Daily Fantasy Golf Strategy: RBC Heritage
The Masters is done, but the golf isn’t as we head to Harbour Town Golf Links for the RBC Heritage.
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Harbour Town Golf Links is a 7,099 yard, par 71, Pete Dye course. It’s one of the most challenging courses on Tour and is nearly universally loved by the pros. It is a tight course that tests players’ accuracy everywhere and weather is usually a factor.
The course always reminds me of the groundbreaking computer game Links 386 Pro (as Harbour Town was the course of choice on the game). Perhaps I’m showing my age. Let’s move on…
The weather looks like it will be part of the story all week. We’ll have wind on Thursday, wind and rain on Friday and more wind on Saturday. As always, continue to check up until lineup lock on Thursday as we could see a delay on Friday.
Scorecard breakdown: Four (4) par threes, ten (11) par fours and three (3) par fives. So, we only have three par fives which is not too surprising on a tight course like this. We want to see who can scorch the par fours this week.
It’s the week after a major and the field is weak….relatively. We have Jason Day
The full field can be found here.
Past Tournament Results
The RBC Heritage has been contested at Harbour Town since 1969.
So, here is the top 20 for the last three years:
Let’s take a look at the statistical angles in for this week’s tournament. This is a different type of course than we’ve seen recently. No more grip it and rip it.
Driving Accuracy – The accurate drivers will carry the day this week as they have in years’ past. The trouble on the course is difficult to navigate.
Par 4 Scoring – We have 11 par 4s on the course, so there will be opportunities to score on par 4s this week.
Scrambling – Excellent scramblers can succeed here so if we see a golfer who is less than accurate off the tee, we’d like to marry that with excellent scrambling.
Greens in Regulation (GIR) – It’s not the best stat to target, but we’ll take a quick gander at it as we have tiny greens to hit this week.
And each week, we’ll look at Strokes Gained: Putting (SG:P) and Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (SG:T2G) with SG:T2G being more important this week.
DraftKings Expert Picks
Jason Day | $12,500 – The best player in the field by a mile, Day disappointed some last week with his T10 at the Masters. He’s played the RBC four times in the last eight years with three weekends and a T9 in 2011. He’s currently 162nd in driving accuracy and that’s the knock on the Aussie this week. The price seems far too low in a field that lacks any real star power.
Paul Casey | $10,800 – Casey is in excellent form coming in with three top 10 finishes in his last four events. He also has at the RBC Heritage and has two top 20 finishes including a T18 two years ago. The profile fits the course (63rd in driving accuracy, 21st in SG:T2G, 92nd in scrambling and 33rd in par 4 scoring. It seems like a great week is in store for Casey.
Brandt Snedeker | $10,600 – Sneds hasn’t been accurate off the tee this year (120th in 2016), but the rest of his game works for this course. He won here in 2011 and backed that up with a T17 the following year. He has back to back top 10s on Tour.
Matt Kuchar | $10,300 – Kuchar is likely the safest play which means he’ll miss the cut for the first time in his last 12 trips. In 2016 he’s 42nd in driving accuracy, 47th in SG:T2G, 75th in scrambling and 97th in par 4 scoring. Kuch has made 11 straight cuts at the RBC with a WIN and T5 in the last two years.
Zach Johnson | $10,000 – Johnson’s history here is good, but his recent work is less so. Since 2012, he’s finished T48, T61 and MC. That’s not a great trend. His profile works here and had back to back top 10s before missing the cut last week at the Masters.
Kevin Kisner | $9,700 – Kisner is a poor scrambler (155th this year), but that may have more to do with his lack of opportunities (seventh in accuracy this year) than his skill set. Kisner’s form has been off lately after a hot start to the year (four of six cuts made with only one top 25 finish).
Matthew Fitzpatrick | $9,500 – The young Englishman showed up at the Masters with a T7. He’s accurate off the tee (tenth last year on the European Tour) and finished last year seventh in GIR% on the European Tour. If you don’t mind paying up, Fitz seems to have a the skills to build on his T23 debut here two years ago.
Justin Thomas | $9,300 – Thomas is 155th in driving accuracy and 137th in scrambling which says I probably won’t have him in many of my lineups even if he was T11 last year.
Bill Haas | $9,100 – Hass profile looks as good as his course history is bad. In 2016, he’s 25th in driving accuracy, 38th in SG:T2G, 23rd scrambling, and 64th in par 4 scoring. The American played Harbour Town 11 times and has only made the cut in five of those trips. He does have two top 10s in his last three Tour starts.
Branden Grace | $9,000 – Like Justin Thomas, Grace’s profile doesn’t really work here. Yet, Grace also performed well last year in his debut (T7).
Billy Horschel | $8,900 – BillyHo is three for three in cuts made at the RBC with one top 10 (2013). He’s made eight cuts in a row on Tour with four top 20 finishes in that streak. Horschel’s profile has some good (64th in par 4 scoring, 30th in SG:T2G) and some bad (199th in scrambling and 102nd in driving accuracy).
Kevin Na | $8,700 – Na is seven for 10 in cuts made at Harbour Town with three top 10s. Na has one of the best profiles in the field this week (51st in driving accuracy, 15th in SG:T2G, 39th in scrambling and fifth in par 4 scoring).
Jason Dufner | $8,600 – Dufner is 60th in driving accuracy, 29th in SG:T2G, 145th in scrambling, and 33rd in par 4 scoring.
Graeme McDowell | $8,500 – G-Mac is a former winner at the RBC (2013) and has two top 30 finishes since then. He’s missed five cuts in nine starts in 2016, but his profile is a solid fit (ninth in driving accuracy, 78th in SG:T2G, 45th in scrambling, and 112th in par 4 scoring).
Charley Hoffman | $8,400 – Hoff has had some success here with back to back top 10 finishes in 2012 and 2013, but not much else in the past here for him. However, he’s been playing well with eight straight cuts made and two top 20s. He sits 195th in driving accuracy so you have to hope on current form carrying the day.
Luke Donald | $8,300 – Course history is thy name. Five top 10s in 10 starts here and eight cuts made overall. All of his top five finishes have occurred in the last seven years. However, he hasn’t been terribly good this year with a top finish of T22 at the Valspar. Outside of horrific driving accuracy (179th), the rest of the profile is good (57th in SG:T2G), tenth in scrambling and 21st in par 4 scoring.
Danny Lee | $8,300 – Lee has played here twice with a top finish of T60 last year. His profile (26th in driving accuracy, 49th in SG:T2G, 52nd in scrambling and 79th in par 4 scoring) looks like it should lead to success at Harbour Town.
Graham DeLaet | $8,200 – His profile isn’t great (though he is fourth in par 4 scoring) and he hasn’t had any success in his four starts at the RBC. He’s in solid form with four cuts made in a row and two top 20s. I rarely trust DeLaet and I don’t see a reason to do so this week.
Russell Knox | $8,200 – Knox has finished in the top 20 in his first two trips to the RBC Heritage over the last two years. He hasn’t shown any form this year as he does not have a top 25 finish. Knox is currently 22nd in driving accuracy, 72nd in SG:T2G, 31st in scrambling and 33rd in par 4 scoring which looks like a profile I want to back.
Charles Howell III | $8,100 – This is the part of the schedule where we part ways with Mr. Howell III. We’ll see you in California next year.
Russell Henley | $8,100 – Henley debuted here in 2013 with a T6 and then missed the cut the next two years. He shattered his run of five missed cuts with a T5 at the SHO in his last tournament. The profile looks solid as he’s 40th in driving accuracy, 130th in SG:T2G, 82nd in scrambling and 21st in par 4 scoring.
Marc Leishman | $8,000 – Leishman has one of the best statistical profiles for Harbour Town. And luckily, we are at Harbour Town this week! He’s made three of six cuts at RBC with one top ten (T9 in 2013).
Bryson DeChambeau | $8,000 – DeChambeau turns pro this week on a run of three straight top 30 finishes on Tour with a T21 at the Masters last week. He’s done the majority of his scoring on par 4s this year and his putter has been hot.
Ian Poulter | $7,900 – Poulter is five for five in cuts made here with one top 20 finish (his T18 last year). He’s made five cuts in row on Tour though only one finish in the top 40. The Englishman’s profile looks like it could work (46th in driving accuracy, 151st in SG:T2G, 57th in scrambling and 202nd in par 4 scoring).
Webb Simpson | $7,900 – Simpson should be a safe play as he is five for six in cuts made at the RBC Heritage and has three top 20s. Beyond his solid course history, as he performed well at the Masters (T29) and has three top 20s in six Tour starts this year. Simpson’s profile works for the course and we should see him meet value this week.
Jamie Lovemark | $7,800 – That driving accuracy (178th) concerns me as he makes his debut here. The rest of the profile works, but his issues off the tee could preclude him from taking advantage of his other skills.
Harris English | $7,800 – English’s history here looks a lot like Russell Henley’s as he debuted with a T8, the missed the cut and finished T31. He made the cut last week at the Masters and finished T42. The profile isn’t great and there isn’t much to recommend him.
Ryan Palmer | $7,700 – Less than stellar driving accuracy (129th) and scrambling (132nd) has me off Palmer initially. Then we look at his course history and we see he’s made only two of six cuts here. Finally, we’ll look at his current form and he hasn’t missed a cut in 2016 with just two top 20s in eight starts. Nah.
Tony Finau | $7,700 – Justin Thomas Lite.
Chris Kirk | $7,700 – Kirk hasn’t finished in the top 25 in any of his five trips to Harbour Town. He’s an excellent scrambler (44th), but nothing else in his profile works. Even though he missed the cut last week at the Masters, he looked great at the Match Play (T5) and had made two cuts in a row prior to that.
Chez Reavie | $7,600 – Reavie’s shaky putter always makes me nervous, but I’m going to jump in with both feet this week as the rest of his profile works. (15th in Driving Accuracy, 22nd in SG:T2G, third in scrambling and 21st in par 4 scoring). He finished T7 in his last start on Tour and has two top 10s in his last four events though he’s missed four of six cuts at Harbour Town.
Kevin Chappell | $7,600 – Chappell’s profile is a fit for Harbour Town (29th driving accuracy, 110th in SG:T2G, 33rd in scrambling, and 44th in par 4 scoring). However, his results say something else as he’s made one of three cuts with a T29. He’s made four of seven cuts on the year – I’ll probably look elsewhere in this salary range.
Francesco Molinari | $7,500 – Molinari finished last year at first in driving accuracy. This year, we’ve seen the Italian crater to 95th in accuracy off the tee. He hadn’t shown much this year until his T9 at the SHO two weeks ago. He’s played here once in 2011 and missed the cut.
Scott Brown | $7,500 – Brown has three top 10 finishes in his last five Tour events. His profile is middling, but he has made the cut in each of his three starts at the RBC Heritage including a T5 two years ago. I’m going to ride that current form this week.
Patton Kizzire | $7,500 – Kizzire is another risky option as he’s 199th in driving accuracy. However, he could make up for all of that if he continues his putting ways (eighth in SG:P). He makes his debut here this week and has made seven of nine cuts on Tour.
K.J. Choi | $7,400 – This is a course that I imagined Choi would have had past success at. However, in five starts he’s made the cut three times with one top 20 (2013). The South Korean’s form has also been off after a hot start to 2016. The profile works so he could be a sneaky play in cash games.
Jason Kokrak | $7,400 – Kokrak has back to back top 20 finishes at the RBC somehow even if he’s not accurate off the tee (152nd). He has three top 25 finishes and four missed cuts in nine PGA Tour starts this year.
Kyle Reifers | $7,300 – Reifers has made four cuts in a row including a T7 at the SHO in his last start. His scrambling is poor (198th this year), but the rest of his profile works as he makes his debut here.
Brendan Steele | $7,300 – Steele missed his first cut of 2016 at the SHO in his last Tour event. He’s finished T21 in 2011 in his debut. He’s 105th in driving accuracy and 150th in scrambling, but he’s 33rd in SG:T2G and 21st in par 4 scoring so if he stays out trouble he should be able to score.
Sean O’Hair | $7,200 – I really dig O’Hair this week as he is fifth in par 4 scoring and eighth in scrambling this year. He won here in 2011 and followed that up with a T17. He hasn’t finished in the top 25 in his last three visits to Harbour Town, but ended the Masters at T10 and was T9 at the Match Play.
Boo Weekley | $7,200 – He won here twice, but that was during the Kennedy administration. His recent results at the RBC are poor and his current form is worse.
Ben Martin | $7,200 – Martin looks like an excellent value this week. He’s three for three in cuts made at the RBC with a T3 two years ago. His profile does fit (101st in driving accuracy, 88th in SG:T2G, 176th in scrambling and 79 th in par 4 scoring), but his current form is solid and he’s had success here before.
Will MacKenzie | $7,100 – MacKenzie comes in off back to back top 20s and has made five cuts in a row on Tour. He’s made five of six cuts at the RBC though hasn’t had a finish inside the top 30 and missed the cut in his last time (2014). The American is 70th in driving accuracy, 103rd in SG:T2G, 185th in scrambling and 79th in par scoring.
William McGirt | $7,100 – After struggling in his first three starts at Harbour Town, McGirt finished T9 and T31 in his last two trips. And it’s the recent work here that makes him an attractive GPP option.
His 2014 performance gives an indication of his upside as he had two rounds of 66.
David Lingmerth | $7,100 – Lingmerth is accurate off the tee (23rd this year), but the rest of his profile (85th in SG:T2G, 119th in scrambling and 97th) is average at best. He’s played here just once (2013 – MC) and comes in playng poorly (made four of his last seven cuts with no finish in the top 40).
Matt Jones | $7,000 – Has poor form, a poor profile and poor course history.
Luke List | $7,000 – Horribly inaccurate off the tee. Pass.
Colt Knost | $7,000 – Knost has one of the better profiles for this event as he’s second in driving accuracy, 136th in SG:T2G, 13th in scrambling and 64th in par 4 scoring. His history here has run the gamut from a solo third to a T62 to a missed cut in three starts. He’s made eight of nine cuts on the year.
Jason Bohn | $6,900 – Happy to see him return so quickly from his heart attack.
Chris Stroud | $6,900 – Finished T6 in 2013, but has nothing else here to talk about.
Roberto Castro | $6,900 – The profile works (19th in driving accuracy, 24th in SG:T2G, 64th in scrambling and 12 in par 4 scoring) even though he’s missed the cut in his two trips to Harbour Town.
Jerry Kelly | $6,800 – Kelly is currently fourth in driving accuracy, second in scrambling, 99th in SG:T2G and 112th in par 4 scoring. And he has had some success at the RBC Heritage with two top 20s in his last three RBC starts. He’s a solid cash game option.
Brian Harman | $6,800 – 44th in par 4 scoring, 80th in driving accuracy and perhaps most importantly he’s ninth in SG:P. He’s made four straight cuts here and had a T9 two years ago.
Lucas Glover | $6,700 – Bad putter, but a great profile otherwise. He’s finished T18 last year and I like him as a sneaky player with low ownership. Glover has made only seven of 13 cuts overall at the RBC.
Camilo Villegas | $6,700 – It’s about course history for Villegas this week. He’s made seven of ten cuts with three top 10 finishes including a T9 in 2013. The profile doesn’t fit and his current form is off.
Morgan Hoffmann | $6,700 – Hoffmann is from the area and has played the golf course multiple times outside of competition. He finished T9 last year after missing the cut in 2013. The home cooking better be good however as he’s missed four straight cuts on Tour.
Stewart Cink | $6,600 – Has made 14 of 16 cuts here, but the price is a bit high for a guy who’s value is in making cuts.
Mark Hubbard | $6,600 – Hubbard’s profile looks like it could produce a solid debut this week. He comes in off back to back top 20 Tour finishes. I’d feel comfortable with Hubbard in cash games this week.
Justin Leonard | $6,400 – It’s old man value time! Leonard has one of the better profiles for Harbour Town as he’s fifth in driving accuracy, 100th in SG:T2G, 49th in scrambling and 79th in par 4 scoring. He has top 20 finishes in his last two PGA Tour events. However, the veteran has missed the cut in four of his last five trips to the RBC.
David Toms | $6,400 – More old man value as Toms has one of the best profiles for the course (13th in driving accuracy, 46th in SG:T2G, first in scrambling and 12th in par 4 scoring). But, it’s never worked for him here and I’m not sure it’s going to start this year.
Sung Kang | $6,300 – Hey, Kang still has Fluff as his caddie and Fluff helped Jim Furyk to the win here last year. Could he go two for two? Kang is 64th in par 4 scoring and 36th in scrambling in 2016 so he has some tools to dream on.
Si Woo Kim | $6,300 – Kim debuts here this week with a profile set to work (56th in driving accuracy, 79th in SG:T2G, 29th in scrambling and 64th in par 4 scoring). Kim started 2016 off hot with back to back top 10s and then stumbled through most of the rest of the season. However, he bounced back with a T13 at the SHO two weeks ago.
Jason Gore | $6,200 – Gore is accurate (69th) and can score on par 4s (44th). He’s missed only one cut in six Tour starts along with a withdrawal. He’s had no success at the RBC Heritage.
Rory Sabbatini | $6,200 – Sabbatini’s profile doesn’t work, but he’s finished in the top 20 in five of his last six starts at Harbour Town.
Spencer Levin | $6,200 – His recent form is poor, but the profile is good and did have three straight top 20 finishes here from 2011 to 2013.
David Hearn | $6,000 – The Canadian has made back to back cuts on Tour and has a solid profile (32nd in driving accuracy, 91st in SG:T2G, 104th in scrambling and 79th in par 4 scoring). Hearn’s best finish in five starts at the Heritage was his debut T46 in 2011.
Brendon de Jonge | $6,000 – All of the course history. None of the current form.
Zac Blair | $5,800 – Blair debuted with a T44 here last year and is 12th in driving accuracy and 24 th in scrambling. That’s an interesting mix at this low a price.
Ryan Ruffels | $5,800 – Aussie amateur with all of the upside in the world though he’s not yet shown it on Tour.
Chad Campbell | $5,700 – Campbell is 59th in driving accuracy, 32nd in SG:T2G, 61st in scrambling and 97th in par 4 scoring. He’s seven for 11 in cuts made at Harbour Town with three top 25 finishes.
Carl Pettersson | $5,700 – Cheap. Former winner.
Justin Hicks | $5,600 – In searching the depths, we like to see some success at the course (two for three cuts made with a T18) and something that works in his profile (28th in driving accuracy).
Brian Gay | $5,500 – Won here in 2009 by 10 strokes setting the 72 hole course record! Has only one other top 10 in 15 trips.
Good luck this week! Head over to DraftKings to choose your squad for this week.
Roster size: 6 Golfers
Golfers on each team will accumulate points as follows:
- Per Hole Scoring
- Double Eagle (DBL EAG): +20 PTs
- Eagle (EAG): +8 PTs
- Birdie (BIR): +3 PTs
- Par (PAR): +0.5 PTs
- Bogey (BOG): -0.5 PTs
- Double Bogey (DBL BOG): -1 PT
- Worse than Double Bogey (WORSE DBL BOG): -1 PT
- Tournament Finish Scoring
- 1st: 30 PTs
- 2nd: 20 PTs
- 3rd: 18 PTs
- 4th: 16 PTs
- 5th: 14 PTs
- 6th: 12 PTs
- 7th: 10 PTs
- 8th: 9 PTs
- 9th: 8 PTs
- 10th: 7 PTs
- 11th–15th: 6 PTs
- 16th–20th: 5 PTs
- 21st–25th: 4 PTs
- 26th–30th: 3 PTs
- 31st–40th: 2 PTs
- 41st-50th: 1 PTs
- Streaks and Bonuses
- Streak of 3 Birdies of Better (MAX 1 Per Round) (3+ BIR STRK): +3 PTs
- Bogey Free Round (BOG FREE RD): +3 PTs
- All 4 Rounds Under 70 Strokes (ALL 4 RDS UND 70): +5 PTs
- Hole in One (HOLE IN ONE): +10 PTs
Scoring Notes: Ties for a finishing position will not reduce or average down points. For example, if 2 golfers tie for 3rd place, each will receive the 18 fantasy points for the 3rd place finish result. Playoff Holes will not count towards final scoring, with the exception of the “finishing position” scoring. For example, the golfer who wins the tournament will receive the sole award of 1st place points, but will not accrue points for their scoring result in the individual playoff holes.
Player Lock Notes: All golfers lock at the time the first golfer tees off on day 1 of an event.
Full rules are located here for DraftKings Daily Fantasy golf.