2015 Fantasy FootballChris GarosiFantasy Football Salary Cap Analysis

2015 Daily Fantasy Football Strategy: Week 14 Tight Ends

It is on to Week 14 of the NFL and Daily Fantasy Football at DraftKings. I’m back to provide recommendations for Tight Ends for your weekly lineup. This week is the perfect week to take a dip into the Daily Fantasy pool as you can win $1,000,000! Daily Fantasy can help you with lineup decision for your season-long league and give you another team to root on during the weekend.

This is a great week to check out DraftKings and pick up a new way to play fantasy football.

DraftKings Tight End Recommendations

If you’ve never played on DraftKings before, you can get a deposit bonus by signing up. And there are different options to pick from at DraftKings for any skill level.

Finally, a gentle reminder on the scoring for Tight Ends – this is a PPR site so remember that when selecting players. The full for scoring for Tight Ends is at the end of this column.

Tight Ends can also be used in the flex position at DraftKings. However, with the entire world of RBs and WRs at your disposal Rob Gronkowski is probably the only TE you’d consider as a flex option. TEs still make a viable option at the flex spot as long as the pricing continues to be soft.

Let’s take a look at a couple of options at each price point. For those who are new to the column, I’ll generally look at a couple of options in each pricing tier broken out based on the socioeconomic status of 1970s sitcom families. And I’ll always cover Rob Gronkowski.

I’ll mention Football Outsiders a lot over the season – the passes per game and yards per game stats I use are from Football Outsiders. Here is the link to Football Outsiders’ 2013 stats. FO stats for 2014 are here and I like to use the defense versus types of receivers to fill out my rosters. And we now have 2015 stats located here.

Teams on bye: None – bye weeks are done for the year.

Over/Under

We’ve added a new feature this year highlighting the top totals (over/under) in Vegas for the week.

The top over/under totals for Week 14 (according to Vegas Insider consensus):

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 50.5 points
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals – 49.5 points
Buffalo Bills at Philadelphia Eagles – 47 points

The Gronk Tier

Rob Gronkowski | Patriots | $7,700 – What’s this? Gronk is practicing…hmm…..I still feel like he’ll sit out again this week as he’s practicing in a limited fashion and has a big brace on his knee. But, he’s listed as questionable so who knows. The matchup with the Texans is OK, but Gronk is generally matchup-proof especially in a game where Tom Brady won’t have any WRs you’ve heard of.

The Jeffersons

Greg Olsen | Panthers | $6,900 – A big $700 jump for Olsen from last week to this week. He’s put up double digit points in six straight games as the most reliable receiver on the Panthers’ team. Atlanta is one of the poorer teams against the TE. When the Falcons face talented TEs, they give up catches in bunches. Olsen’s floor is seven catches and 50 yards. He’s only scored once in his last four games so perhaps he’s due!

Delanie Walker | Titans | $5,600 – Walker has averaged 7.3 catches and just over 97 yards over his last three weeks. He’s only scored once in those three weeks, but it’s clear that Marcus Mariota has found how valuable a sure-handed TE can be. The matchup against the Jets is one of the toughest, but they did give up three catches and 70 yards to Will Tye last week and were scorched by the only legitimate TE they’ve faced this year (Gronk) for 11 catches, 108 yards and a TD. He’s tough to recommend, but his usage is almost guaranteed.

Tyler Eifert | Bengals | $5,600 – Eifert missed last week with a neck injury, but looks like he’s good to go this week. His matchup looks great, but Eifert was shut down in Week 8 by these same Steelers for just four catches and 39 yards on eight targets. Eifert has scored six TDs in his last four, so he’s clearly the number one option in the red zone. He’ll probably be low-owned in the bigger tourneys coming off injury, but has excellent upside.

Jordan Reed | Washington | $5,100 – Reed did not look great last week against Dallas and one wonders if he’s completely healthy. The matchup looks tough because the Bears have only given up two TDs to TEs all year. It’s tough to trust Washington on the road and as a result, I’m off Reed this week.

Gary Barnidge | Browns | $5,000 – Barnidge keeps on chugging week after week no matter who is at QB. He gets Johnny Manziel this week (and probably for the rest of the season). The Niners are tough on TE, but Barnidge has been matchup proof all year. He’s a guaranteed 10 point scorer with upside in the high teens.

All in the Family

Travis Kelce | Chiefs | $4,700 – The Chiefs get the Chargers who can’t wait for Week 17 to come. They are cratering everywhere and this game has the look of a high scoring affair for the Chiefs. Kelce only had five catches for 46 yards in their earlier showdown three weeks ago. However, in that 33-3 blowout, Dontari Poe scored a rushing TD and Justin Houston returned a fumble for a TD. So, the scoring chances will be there against a team that’s given up TDs to TEs in five of the last seven weeks.

Antonio Gates | Chargers | $4,600 – Tough matchup and a faltering offense means Gates is going to be tough to roster this week. The Chiefs have given up more than 50 yards to a TE once this year and they have only given up three TDs to TEs. Gates is probably the best receiving option Phillip Rivers will have so the volume will probably be there.

Jason Witten | Cowboys | $4,500 – Romo’s still gone, right? Ok, then Witten is an afterthought.

Benjamin Watson | Saints | $4,400 – Watson picked up a TD last week, but didn’t do much else. The Saints are down another offensive weapon with Mark Ingram hitting injured reserve. Outside of weeks 7 and 8, the Bucs have been pretty solid against TEs and with the Saints on the road, I don’t see a reason to roster Watson.

Julius Thomas | Jaguars | $4,200 – Watson salvaged his week last week with a TD, but was disappointing otherwise. He faces the Colts who have given up three TDs to TEs in the last five games. The Colts have been pretty solid against the TE since the bye in Week 10. Allen Hurns also returns this week so JT may not be the best option this week.

Good Times

Richard Rodgers | Packers | $3,900 – Rodgers’ Hail Mary catch capped off his best day of the season. But, he had more usage leading up to that catch than he had this season. Aaron Rodgers said this week that they have to continue to use Rodgers. He’s not flashy and there isn’t a ton of upside, but he’s consistent and trustworthy.

Scott Chandler | Patriots | $3,800 – Chandler is also listed as questionable this week for the Pats, but it seems he’s closer to probable than Gronk. However, Gronk’s status clouds Chandler’s usefulness.

Charles Clay | Bills | $3,500 – Clay surprised me last week as he picked up 16.6 DK points on four catches, 66 yards and a TD. Well, he has another tough matchup against an Eagles team that’s been surprisingly good against TEs. The Eagles have given up TDs to TEs in two of the last three games so he could certainly see another TD, but that’s probably the best case scenario.

Jacob Tamme | Falcons | $3,400 – Tamme disappointed last week, but let’s not allow recency bias to cloud our judgment. Leonard Hankerson is still out and Julio Jones will have to get past Josh Norman (which no one has been able to do this season). So, Tamme seems like he’ll be the beneficiary of more targets. It didn’t work out last week, but that doesn’t mean we won’t see Tamme bounce back this week.

Crockett Gillmore | Ravens | $3,300 – Gillmore will likely miss this week and Maxx Williams ($2,500) gets the start. But, Jimmy Clausen is probably going to be throwing the ball for the Ravens against a tough Seahawks defense. No thanks.

Heath Miller | Steelers | $3,200 – Miller is back after a one week break due to a rib injury. The Steelers have too many other options on offense to truly trust Miller. Miller did crush the Bengals back in week 8 for 10 catches and 105 yards – the most catches and yards given up to a TE by the Bengals all year.

Martellus Bennett | Bears | $3,100 – On injured reserve and done for the year.

Sanford and Son

As we strive to give you more and more each week, we’ve added a new tier. The Sanford & Son tier. If you want to go dumpster diving hoping to find that gem, let Sanford & Son be your guide. You hear that Elizabeth? I’m coming to join ya!

Vance McDonald| 49ers | $2,800 – McDonald is attempting to come back from a concussion so watch the news. But, he was one of Blaine Gabbert’s bigger targets before going down and the Browns can be had by TEs.

Brent Celek| Eagles | $2,800 – Zach Ertz ($2,600) is still around so I’m not messing with the Eagles’ TEs.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins | Buccaneers | $2,700 – ASJ finally suited up last week and though he didn’t play a full complement of snaps, he should be on his way to full time this week. And what a nice week for it to happen as the Bucs face the Saints who are terrible against TEs. They’ve given up six TDs in their last five games. And in the only game in that run they didn’t give up a TD, Greg Olsen put up nine catches for 129 yards. I dig ASJ a lot this week – he’s my punt play of the week.

Vernon Davis | Broncos | $2,900 – Tread lightly as VD is coming off a concussion and the Raiders poor ranking against TEs is based on their struggles in the first five weeks of the season. Since then, they have been pretty solid with the only issue being TDs to backup TEs. If Davis sits, Owen Daniels ($2,800) could also be a punt option.

Will Tye | Giants | $2,800 – Plays on Monday night and could be an option to swap out for Chandler if he doesn’t play.

Clive Walford | Raiders | $2,500 – Walford could be an interesting option this week as the Broncos do give up TDs to TEs. It’s all about usage, but the Broncos secondary could shut down the WRs giving Walford some more looks.

DraftKings Tight End Scoring

10 Receiving Yards = +1PT (+0.1PT per yard is awarded)
Reception = +1PT
Receiving TD = +6PTs
100+ Yard Receiving Game = +3PTs
Fumble Lost = -1PT
2 Point Conversion (Pass, Run, or Catch) = +2PTs
Offensive Fumble Recovery TD = +6PTs

The full DraftKings scoring system is here.

 

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