
Derek Carrier | 49ers | $2,500 – He could be the starter for Washington if Jordan Reed sits.
Clive Walford | Raiders | $2,500 – Two catches and a TD is just about the best you can expect from Clive. The Titans have given up a TD to a TE in each of their last three games.
DraftKings Tight End Scoring
10 Receiving Yards = +1PT (+0.1PT per yard is awarded)
Reception = +1PT
Receiving TD = +6PTs
100+ Yard Receiving Game = +3PTs
Fumble Lost = -1PT
2 Point Conversion (Pass, Run, or Catch) = +2PTs
Offensive Fumble Recovery TD = +6PTs
The full DraftKings scoring system is here.