2013 Fantasy Baseball: ADP Climbers and Crashers, Late-Round Pitching Edition
For this purpose of this exercise, the average draft position trends reflect movement over the past two weeks, and are taken from our friends at MockDraftCentral.com. Our ADP data is courtesy of FantasyPros.com.
Jason Hammel | SP | BAL | ADP: 253 | +13%
Hammel left Colorado in 2012 with a pair of black eyes and the urge for a fresh start. He landed in Baltimore and finished 8-6 with a 3.43 ERA (3.29 WHIP) to go along with a career best 22.9% K% in his first season. His velocity was up a tick, he missed bats at a career high clip (9.9 SwStr%) and induced more ground balls than ever before (53.2% GB%). The final outcome may appear misleading as it was impacted by a knee injury that surfaced in May, but even so, each of the previous numbers point to an improvement away from Coors Field. As long as he’s healthy, Hammel is an interesting late-round pitching target.
Cory Luebke | SP | SD | ADP: 248 | +20%
The Padres are hopeful Luebke will return from Tommy John surgery sometime around June. And if your league provides enough bench depth or a DL slot, Luebke would be a perfect candidate to slip into one of those spots. Prior to the elbow injury last season, the southpaw went 3-1 with a 2.60 ERA (1.16 WHIP) and 2.88 K/BB. I know, the strikeout-to-walk rate should be better, but there’s a real possibility that the dip in swings-and-misses (6.6% SwStr%) were a result of the elbow injury. If Luebke returns to his career 3.36 K/BB range, owners could be in for a mid-season treat — especially for a guy who will be playing half of his games at Petco Park.
A.J. Griffin | SP | OAK | ADP: 239 | +22%
The young right-hander went 7-1 with a 3.06 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 15 starts last season. And yes, it’s just Spring Training, but A.J. Griffin is off to a fine start to camp this year as well. He’s dished five innings in two starts, tallying five whiffs while not surrendering a walk. This is all encouraging, but hardly guarantees him a spot in the Athletics’ starting rotation. Griffin has 14-team and deeper leagues written all over him, if he takes to the hill every five days.
Chris Perez | RP | CLE | ADP: 165 | -3%
Perez suffered a strained subscapularis muscle in his right shoulder during his second appearance of the Spring and will be shut down for seven-to-ten days before restarting a throwing program. He is expected to miss two-to-three weeks with hopes of being ready for Opening Day. Fantasy analysts will never “wish” for a player to suffer an injury, but for some time, they have been saying that an unfortunate case like this could open up the door for Vinnie Pestano.
Kyle Lohse | SP | FA | ADP: 211 | -3%
Another day has passed and the best hurler on the free agent market remains teamless. Are teams really afraid to ink the righty to a three-year deal? Or is it just that teams aren’t willing to part with the draft pick compensation that comes with signing the former Cardinal? Either way, his ADP is falling because of this and he’s becoming an increased risk for those in “Only” leagues on draft day.
Casey Janssen | RP | TOR | ADP: 211 | -6%
Janssen had surgery in the offseason to repair “lingering joint soreness” in his right shoulder. The Blue Jays’ brass have already come out and said that despite this, Janssen will be their closer when he’s ready for action. But the question that remains is: when will that be?