2015 Fantasy GolfChris Garosi

Daily Fantasy Golf Strategy: Travelers Championship

Another week of PGA Daily Fantasy picks for DraftKings and what a week it was at Chambers Bay last week. I’m not sure if we’ll see another Open there for a while given the complaints from the players, but it sure was pretty. This week, it’s the Travelers Championship. I’m back again to provide daily fantasy golf picks for DraftKings’ PGA game.

It’s a great week to check out DraftKings as they have some top notch contests. Come on over and take a look.

Tour Stop

The Travelers Championship is held at TPC River Highlands in Cromwell, CT. River Highlands is a 6,854 yard, par 70 course – much shorter than most on tour. The course was built in 1928 and has undergone a series of name changes since then finally settling on the current name in 1989. The tournament has been played at this venue since 1984 so historical records all the way back to 1989 (the date of the last redesign) should be relevant.

The weather looks like it will be good with little chance of wind or rain. As always, keep checking in during the week as wind can crop up at any time at this course.

Scorecard breakdown: Four (4) par threes, ten (10) par fours and two (2) par fives. It’s another par 70 course, but it’s almost 1,000 yards shorter than Chambers Bay.

Field

It’s not a major, so we won’t have a field like we did at the U.S. Open. We have three of the top 10 in the OWGR teeing it up. We could see some withdrawals from those players who played the weekend at Chambers Bay.

The full field can be found here.

Thanks to GolfOdds.com for the odds this week. If you’d like to see a second set of odds, check out the Betting Zone’s odds here – just click on this week’s tournament on the left hand pane.

Past Tournament Results

2014 Winner: Kevin Streelman crushed the course and the field with a Sunday round of 64. It was Streelman’s first PGA Tour win. In fact, the last five winners (including Streelman) made the win here their first PGA Tour win ever.

Streelman finished 48th in driving distance, T17 in driving accuracy, third in SG: Putting, T10 in GIR, eighth in proximity to the hole and T58 in scrambling.

The 2013 winner (in a playoff over Chris Stroud) Ken Duke was 57th in driving distance, T10 in driving accuracy, 10th in SG: Putting, T62 in GIR, T14 in proximity to the hole and third in scrambling.

Don’t be fooled by the great SG: Putting numbers above as Streelman finished 2014 at 102nd in SG: Putting and Duke finished T108 in 2013 in SG: Putting. This course can make middling putters look fantastic.

Top 20 - Last three Travelers Championships
Top 20 – Last three Travelers Championships

Statistical Review

Thank goodness we are at a course that someone has played more than once. We have tons of data that shows us…well, what does it show us? Long hitters can do well, but so can shorter ones. You need to be accurate anyway you look at it as there is rough to be found not too far off course.

Driving Distance –The course can be overpowered to some degree (though you have to stay on course) so we’ll also look at…

GIR – Getting to these simple putting surfaces in a timely fashion will allow high scores.

Ball Striking – A wonderful short cut stat that adds Total Driving (the combo of Driving Distance and Driving Accuracy) with GIR. All three stats should be important this week.

Par 4 scoring – It’s a par 70 course, so we need to focus on par 4s as there will be more chances on par 4s.

Birdie Percentage < 125 yards – I used this stat last year to identify the eventual winner Kevin Streelman. No need to deviate this year as I’ll use this as a tiebreaker – many of the opportunities will be from this distance and in.

Pete Dye – Also relevant this week is that the initial redesign on the course in 1982 was performed by Pete Dye. So, we’ll want to look at players who are successful on the other Pete Dye courses on tour. Those four courses in regular rotation on Tour are:

TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS)
Harbour Town (RBC Heritage)
TPC River Highlands (Travelers – this week’s tournament)
TPC Louisiana (Zurich Classic)

Also, Whistling Straits (2004 and 2010 PGA Championship venue) is a Dye-designed course.

Don’t worry about putting much this week – these greens are flat and relatively simple to read and putt which brings below average putters into the pack.

As always, you should examine Strokes Gained: Putting and Strokes Gained: Tee to Green every week.

DraftKings Expert Picks

Bubba Watson | $11,800 – The highest priced player on the board also is the odds on favorite to win a tournament he won in 2010. He’s made seven of eight cuts with four top 10 finishes. He missed the cut at the U.S. Open, but there isn’t much applicable from last week to this week. His statistical profile doesn’t fit, but he’s a guy who’s succeeded here year after year as well a T2 finish at Whistling Straits in 2010.

Patrick Reed | $11,300 – I’m off Reed this week as he just doesn’t seem to fit the course at all. He’s made two of three cuts with a top 20 here in 2013 and he’s made five straight cuts on Tour including his T14 last week at the U.S. Open. However, he’s only 119th in GIR and a 156th in ball striking. He does well on par 4s, but there is more value elsewhere. He’s another overpriced player this week.

Brandt Snedeker | $10,900 – Snedeker is 11th in par 4 scoring (and fourth in birdie or better % < 125 yards) so he pops up onto my radar immediately. He’s made three of four cuts here including his best finish last year a T11. He’s done well at the RBC (six of eight cuts including a win), though he hasn’t done well at the PLAYERS (only three of eight cuts made). His white hot currently has he’s had three straight top 10 finishes on Tour including a solo eighth last week at the U.S. Open.

Sergio Garcia | $10,400 – Sergio is one of the finest ball strikers on Tour (26th this year) and put up a T2 last year as he’s made the cut all three times he’s played here. He’s 18th in par 4 scoring (though 110th in birdie or better < 125 yards). He’s missed only one cut in his last 10 tournaments and is in off a T18 at the U.S. Open.

Billy Horschel | $10,100 – Sure, he hated the greens last week, but that shouldn’t be an issue this week. He’s only played here twice (making one cut), but his current form is fantastic with four straight made cuts and his worst finish in those four the T25 last week at the U.S. Open. Horschel is a player you have to ride when he’s hot and he’s hot right now. He’s 40 th in par 4 scoring, 15 in GIR, and eighth in ball striking.

And now, a brief interlude…I’m not sure I’d take anyone in the $9,000 to $10,000 range because I think there is value to be had elsewhere. There are many viable options in this range, but I might be happier to look a bit further down the list.

Louis Oosthuizen | $9,900 – So, I was wrong about Oosty as it looks like he’s nice and healthy based on his work at the U.S. Open. He’s 26th in par 4 scoring (though 159th in birdie or better % < 125 yards), 31st in GIR and 38th in ball striking so his profile fits. He’s withdrawn once and finished T47 once in his two trips to the Travelers so we don’t have much history to read. He was T7 at the RBC earlier this year so if he’s healthy, he’s an option this week.

Keegan Bradley | $9,800 – Bradley is four for four in cuts made at the Travelers with one top 20 finish. He’s made three straight cuts on Tour including a respectable T27 at the U.S Open last week. He’s 83rd in par 4 scoring (64th in birdie or better < 125 yards), 61st in GIR and 20th in ball striking. He’s a viable option this week on a course where he’s had some success.

Marc Leishman | $9,700 – Leishman has had a lot of success here with a win in 2012 backed up by a T11 in 2013 and T30 in 2014. His profile doesn’t fit extremely well (though he’s 83 rd in par 4 scoring). He’s made three of his last five cuts on Tour though missed out last week at the U.S Open.

Kevin Streelman | $9,600 – Streelman is six of seven in cuts made at the Travelers and won last year after missing the cut in 2013. He’s 11th in par 4 scoring (though a poor 153rd in birdie or better % < 125 yards), 17th in GIR and 13th in ball striking so he’s made to succeed at the TPC River Highlands course. He comes in playing pretty well with eight cuts in nine tour stops. He’s also had some success at the RBC (five straight cuts made) so he can tackle Dye courses.

Tony Finau | $9,600 – If you haven’t heard of Finau by now, where have you been? He’s made five straight cuts and been in the top 20 each of those five times. He’s never teed it up here and missed the cuts at the RBC and Zurich this year (in his only trips there). He is 40th in par 4 scoring, 56th in GIR and 64th in ball striking so he has some of the skills to make it work here.

Kevin Na | $9,500 – Na is like Tony Finau in that he’s been playing out of his mind recently. He’s made 10 straight cuts at stroke play events and had his streak of eight straight top 10s ended last week at the U.S. Open. He’s played at the Travelers infrequently and hasn’t had any recent success. Na is 26th par 4 scoring, 106th in GIR and 150th in ball striking so he could succeed, but you’re banking more on form to get him through this week.

Branden Grace | $9,500 – Grace’s success at Chambers Bay was not totally unexpected (by me at least). The South African debuts here and looks to build on his excellent current form and his T7 at the RBC in his debut there.

Harris English | $9,400 – English is 40th in par scoring (though a disconcerting 193rd in birdie or better < 125 yard), 38th in GIR and 21st in ball striking. He’s made all three cuts at the Travelers including a T7 last year. He’s got a top 10 finish in his three trips to the RBC. He’s made three straight cuts on Tour, though he only has one top 10 in that stretch.

Zach Johnson | $9,100 – Johnson does well at Pete Dye courses in general so he has to be considered this week. He’s actually struggled here the last three years with a missed cut and no finish better than T58. He posted a T72 at the U.S. Open, but had been hot prior to Chambers Bay reeling off three straight top 20s including a solo fifth at the Byron Nelson. He’s 40th in par 4 scoring (23rd from 125 yards and in), 55th in GIR and 53rd in ball striking so his profile fits the course.

Paul Casey | $9,000 – Casey is 40th in par 4 scoring, 11th in GIR and ninth in ball striking so he’s set up well in his debut at the Travelers. He’s played four times at the RBC and Zurich and his worst finish is T22 though he has limited success at the PLAYERS. His form is down a bit, but he’s not that far removed from his solo ninth at the SHO and T6 at the Masters.

Brendan Steele | $8,800 – Steele has made three of four cuts here all in the last four years and has finished in the top 15 in each of those three weekends. He’s been up and down recently as he’s made two of his last four cuts. Steele is 11th in par 4 scoring (though 158th in birdie or better < 125 yards), 33rd in GIR, and 23 in ball striking so he should be a premium player this week at a lower price point.

Hunter Mahan | $8,700 – What to do with Mahan? He used to wax Dye-designed courses, but that prowess has wanted recently. He’s made nine of 13 cuts at the Travelers though he missed out last year. From 2006 to 2009 his worst finish was T4 in those four years. He’s made three of his last five cuts though his top finish is a T39. He’s 11th in par 4 scoring, 70th in GIR and 48th in ball striking so he can succeed here. I think I’ll pass this week as I just can’t trust his recent form on similar courses.

Francesco Molinari | $8,700 – All signs point to Molinari having a fantastic run this week. He’s sixth in par 4 scoring (and first at birdie or better 5 < 125 yards), fourth in GIR and 22nd in Ball Striking. He’s never played here before, but he’s coming in with seven straight made cuts worldwide including three top five finishes.

Graham DeLaet | $8,500 – DeLaet is here on reputation alone though some might see a ray of hope in his recent “run” of four made cuts and back to back to 30 finishes. He did finish solo third here two years ago and has made the cut four of five times, though his next best finish was T51 last year. There is more value here and lower down the list.

Luke Donald | $8,400 – Donald makes his first appearance though there isn’t much to recommend him this week. He’s made four straight cuts worldwide, but he’s’ in off his worst finish of the year with a T58 at the U.S. Open. However, he’s done quite well at Dye courses (8 of 10 at the RBC with five top five (!) finishes) and nine of 13 at the PLAYERS with three top 10 finishes.

Russell Knox | $8,400 – Knox is fifth in par 4 scoring (though a distant 112th in birdies or better < 125 yards), ninth in GIR and 17th in ball striking. He’s made two of three cuts at the Travelers including a T13 two years ago. He’s playing extremely well lately with seven cuts made in a row and 10 off 11 including a T18 at the RBC, T43 at the Zurich and T17 at the PLAYERS.

Nick Watney | $8,200 – I never get Watney right so I’ll probably miss again. He does well on par 4s (61st), 92nd in GIR and 85th in ball striking so he can succeed here. He’s four of six here and has two top 10 finishes and picked up a T11 last year. He’s made three straight cuts (with one top 10) after missing three straight cuts. I think he does relatively well this week – he’s certainly roster-able based on his skill profile. That means he’ll probably bomb out with back to back 80s.

Jason Bohn | $8,100 – Bohn is always up for consideration on shorter courses and this week is no different. Bohn is sixth in par 4 scoring (34th in birdie or better < 125 yards), 26th in GIR and 51st in Ball Striking so he’s got the perfect profile for success this week. Oddly, he’s missed his last three cuts here, after making his first five. His only top ten was a T6 in his first trip. He’s made four cuts in a row on Tour including two top 10 finishes.

Will Wilcox | $8,000 – There aren’t many golfers whose profile fits this course better than Wilcox. He’s 18th in par 4 scoring, 12th in GIR and sixth in ball striking. He missed the cut last year in his only trip to the Travelers and has made his last two cuts on the PGA Tour with back to back top 25 finishes. He also calls a Pete Dye (The Dye Preserve in Florida) his home course so he’s familiar with Dye’s mind games.

Justin Thomas | $7,900 – Las Vegas like Thomas a bit more than DraftKings does as he’s five spots higher in the odds than his salary implies. He finished T30 in his only trip to TPC Highlands. He profiles similarly to Brendon Todd so he’s got that upside (without the longer track record here) at a lower price point.

Brendon de Jonge | $7,800 – de Jonge stripes par 4s (26th), stands 41st in GIR and is 35th in ball striking so his profile works. He’s made five of seven cuts at the Travelers with two top 10 finishes. He’s also done well at the RBC (including a T18 this year) so he has top 20 upside this week.

Morgan Hoffmann | $7,700 – Hoffmann doesn’t profile well here, but that didn’t stop him from putting up a T9 two years ago. And he was T9 at the RBC this year and is a perfect three for three at the Zurich Classic.

Sean O’Hair | $7,400 – O’Hair is a par 4 master sitting sixth in par 4 scoring and 18th in birdie or better < 125 yards. However, he’s only 127th in GIR and 95th in ball striking so he could have some accuracy issues. He’s two of five at Travelers with a top finish of T63 so he’s a deep sleeper this week for those who want to rely on par 4 scoring work to build a roster. Remember he’s been playing better this year than he has in years and put up a solo sixth at the RBC and T12 at Zurich so he’s shown some success at Pete Dye courses.

Peter Uihlein | $7,400 – Uihlein is an exciting, young American player who is plying his trade in Europe, but comes over on a sponsor’s exemption. Sounds a lot like Brooks Koepka, eh? Well, not so much. He’s not quite had the success Kopeka has and his recent form in Europe is not great has he’s had two finishes at 60th or worst and a missed cut over his last four tournaments. He’s also nine spots higher in salary on DraftKings than his odds say he should be.

Brendon Todd | $7,300 – Todd is nine spots lower in salary than Vegas thinks he should be. Todd sits 61st in par 4 scoring, but 22nd in birdie or better < 125 yards, 86th in GIR and 94th in Ball Striking. He’s missed the cut both times he’s teed it up here in Connecticut. He’s alternated made and missed cuts over his last four, but his profile fits.

Gary Woodland | $7,300 – Woodland (like Brendon Todd) is nine spots lower in salary than Vegas thinks he should be. Woodland has made the cut once in two trips. He’s 73rd in ball striking and 75th in GIR, but struggles on par 4s. He’s missed his last two cuts on tour so this is all about the value versus his odds to win.

Chris Stroud | $7,100 – Stroud is a horse for this course as he’s six for seven in cuts made (the only miss was a withdrawal) with a top 10 finish in his history. He’s had three top 20 finishes in his last four trips to the Travelers. He’s also performed relatively well on Pete Dye courses in his career. He’s not in the best form missing three of his last four cuts so no one will likely be looking at him.

William McGirt | $6,900 – McGirt missed the first two cuts here, but has put up a T30 and T31 in his last two trips. He’s made three of six cuts on Tour with no finish better than T28. He’s 61st in par 4 scoring with an even better 21st spot in birdie or better < 125 yards. He also fits pretty well off the tee as he’s 84th in ball striking and 66th in GIR.

Brian Harman | $6,800 – Harman is 16 spots lower in salary than he should be if the Vegas oddsmakers set the DraftKings’ salaries. He’s made all four cuts in the four times he’s teed it up in Hartford though he hasn’t finished in the top 25 in any of those four trips. He’s a pure odds play this week as his profile doesn’t seem to fit and his form has been up and down as of late with four of seven cuts made missing his last two.

Stuart Appleby | $6,700 – Appleby is seven for 10 at the Travelers with one top 10 finish. He’s finished in the top 20 each of the last three years here. He’s been out since mid-February with a disc issue for which he underwent a surgical procedure. He’s a high risk option this week based on his limited track record this year. Withdrew on Wednesday.

Vijay Singh | $6,600 – Old man value play of the week in Singh as he’s never missed a cut in 11 trips to the Travelers Championship. He has two top 10 finishes (back to back in 2006 and 2007) with his more recent finishes coming in the 30s and 40s. He’ll probably make the cut, he probably won’t threaten the leaderboard, but there is still value to be had.

Cameron Smith | $6,500 – My man Cameron. He had a bit of a coming out party last week at the U.S. Open. He’s made four of five cuts in the States this year. He currently sits fifth in the PGA Tour of Australasia Order of Merit and was fifth in the Order of Merit on the Asian Tour in 2014. He’s a young stud who if he played in the States would be just a rung belong the likes of Jordan Spieth in terms of hype. He’s not and the salary at DraftKings hasn’t caught up as he sits 42 spots lower in salary than his odds to win imply. He’s also 26th in par 4 scoring (fifth in birdie or better < 125 yards), 90th in GIR though a lowly 135th in total driving.

Martin Laird | $6,500 – Laird’s statistical profile works here as he’s 40 th in par 4 scoring, 39 th in GIR, and 32nd in ball striking. He made his only cut in three shots here in 2011. He’s made 13 of 17 cuts on Tour this year, but hasn’t had a top 40 or better finish since mid-March at the Valspar.

Angel Cabrera | $6,500 – Cabrera has only played here three times (the last three years) and has back to back top 15 finishes. He withdrew from the Byron Nelson a few weeks ago with a back injury so there is some concern there especially after the T64 at the U.S. Open. But, he made his way around Chambers Bay so he’s healthy enough.

Scott Langley | $6,400 – Langley’s home course is The Dye Preserve in South Florida so he knows his way around Dye-designed courses. He was T11 last year after missing the cut in his first trip. He’s alternated cuts made and missed over his last nine tour stops. He’s 155th in par 4 scoring, but he’s 38th in birdie or better < 125 yards so I like him as a sneaky play this week.

Colt Knost | $6,200 – Knost comes in 44 spots lower in salary on DraftKings than his odds imply he should be. And he has a profile to work this week as he’s 40th in par 4 scoring (31st in birdie or better < 125 yards), 40th in GIR and 59th in ball striking. He’s two for four in cuts made at the Travelers. However, his form is excellent have made three of his last four cuts with all three made cuts ending in T12 or better. All three of these cuts were also on par 70 courses.

Hudson Swafford | $6,200 – Swafford’s profile fits again this week as he’s 12th in ball striking, 31st in GIR and 61st in par 4 scoring. He’s made three cuts in a row and five of six including cuts made at the RBC and Zurich Classic. He was T24 here last year in his first trip. He makes a solid punt play in GPPs.

Will MacKenzie | $6,100 – Five for five in cuts made at the Travelers. His home course is a Pete Dye design. He’s 61st in par 4 scoring. So, I’m saying there’s a chance.

Stewart Cink | $5,900 – Cink is one of the most successful players on Dye-designed courses, but that success is deep in the rearview mirror. He won here in 2008, but since then his best finish is a T47 in three trips. He’s 40th in par 4 scoring (15th birdie or better from 125 yards and in), third in GIR and 70th in ball striking so his profile fits quite well. He’s on his best run of the year with three straight cuts made and five of six including his best finish of the year a T20 at the Wells Fargo.

Troy Merritt | $5,900 – Merritt seemingly came out of nowhere to finish solo third at the RBC this year. The profile that worked there can work here at the Travelers even if his game has cratered since.

DraftKings Scoring

Roster size: 6 Golfers

POINT SCORING

Golfers on each team will accumulate points as follows:

  • Per Hole Scoring
    • Double Eagle (DBL EAG): +20 PTs
    • Eagle (EAG): +8 PTs
    • Birdie (BIR): +3 PTs
    • Par (PAR): +0.5 PTs
    • Bogey (BOG): -0.5 PTs
    • Double Bogey (DBL BOG): -1 PT
    • Worse than Double Bogey (WORSE DBL BOG): -1 PT
  • Tournament Finish Scoring
    • 1st: 30 PTs
    • 2nd: 20 PTs
    • 3rd: 18 PTs
    • 4th: 16 PTs
    • 5th: 14 PTs
    • 6th: 12 PTs
    • 7th: 10 PTs
    • 8th: 9 PTs
    • 9th: 8 PTs
    • 10th: 7 PTs
    • 11th–15th: 6 PTs
    • 16th–20th: 5 PTs
    • 21st–25th: 4 PTs
    • 26th–30th: 3 PTs
    • 31st–40th: 2 PTs
    • 41st-50th: 1 PTs
  • Streaks and Bonuses
    • Streak of 3 Birdies of Better (MAX 1 Per Round) (3+ BIR STRK): +3 PTs
    • Bogey Free Round (BOG FREE RD): +3 PTs
    • All 4 Rounds Under 70 Strokes (ALL 4 RDS UND 70): +5 PTs
    • Hole in One (HOLE IN ONE): +10 PTs

Scoring Notes: Ties for a finishing position will not reduce or average down points. For example, if 2 golfers tie for 3rd place, each will receive the 18 fantasy points for the 3rd place finish result. Playoff Holes will not count towards final scoring, with the exception of the “finishing position” scoring. For example, the golfer who wins the tournament will receive the sole award of 1st place points, but will not accrue points for their scoring result in the individual playoff holes.

Player Lock Notes: All golfers lock at the time the first golfer tees off on day 1 of an event.

Full rules are located here for DraftKings golf.

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