2015 Daily Fantasy Football Strategy: Week 16 Tight Ends
It is on to Week 16 of the NFL and Daily Fantasy Football at DraftKings. I’m back to provide recommendations for Tight Ends for your weekly lineup. This week is the perfect week to take a dip into the Daily Fantasy pool as you can win $1,000,000! Daily Fantasy can help you with lineup decision for your season-long league and give you another team to root on during the weekend.
This is a great week to check out DraftKings and pick up a new way to play fantasy football.
DraftKings Tight End Recommendations
If you’ve never played on DraftKings before, you can get a deposit bonus by signing up. And there are different options to pick from at DraftKings for any skill level.
Finally, a gentle reminder on the scoring for Tight Ends – this is a PPR site so remember that when selecting players. The full for scoring for Tight Ends is at the end of this column.
Tight Ends can also be used in the flex position at DraftKings. However, with the entire world of RBs and WRs at your disposal Rob Gronkowski is probably the only TE you’d consider as a flex option. TEs still make a viable option at the flex spot as long as the pricing continues to be soft.
Let’s take a look at a couple of options at each price point. For those who are new to the column, I’ll generally look at a couple of options in each pricing tier broken out based on the socioeconomic status of 1970s sitcom families. And I’ll always cover Rob Gronkowski.
I’ll mention Football Outsiders a lot over the season – the passes per game and yards per game stats I use are from Football Outsiders. Here is the link to Football Outsiders’ 2013 stats. FO stats for 2014 are here and I like to use the defense versus types of receivers to fill out my rosters. And we now have 2015 stats located here.
Teams on bye: None – bye weeks are done for the year.
IMPORTANT: This week we also have a Saturday game (along with the Thursday night game) and DK has some Saturday games out as well – try them out!
We’ve added a new feature this year highlighting the top totals (over/under) in Vegas for the week.
The top over/under totals for Week 16 (according to Vegas Insider consensus):
Jacksonville Jaguars at New Orleans Saints – 52 points
Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals – 49.5 points
Washington at Philadelphia Phillies – 48 points
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens – 47.5 points
Mork and Mindy
We have renamed the Gronk Tier the Mork and Mindy Tier as it’s clear that Gronk is not of this world.
Rob Gronkowski | Patriots | $7,600 – Gronk put up 11 catches, 108 yards and a TD in the Week 7 matchup with the Jets. And we can expect another solid performance from him this week even if the matchup is tough on paper. But, they gave up seven catches and 71 yards to Delanie Walker two weeks ago. The problem in rostering Gronk is that there is a ton of other options below. Gronk is generally safe and without Julian Edelman and perhaps a hobbled Danny Amendola, Gronk is probably safer than usual.
Greg Olsen | Panthers | $7,000 – Olsen has hit the $7,000 mark which means he’s a candidate for Mork & Mindy status. The matchup is great, but just two weeks ago Olsen had only three catches for 52 yards. I wouldn’t put him on a roster this week. I’ll spend my money elsewhere as there are better values below.
Jordan Reed | Washington | $6,500 – Saturday night game – Another $600 jump for Reed this week and even though he’s the most important receiver on Washington, his matchup is just too tough to spend this kind of coin. Reed put up five catches and 37 yards against the Eagles back in Week 4.
Delanie Walker | Titans | $5,600 – At this point the matchup doesn’t really matter for Delanie. He’s the only steady receiver on the team. And even with Zach Mettenberger at QB, I’m not worried about Walker. Plug and play Walker again this week. I would pay up for Walker this week.
Benjamin Watson | Saints | $5,300 – Watson is questionable with a knee injury and Drew Brees is questionable with a torn plantar fascia. I can’t see rostering him this week even with a cherry matchup as I’d rather pay up for Delanie or drop down to….
Julius Thomas | Jaguars | $5,100 – Thomas’ matchup is the best of the week and he’s been on the rise over the last couple of weeks averaging nearly eight targets per game over the last five games and four TDs in those five weeks. If you need to save a few hundred bucks from Delanie Walker, put JT in your lineup.
All in the Family
Tyler Eifert | Bengals | $4,900 – He is still in the concussion protocol so he’s a long shot to play this week. Backup Tyler Kroft ($2,500) will likely get another start. His salary dropped $700 after picking up a TD last week which doesn’t make a ton of sense. Kroft is a solid punt option this week as it seems the Bengals will use the TE in the red zone no matter who is at the position.
Gary Barnidge | Browns | $4,700 – This might be the week that Barnidge breaks his streak of double digit DK points. The Chiefs are the stingiest defense against TEs, but they have given up five or more receptions to TEs in the last four weeks so he could be a GPP option as he’ll likely be low-owned.
Travis Kelce | Chiefs | $4,300 – Where is the upside with Kelce? I could see the game flow push this to a run-heavy attack for the Chiefs. He did put up double digit DK points last week, but he’s only had two of those in his last six weeks.
Zach Miller | Bears | $4,000 – With Alshon Jeffrey out, Miller becomes my favorite in this tier. While the Bucs have been OK versus the TEs, Jay Cutler is going to need to throw to someone and I could see Miller leading the Bears in targets this week.
Richard Rodgers | Packers | $4,000 – Rodgers caught eight passes in Week 13. He’s accumulated 10 YARDS! in his last two games. The matchup against the Cardinals looks solid, but Rodgers has falledn off the face of the Earth. I’d much rather have Zach Miller than Rodgers.
Jason Witten | Cowboys | $3,900 – Matt Cassell is no longer at QB so fire Witten up for this…wait? Who? Roger Moore? No…? Kellen Moore is at QB? Ok. Never mind. Pass again on Witten even with Dez Bryant likely out this week.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins | Buccaneers | $3,800 – ASJ hasn’t shown much in his three weeks since he’s returned from injury. He’s had three catches in each week and yardage totals of 31, 31 and 29. Now that’s consistency. Yes, he scored a TD last week, but you can’t count on TDs every week.
Will Tye | Giants | $3,500 – Like Zach Miller, Tye should see some additional targets and makes a great option this week as he’s become an integral part of the Giants’ offense. The Vikings haven’t given up a TD to a TE since Week 10 and haven’t given up more than 12 DK points to a TE since Week 7. But, Tye should be a big part of the aerial attack.
Heath Miller | Steelers | $3,400 – In the earlier matchup, Miller had one catch for one yard. I don’t see him falling on his face like that again this week, but I don’t see him being worth the $3,400 as the Steelers will throw to Brown, Bryant and Wheaton this week.
Kyle Rudolph | Vikings| $3,300 – Rudolph’s matchup is fantastic as the Giants have been one of the friendliest defenses to TEs. The problem is that Rudolph’s usage can’t be counted on.
Jacob Tamme | Falcons | $3,200 – Much like Rudolph, we can’t trust Tamme’s usage. And his matchup is worse. Pass.
Zach Ertz| Eagles | $3,100 – Saturday night game. Ertz’s DK points totals the last three weeks – 8.9, 14.8, and 21.8. So, that’s a nice trend. It seems as though he’s finally eclipsed Brent Celek. The matchup is tough, but Washington offers a high floor for Ertz as they’ve given up ten or more DK points in three of their last five games.
Vernon Davis | Broncos | $3,000 – Davis is tough to trust after last week’s egg laying. The Broncos’ offensive line is in shambles and the QB has been spotty. No thanks.
Charles Clay | Bills | $3,000 – Out again this week.
Maxx Williams | Ravens | $3,000 – With Crockett Gillmore out and Ryan Mallett possibly starting at QB, Williams is a no go.
Sanford and Son
As we strive to give you more and more each week, we’ve added a new tier. The Sanford & Son tier. If you want to go dumpster diving hoping to find that gem, let Sanford & Son be your guide. You hear that Elizabeth? I’m coming to join ya!
Eric Ebron | Lions | $2,900 – If Brandon Pettigrew is out (as he is for the rest of the year), Ebron is an option. And at less than $3,000, Ebron has nice upside at that price point. The Niners have given up TDs to TEs in back to back games. And with Megatron having retired (or something similar), Ebron should see some red zone looks.
Blake Bell| 49ers | $2,500 – Is the Vance McDonald ($2,500) era over already? Perhaps and Blake Bell may be the next up. Bell should get more opportunities as the 49ers play out the string. I’d certainly rather own him than McDonald this week.
Nick O’Leary | Bills | $2,500 – So, O’Leary will get some run with Charles Clay out as Rex Ryan said that O’Leary will have “a much greater role” this week. If he picks up three catches, 30 yards and a TD, he’s made your day.
So, this weeek if you want to go chalk, take Delanie Walker or Julius Thomas. If you need so save a few more bucks, drop down to Zach Miller or Will Tye. If you want to punt, then roster Zach Ertz or Eric Ebron.
DraftKings Tight End Scoring
10 Receiving Yards = +1PT (+0.1PT per yard is awarded)
Reception = +1PT
Receiving TD = +6PTs
100+ Yard Receiving Game = +3PTs
Fumble Lost = -1PT
2 Point Conversion (Pass, Run, or Catch) = +2PTs
Offensive Fumble Recovery TD = +6PTs
The full DraftKings scoring system is here.