2015 Fantasy GolfChris Garosi

Daily Fantasy Golf Strategy: WGC-HSBC Champions

We are back for Week 4 and our picks for Daily Fantasy Golf at DraftKings for the World Golf Champions (WGC)-HSBC Champions tournament outside of Shanghai in China. Let’s get down to business and make some money.

It’s a great week to check out DraftKings as they have some top notch contests for the final week. Come on over and take a look.

IMPORTANT NOTE: This tournament locks at 6pm on Wednesday night (Eastern) so get those lineups in early.

Tour Stop

We stroll on over to China this week for the World Golf Champions-HSBC Champions tournament in Shanghai. The tourney is played at the Sheshan International Golf Club in Shenzen, Guangdong, China outside of Shanghai on the West Course. The West Course is a par-72, 7,266-yard track and was designed by Nelson & Haworth (the original designers of the course for last week’s tour event in Malaysia). The West Course has hosted the tourney in 10 of the first 11 years of the tournament – all except 2012.

The weather looks like we could see some rain here and there, but wind shouldn’t be too much of an issue. Check back Wednesday to see how the weather evolves as there may be a tee time advantage to be had. There will almost certainly be delays.

Scorecard breakdown: We have a par-72 this week so we have four (4) par threes, ten (10) par fours and four (4) par fives.

Field

This is a limited field event with just 77 golfers teeing it up.

The full field can be found here.

Thanks to GolfOdds.com for the odds this week. If you’d like to see a second set of odds, check out the Betting Zone’s odds here – just click on this week’s tournament on the left hand pane.

Past Tournament Results

The West Course has hosted every year but 2012, so we have solid history to go on and we’ll ignore results from 2012.

WBC_HSBC_Top20_Last_2

Statistical Review

There was a big change in scoring last year as the winner (Bubba Watson) ended at 11-under. The four events at Shenshan had winners at 17-under or better. That big change was lengthening the rough which penalized the less accurate drivers. So, this week I’ll focus on:

Total Driving – With that change last year, we want to have players who are accurate and drive the ball a long way. Total Driving encompasses both of those aspects of the game.

Par 5: Birdie or Better (P5BB) – Prior to last year, par s5 coring was the way to pick up a victory. It was still important last year, but we saw an increased reliance on…

Par 4: Birdie or Better (P4:BB) – So we’ll also check here.

Greens in Regulation (GIR) – GIR seems to have been useful in the past at the CIMB, though not nearly as useful as last week.

I also always examine Strokes Gained: Putting (SG:P) and Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (SG:T2G) every week.

DraftKings Expert Picks

Rory McIlroy | $12,300 – It’s still tough to build lineups with the top salaried players this week, but I think McIlroy deserves attention. He’s never finished worse than sixth in four trips to the HSBC. He’s playing well coming off a T6 at the Turkish Airlines Open paired with a T26 at the Frys.

Jordan Spieth | $12,000 – Spieth has been off since the TOUR Championship, so I’m a bit worried about rust. And looking at his work here (17th and T35), I’ll go elsewhere this week. He’ll be in a couple of GPP lineups because you can’t totally fade him.

Bubba Watson | $10,500 – Watson won last year and finished T8 the year before. His 33rd place finish was at the Mission Hills course so it doesn’t matter this week. Watson finished 44th in Total Driving, second in P5:BB and eighth in P4:BB last season so he’s got a great chance to put up another top 10.

Dustin Johnson | $10,300 – DJ won this tournament in his only appearance at this course. He’s a long driver and can score (fifth in P5:BB and fourth in P4:BB) so he’s definitely under consideration this week.

Rickie Fowler | $10,300 – Fowler has a good profile (22nd in total driving, 15th in P5:BB and 81st in P4:BB) for the tournament. He finished third here last year, but 55th and 25th in his other two trips. He’s another premium player to consider.

Henrik Stenson | $10,100 – He has a meniscus injury that will require surgery. I just can’t see risking any money on him this week.

Adam Scott | $9,900 – Scott has certainly proved me wrong so far this year. Scott’s profile (15th in total driving, 21st in P5:BB and 22nd in P5:BB) works for a player who should challenge for the win this week. He’s ventured to the HSBC four times and has finished sixth, 25th, 11th and 12th (last year).

Hideki Matsuyama | $9,800 – Matsuyama profiles well (12th in Total Driving, 37th in P5:BB and third in P4:BB). However, he struggled in his last time at the HSBC finishing T41. He’s started off well with a fifth at the CIMB last week after a T17 at the Frys. His struggles last year put me off him a bit.

Kevin Na | $9,500 – Na is en fuego! His worst finish in his last five starts is T16. He finished T20 in his debut last year at the HSBC. There isn’t a hotter player right now. Ride the wave.

Justin Thomas | $9,400 – My man! Thomas has a win and a T3 in his first two tourneys of the new season. He profiles nicely (41st in total driving, first in P5:BB and 25th in P4:BB). He makes his debut at the HSBC this week, but look for him to contend.

Shane Lowry | $9,300 – I’m going to go underweight on Lowry. I really like him generally, but I think too many players will be on him. He’s had back to back top 10 finishes entering the HSBC, but hasn’t finished better than 28th in two attempts here.

Paul Casey | $9,200 – Casey profiles pretty well as he finished last season in eighth in total driving, 26th in P5:BB and 19th in P4:BB last year. He started the new season last week at the CIMB and finished T24. He had back to back top 10s in 2010 and 2011 at the HSBC and a 20th place finish in 2013. I like him a lot this week.

Sergio Garcia | $9,100 – Garcia won here in 2008 and also finished fourth two years ago. He also has three finishes outside the top 20 at the HSBC. He’s safe with a bit of upside – a cash game play for me.

Martin Kaymer | $9,100 – Kaymer’s won here in 2011 and finished in the top ten four other times since 2009. His form is poor (56th and T50 in his last two tournaments). His course history means he has to be in some lineups, but his current form says we should hedge a bit.

Branden Grace | $9,000 – Grace is a great driver of the ball (21st on the European Tour) and scores well (third in scoring average). His record here is short and not great – T39 in his only start. He put up a T17 at the CIMB last week, but we expect even better this week.

Patrick Reed | $8,900 – Reed finished T10 at the CIMB last week after his T3 at the Hong Kong Open. He’s fully acclimated to the region and is on fire. He finished 162nd in total driving (though 69th in distance) and 33rd in P5:BB and 55th in P4:BB. He’s a premium player below the premium neighborhood as he looks to build on his 22nd place finish in his debut last year.

Louis Oosthuizen | $8,800 – If you want to play Oosty, this is the week to do it because he’s probably healthy. He hasn’t played since withdrawing at the Tour Championship in last September. He’s finished in the top 15 three straight times at the HSBC and has five top 20s overall. He’ll be low-owned and he’s always a risk to withdraw, but the upside is great.

Ian Poulter | $8,600 – Poulter has back to back top 10 finishes and six top 20 finishes in nine starts at the HSBC. He even won this tournament (though it was at the Mission Hills course). The rest of Poulter doesn’t really matter – he’s money here every year.

Emiliano Grillo | $8,400 – So, Grillo won the Web.com Tour Championship. And then he won the Frys. And then he missed a cut. He’s taken a couple of weeks off so he should be well-rested and ready to attack Grillo’s form at the end of the year. He’s solid tee to green, but I’ll probably pass as I think he may be highly-owned in this space based on recent form.

Anirban Lahiri | $8,300 – Lahiri debuted here last year with a solid 28th place finish. And he comes in off a T21 at the CIMB and a T7 at the Hong Kong Open. He’s played well for nearly a year and is a good choice in cash games this week.

Matthew Fitzpatrick | $8,200 – Fitzpatrick won and placed third in his last three tourneys. And that form along with a reasonable profile makes him another good option this week that few DFSers know. He’s a 21-year old on the rise in Europe so ride the gravy train this week.

Lee Westwood | $8,100 – Westwood had a run of three straight top 10 finishes from 2007 to 2010. He’s got five top 20 finishes overall though his last two trips have ended with a 55th place finish and 20th (last year). He was 11th last week at the Turkish Airlines Open and was T17 at the British Masters a couple of weeks prior. Westwood’s profile works as he finished 32nd in total driving, 136th in P5:BB and 10th in P4:BB.

Scott Piercy | $8,100 – Piercy finished seventh last week at the CIMB and was 21st in his only trip to the HSBC. His profile works (69th in total driving, 81st in P5:BB and 36th in P4:BB). He’s a very nice option a just below the average golfer cost. He could be a staple in my cash games.

Charl Schwartzel | $8,100 – Schwartzel is a GPP option this week based on his volatility of results (both here and in general). He has three top 20 finishes at the HSBC, but was 64th last year. He was T6 at the Frys and then T50 at the Turkish Airlines last week. He finished 24th in total driving and 17th in P5:BB last year so he has some of the tools we’d like to see.

Chris Wood | $8,100 – Wood is the European Tour’s Kevin Na. He’s finished T4, T9, second and fifth (last week) over his last five tourneys. There may not be a hotter golfer on the planet and his odds reflect that condition.

Bernd Wiesberger | $8,000 – Wiesberger has always shown well in “lighter” fields. And this a field full of heavies. I really like him and his game and I think he’ll break out at some point. But, I’m not sure it’s this week and at this price point, he’s only a GPP option for a real contrarian play.

Danny Willett | $8,000 – Willett makes his debut at the HSBC this year and comes in with a T11 last week at the Turkish Airlines Open. He currently sits seventh in stroke average and fith in scrambling so he could surprise this week.

Kiradech Aphibarnrat | $7,900 – Current form (back to back top five finishes) versus tournament form (best finish is 55th in three trips). I think his form overtakes his history.

Byeong-Hun An | $7,800 – An is 18th in driving distance on the European Tour and makes his debut in off a fourth place finish at the Turkish Airlines Open. He’s probably too expensive for most lineups, but he could be quite the sleeper this week. His parents won ping pong medals in the 1988 Olympics.

Danny Lee | $7,700 – Withdrew last week with a finger injury. Not worth the risk in a no-cut event.

Andy Sullivan | $7,600 – Sullivan won three weeks at the Portugal Masters, but falter to a T60 last week at the Turkish Airlines Open. He makes his debut here this week and it’s not clear which Andy will show himself.

Thomas Pieters | $7,500 – Pieters is 14th in driving distance on the European Tour so he’s got a good chance to do damage. He finished T6 at the Portugal Masters and followed that up with a Turkish Airlines Open last week. He had back to back wins in late August and early September so we know he can find the leaderboard in his debut here.

Daniel Summerhays | $7,300 – Summerhays hasn’t played at the HSBC, but he’s coming in playing well. His last three starts have ended with T32, T15 and T14 (last week at the CIMB). His profile doesn’t work except….his 23rd spot in P4:BB. If he can tread water on the par 5s, he’ll have a big advantage on the par 4s.

Soren Kjeldsen | $7,200 – In his last ten starts, he’s made the cut eight times and finished in the top 12 seven times. That’s quite good. His last time at this event saw him finish tenth (in 2009). I like him quite a bit this week.

Harris English | $7,200 – English’s 44th place finish in P5:BB makes him an option this week. He got acclimated to the new time zone with a T43 at the CIMB. He makes his debut this week at the HSBC, but he’s had some success at other WGC events. A sneaky play surrounded by some other names that will attract players.

Daniel Berger | $7,200 – Call me crazy, but I trust Berger more than most in the field this week. He finished last season at 18th in total driving, eighth in par 5 scoring and 79th in par 4 scoring. So, the profile works and even if he’s debuting here this week, he’ll be in a lot of my lineups this week.

Thongchai Jaidee | $7,100 – Jaidee won five weeks ago at the Porsche and backed that win up with 13th and 26th place finishes. He’s played here six times with two top 20 finishes, but his last three trips have seen him place 29th, 26th and 41st. Can current form overcome his recent poor history?

Hunter Mahan | $7,100 – Mahan did finish seventh here in 2011 and has two other top 30 finishes. He’s got an average profile – he finished 87th in total driving, 110th in P5:BB and 50 th in P4:BB. I’m not sure I’ll have him many places.

Marc Leishman | $7,100 – Leishman’s profile isn’t the best, but it’s certainly worthwhile this week – driving distance (55th) and scoring (80th in P5:BB and 67th in P4:BB). He placed ninth here last year so it worked last year.

Tommy Fleetwood | $7,100 – Fleetwood has back to back top 25 finishes at the HSBC and that’s enough to make him a solid consideration this week.

Thorbjorn Olesen | $7,100 – Olesen made his debut at Sheshan last year and finished T6. He was also T11 in 2012 at Mission Hills. His success last year was based on his work on the par 4s which he played at 7-under so I wonder if there is something in the changes that make the par 4s another way to the leaderboard.

Robert Streb | $7,100 – And if par 4 scoring is the way to the leaderboard, Streb is your man. He finished last year at 53rd in total driving, 66th in P5:BB and 28th in P4:BB. He isn’t in the best form, so he’ll likely be under owned.

Billy Horschel | $7,000 – Withdrew with a back injury.

Russell Knox | $7,000 – Knox hasn’t teed it up here, but he brings with him a solid profile. He finished last season at 58th in total driving, 134th in P5:BB, but 48th in P4:BB. So, if par 4 scoring has become a bit more important this week, Knox makes an interesting choice.

David Lingmerth | $7,000 – Lingmerth finished 30th in total driving, 91st in P5:BB and 71st in P4:BB. He leans more to the accuracy side of total driving and his scoring isn’t great so let’s not go crazy this week.

Matt Jones | $6,900 – Jones is a long hitter (46th in driving distance) who scorches par 5s (18th in par 5 scoring) and is respectable on par 4s (63rd in par 4 scoring). His first and only appearance at the HSBC was his 53 rd place finish last year. He missed the cut at the Frys to open the season, but did put up a T37 last week at the CIMB. He’s a nick play down here.

Chris Kirk | $6,900 – Kirk made his debut at the HSBC last year with an excellent T14. And his par 5 scoring (48th last year) gives me even more hope for him. He’s one of the better bets down here below $7,000.

Gary Woodland | $6,900 – Woodland’s form is in the toilet. Flush away.

Scott Hend | $6,800 – Hend finished 21st here two years ago and is 16th in driving distance on the European Tour. He finished 27th last week at the CIMB and should be in all of your stars and scrubs lineups. He’s even a cash game option.

David Howell | $6,700 – Won here in 2005. Which is nice.

Hiroshi Iwata | $6,700 – Iwata finished T3 here last year in his debut. So, that’s something. He played the Frys and the Shriners to open this season and disappointed. I guess the hope is he plays like he did last year, but his form says tread lightly.

Steven Bowditch | $6,600 – Woof. That form. Missed cut, 80th, 71st….I don’t care how good his profile looks (and it’s solid), the current form is frightening.

Trevor Fisher, Jr. | $6,500 – Put up a T3 at the Portugal Masters in mid-October, but has struggled recently otherwise.

Wen-Chong Liang | $6,400 – Liang is a regular at Sheshan – he’s played every year and did finish 15th two years ago. He doesn’t have a top 20 finish in any of his other trips to the tourney. He’s a high-risk flyer as he’s’ only made four cuts in nine starts this season.

Haotong Li | $6,400 – Finished 35th and 39th the last two years and put up a 26th place finish last week.

Greg Chalmers | $6,300 – If you want to trust a par 4 scoring machine (48th last year), Chalmers is your man. He has nothing else going for him, but he could be worth a flyer.

S.S.P. Chowrasia | $6,300 – The “S.S. Chipp-putt-sia” has sailed.

Richard T. Lee | $6,300 – Burned me last week. No thanks.

Richard Lee | $6,200 – Is in the player pool, but is not actually in the tournament.

DraftKings Scoring

Roster size: 6 Golfers

POINT SCORING

Golfers on each team will accumulate points as follows:

  • Per Hole Scoring
    • Double Eagle (DBL EAG): +20 PTs
    • Eagle (EAG): +8 PTs
    • Birdie (BIR): +3 PTs
    • Par (PAR): +0.5 PTs
    • Bogey (BOG): -0.5 PTs
    • Double Bogey (DBL BOG): -1 PT
    • Worse than Double Bogey (WORSE DBL BOG): -1 PT
  • Tournament Finish Scoring
    • 1st: 30 PTs
    • 2nd: 20 PTs
    • 3rd: 18 PTs
    • 4th: 16 PTs
    • 5th: 14 PTs
    • 6th: 12 PTs
    • 7th: 10 PTs
    • 8th: 9 PTs
    • 9th: 8 PTs
    • 10th: 7 PTs
    • 11th–15th: 6 PTs
    • 16th–20th: 5 PTs
    • 21st–25th: 4 PTs
    • 26th–30th: 3 PTs
    • 31st–40th: 2 PTs
    • 41st-50th: 1 PTs
  • Streaks and Bonuses
    • Streak of 3 Birdies of Better (MAX 1 Per Round) (3+ BIR STRK): +3 PTs
    • Bogey Free Round (BOG FREE RD): +3 PTs
    • All 4 Rounds Under 70 Strokes (ALL 4 RDS UND 70): +5 PTs
    • Hole in One (HOLE IN ONE): +10 PTs

Scoring Notes: Ties for a finishing position will not reduce or average down points. For example, if 2 golfers tie for 3rd place, each will receive the 18 fantasy points for the 3rd place finish result. Playoff Holes will not count towards final scoring, with the exception of the “finishing position” scoring. For example, the golfer who wins the tournament will receive the sole award of 1st place points, but will not accrue points for their scoring result in the individual playoff holes.

Player Lock Notes: All golfers lock at the time the first golfer tees off on day 1 of an event.

Full rules are located here for DraftKings Daily Fantasy golf.

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