Fantasy Baseball

2013 Fantasy Baseball: Daily Fix May 11th 2013

Daily Fantasy Baseball Fix

Today I will be playing the Daily Dollar (great for beginners!): Don’t forget to claim your Deposit Bonus!

Before I get into my @DraftKings team of the day, here are some weather notes for tomorrow’s games. –Note rain percentages aren’t definitive and are best used as a reminder to check the weather status again on game-day before selecting a player from that game.

Potential rain concerns: PIT @ NYM (70% chance of rain), CHC @ WSH (40% chance of rain and scattered thunder storms), TOR @ BOS (50-60% chance of rain)

Wind Conditions of note;

PIT @ NYM – 15 mph wind blowing straight out to CF- good for hitters

COL @ STL – 15 mph wind blowing straight out to RF, could help left-handed power hitters.

TOR @ BOS – 20 mph winds blowing straight out towards the LF-CF (Green-Monster) wall, great for right handed dead pull power hitters

CLE @ DET – 17 mph winds blowing out to LF-CF

BAL @ MIN – 19 mph winds blowing out to CF

LAA @ CWS  – 16 mph winds blowing out to RF-CF, advantageous for all hitters because of Chicago’s already small ballpark

 

Team: – Keep in mind this is for the “Early Only” Daily Dollar challenge.

Pitcher: Paul Maholm | $8,500 @ SF: Maholm doesn’t get many strikeouts, but he’s a solid choice on a day not filled with many great options. The Giants as a team slug better against lefties than righties but not by much. They finished 2012 with a 104 OPS+ against lefties and a 98 OPS+ against righties.

Pitcher: Hiram Burgos | $7,600 @ CIN: Burgos came into 2013 as a relative unknown and has put up some surprising numbers so far in a small sample. Burgos is pretty much a non-prospect at 25 years old and in addition, was not ranked in Keith Law’s Top 10 prospects by team article in 2011. Burgos’s profile in the minor leagues show a guy who posted very strong K/BB ratios in his 2nd time through the league, but struggled to record K’s at a high rate in his first chance at a new level. That seems to be repeating itself so far as Burgos has only a 5.00 K/9 in 18.0 IP this season. Nonetheless, the results so far speak for themselves (3.00 ERA), and as such, he’s an intriguing choice. He does have high blowup potential (4.79 xFIP) – let’s hope this isn’t the game.

Catcher: Mike Napoli | $5,200 vs TOR: When I picked Ryan Doumit as a “safe” pick last Sunday he was promptly sat. This week, I’m taking no such chances. Mike Napoli has been a stud this season and although he hits an underwhelming .231/.313/.462 career against Mark Buehrle, the wind will be blowing hard to left field which gives me an extra reason for optimism.

First Base: Anthony Rizzo | $4,300 @ WSH: This might be the first time anyone has actively sought out Cubs players for a fantasy team on a day that Stephen Strasburg is facing them. Strasburg has been vocal about his health being fine but I’m not buying what he is selling. In addition to his recent struggles, Stephen has allowed a .330 wOBA to LHB and a .258 wOBA to RHB. In his last 15 games the left handed hitting Rizzo has a .467 OBP, three home-runs, three stolen bases, nine runs and nine RBI.

Other options: If you are timid about using a batter facing Stephen Strasburg, David Ortiz ($6,800) absolutely owns Mark Buehrle in his career .359/.397/.641 (sample size 64 at-bats). However, you will have to take a price cut at another position in addition to the cut I already have employed in the OF.  Chris Johnson ($4,200) can also be used at first base, though I will talk about his matchup more in the third base section.

Second Base: Dustin Pedroia | $5,200 vs. TOR: Revisiting a strategy known as “stacking the deck”. Buehrle should get clobbered on Saturday and Pedroia will be right in the middle of it. He bats .292 in 24 career at-bats against the soft-tossing lefty.

Third Base: David Wright | $5,000 vs. PIT: Francisco Liriano starts for the Pirates in his inaugural National League start. However, Liriano was rushed back due to the sudden injury to James McDonald. Liriano gave up four earned runs in his last Triple-A start. One could argue successfully that the Mets line-up sans David Wright, looks like a Triple-A lineup against left-handed pitching. They would be correct, and as such the Mets should still have a field day.

Other options: The aforementioned Chris Johnson ($4,200) – lefty killer extraordinaire – faces one his toughest matchups yet in Madison Bumgarner. But, killing lefties is his specialty, and Madison is coming off his worst start of the year – eight hits and five earned runs in six innings pitched against the Phillies.

Shortstop: Jean Segura | $4,400 @ CIN: Segura has been an absolute stud this year, but he’s been slowing down as of late. He’ll face Mat Latos whom has owned Ryan Braun (he hits .071 against Latos in 14 at-bats). So if the Brewers score; Segura (1-3), Carlos Gomez (4-9 with 2 HR) and Jonathan Lucroy (2-3) will supply the offense for Milwaukee.

Outfield: Jonny Gomes | $4,300 vs. TOR: More stacking of the deck, and Gomes is probably the most likely of all the Red Sox to go deep on Buehrle. Gomes hits .400 in 15 career at-bats against the soft-tossing lefty. And if Chris Johnson is a “lefty-killer” Gomes is a “lefty-obliterator”.

Outfield: Marlon Byrd | $3,400 vs. PIT: One of the members of the aforementioned Mets Triple-A vs. LHP lineup. Byrd is 3-4 in his illustrious? career vs. Francisco Lirirano.

Outfield: Ryan Sweeney | $2,000 @ WAS: Cheap, kills righties, Stephen Strasburg is scuffling, and hey, he’s 1-2 against him in his career.

Other options: Here are many, given the possibility of rainouts for TOR @ BOS, and PIT @ NYM.

Justin Upton | $5,400 @ SF: 8-14 (.571) vs. Bumgarner

Carlos Gomez | $4,700 @ CIN: 4-9 with two HR vs. Mat Latos.

Hunter Pence | $3,900 vs. ATL: 14-47 (.298) vs. Paul Maholm

Nate Schierholtz | $3,900 @ WSH:

Jon Jay | $3,900 vs. COL: OBP of .591 in his past six games. Also is 2-5 against Chacin in his career.

 

News and Notes from Friday night in the MLB.

After allowing a leadoff hit to Colorado OF Eric Young, Cardinals RHP Shelby Miller retired 27 straight batters, striking out 13 en route to the one-hit complete game shutout. The Cardinals won 3-0.

Not to be outdone, Boston LHP Jon Lester also was nearly perfect. Lester had a perfect game heading into the 6th inning before Maicer Izturis doubled down the left field line. The Sox won 5-0. It was the first time in MLB history that two pitchers threw a complete game and allowed zero walks and one-hit each.

Lyle Overbay powered the New York Yankees to a 11-6 victory over Wade Davis and the Royals. Overbay went 4-5 with a HR and 5 RBI to raise his batting average to .264. He still has a ways to go to earn any fantasy relevance – unlike his teammate and fellow veterans Vernon Wells and Travis Hafner.

Chris Davis and Nate McLouth both had excellent games for the Orioles to help lead them past the Twins 9-6. However, they were not the ones making the most fantasy relevant splash for the Orioles on Friday night. Speedster Alexi Casilla stole two bases for the Orioles as he went 2-3 with a walk in his start at second base. This is relevant for AL-Only owners and deep mixed leaguers who are always trying to find guys that get playing time. Casilla is available in literally every league, and is a great source of steals and modest batting average if he can manage to secure a somewhat full-time job.

Oakland RHP Daniel Straily struggled mightily once again (Five Innings, Six Hits, Six Earned Runs, Four Strikeouts, Four Walks vs.  Seattle) and it appears that his hot streak out of no-where in Triple-A last year seems to be garnering some skepticism. His pitch arsenal improvements however, were real, and he is a good buy-low in Dynasty Leagues. Unfortunately, his prospective chances for fantasy relevance in anything other than AL-Only seem quite meager at this point.

It could be simply that Arizona manager Kirk Gibson just wanted to give Heath Bell the day off, but the highly skilled David Hernandez did pick up the save on Friday night as the Diamondbacks defeated the Phillies 3-2. This is a situation to speculate on for saves as J.J. Putz looks to be out for quite a while. The Kirk Gibson GRIT theory would suggest that Heath Bell is likely to get the first shot at the long term closer role. I don’t advise grabbing Bell unless you’re desperate for saves. In FAAB leagues, if you’re short on $$, I might pick up David Hernandez for $0 or $1 (depending on league rules) instead of paying the $13 or so it will take to land Bell.

 

 

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