2014 Fantasy Baseball, Daily Double Switch for April 24th
Friday is a pretty big day in the DFS MLB industry. There are tons of games tonight and tons of money on the line. For instance, the Big Score is a $22 entry on Draftstreet with $20,000 going to first place. Winning a chunk of change like that might make for the best Friday ever.
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KC/BAL- Rain at 70%
LAA/NYY- Rain at 30% but gets to 70% just after the game.
SD/WSH- Rain at 70%
MIA/NYM- Rain at just 20% but reaches 60% and up after the game.
Stephen Strasburg is the top name on the board. He is priced way above the rest, but he has the matchup and is facing a team (Padres) that just played 12 innings last night. Strasburg has 42 Ks in 27 innings this season. Jesse Chavez at 18k wouldn’t have made a whole lot of season before the season, but it does now. He has a 1.38 ERA and is striking out more than one hitter per inning. Chavez faces the brutal Astros lineup and really only has two hitters to be intimidated by.
Gerrit Cole showed he means business this season by his performance the other day against the Brewers. Tonight’s lineup in St. Louis won’t be any better than what the Brewers threw out there, so I really like Cole. He’s a tad higher priced than I would have liked, but he is a strong play tonight. Robbie Ross Jr. pitched great against the Mariners in a win the other day and he should do the same tonight. The Mariners are so lefty that they struggle mightily with LHP starters on the mound. He’s not a huge strikeout threat, but he does have a nice 2.31 ERA so far this season.
Henderson Alvarez is the value pitcher to have tonight. He has a sneaky 2.66 ERA on the season and faces a team that struggles to hit at home. The Mets have been bad at home and even though they have plenty of lefties, they’re not crushing the ball right now. Alvarez should see high ownership tonight.
Others to Consider: Roenis Ellias, Ervin Santana
Matt Wieters continues to crush the ball this season (.348 with 4 home runs) and is a part of a hot Orioles lineup. They’re going to be overlooked against a great young arm in Yordano Ventura, but he’s not going to shut them down. Dioner Navarro is hitting .288 on the season and notched his first home run of the season last night. I like him tonight against Peavy in the middle of that Blue Jays lineup. I like Jesse Chavez a lot tonight, but I think Jason Castro is very rosterable tonight with his 5k price tag. He has four home runs on the season and is much better against RHP.
If for some reason Ryan Doumit squeezes into the Braves lineup tonight, play him. He’s super cheap and has good splits against Home Bailey who is struggling so far this season. Other than that, Alex Avila is the guy to look at and maybe Tyler Flowers. Avila has the better matchup against Correja, but Flowers has hit better this season (.375).
Others to Consider: Jose Lobaton, Salvador Perez
Splits don’t matter for me when it comes to Jose Abreu. The guy has been great this season hitting .244 with seven home runs. He’s actually hitting much better against RHP, so that’s a boost for us as he’s hitting .269 with 4 of those 7 home runs against RHP. Anthony Rizzo salvaged his day when he hit a late inning home run and just shows that every at bat matters for us DFS players. He’s been great at home this season and faces the RHP, Matt Garza. I think his price makes him very juicy today.
Matt Adams is underpriced for his home run potential although I think he’ll be a much better option once the team around him starts swinging better. Eric Hosmer rounds out (Adams and him) the two “value” options on the board tonight. He’s got good splits against Ubaldo Jimenez and is swinging well this season (.301 average).
Others to Consider: Adam Dunn, James Loney
Anthony Rendon is always a great option when facing LHP and that’s the case tonight. He went 0-5 last night, but I still like him against Erlin. He’s hitting .438 against LHP on the season. Dee Gordon is always in play against RHP and he’ll do that tonight against Jordan Lyles. He’s hitting .357 on the season and .404 against RHP. 11 of 12 stolen bases have come against them as well. I certainly wouldn’t get upset if you used Chase Utley or Ben Zobrist tonight either. Those two are hitting great right now with real nice matchups.
For value I’m sticking with Jedd Gyorko. He was productive for us two nights ago putting up 4.5 points and then last night he had a hit and a run scored. For 3.4k, I don’t care who he is facing. I’ll take that risk with him. He has a home run against Scherzer this season. I have faith! (Maybe a little too much).
Others to Consider: Leury Garcia, Scooter Gennett
Josh Donaldson went for two home runs last night and boy is he hot right now. He has a hit in 9 of his last 10 games including three home runs and six doubles. Donaldson has 16 hits during that span. Pedro Alvarez has home run potential tonight against Shelby Miller, a RHP that he is averaging a home run against in just over four at bats. He’s a big GPP play tonight.
Carlos Santana showed flashes of life yesterday with an RBI and a double. I wouldn’t hate the play against Tim Hudson, but don’t think he’s going to be that great. He will breakout eventually and if he does with this price tag then you’re getting great value. Can Chris Johnson stop being near minimum price on Draftstreet? He’s getting no respect these days. I like him against Homer Bailey tonight when considering price.
Others to Consider: Nolan Arenado, Aramis Ramirez
You must always consider Troy Tulowitzki with the way he’s playing. He’s not as must play away from Coors Field though, so don’t be upset if you can’t squeeze his .388 average and four home runs in. Shortstop just isn’t a thrilling position today. You could pay for Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes, but they just don’t get me that excited for their prices.
Instead of paying for a shortstop, I’ll be going for value here. Chris Owings is facing a RHP, but he actually has the same splits against RHP and LHP. He’s a .294 hitter against either pitcher. He’s not an everyday guy, so make sure he’s in the lineup if you want to use him. Everth Cabrera is still under 4k, so I have to consider him again. He has a hit in each of his last two games and shouldn’t have much strikeout potential tonight. Don’t be scared off Starlin Castro because he is facing Garza the RHP. He’s a 2.76 hitter compared to .286 against RHP in his last three seasons and is actually hitting much better against them this season compared to LHP.
Others to Consider: Jimmy Rollins, Jonathan Villar
Ryan Braun could easily go for two home runs tonight against an arm like Villanueva. I’ll keep saying it folks. Braun hits for power against RHP. 9 of his 11 extra base hits have come against RHP. Nelson Cruz has seen his price rise lately and with good reason. He’s currently hitting .312 with six home runs. I like him tonight against Ventura as he’s been known to hit guys who throw 100 hard (cough Justin Verlander cough). Angel Pagan got the day off the other day, so he should be ready to go tonight against Carrasco, a weak RHP. He’s hitting .329 on the season and .386 against RHP.
Melky Cabrera just keeps hitting. It’s a mysterious thing, but I’m not going to question it right now. Instead, I’m going to likely roster his .368 average against RHP and watch him rake. Obligatory Charlie Blackmon mention here. You can’t forget about a guy hitting .410, but I will say this. He’s hitting ONLY .313 on the road this season. Matt Joyce against RHP is something you always have to consider and then consider more when it’s a RHP like Erik Johnson. Austin Jackson has seen his price increase, but I still like him against RHP more than LHP and especially RHPs named Kevin Correja.
Curtis Granderson is starting to look better at the plate. He is 4.5k at Draftstreet, so he could be a guy to look at against a contact pitcher like Henderson Alvarez. Lastly, Christian Yelich is hitting .329 on the season and is hitting in front of some good bats. This is probably why he has 15 runs scored already. He’s a good play against the RHP, Wheeler.
Others to Consider: Carlos Gomez, Carlos Gonzalez
Tonight’s pitching is very strong, so don’t feel the need to pay up for Strasburg. You could easily fit him into your lineup with Alavarez and Cole, but I think tonight is the night to go with some sort of combo of Cole, Ross Jr., Alavarez, and Chavez. Those four should all be great.
BAL- Cruz/Davis/Jones/Wieters (contrarian play against better arm)