Monday night I participated in a FSWA 12-team fantasy baseball snake draft. The league is full of experts and is named after 2013’s FSWA Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year Jason Collette. If you follow me on Twitter, you know Jason, I, and Eno Sarris were the finalists. Congrats again to Jason as it was well deserved.

During a draft, you must plan ahead and acquire the right pieces to build a winning team. There are times when you go in with a plan, and for one reason or another, that plan changes. This discussion is to look what we have done and what we could or should have done and apply it to others drafts. We aren’t necessarily concentrating on particular players, instead, we are focusing on how we go about making the decisions to select these players.

Here is a quick league overview:

Hitting Categories:                                           Pitching Categories:

OBP                                                                       QS
SLG                                                                       ERA
Runs                                                                     WHIP
RBI                                                                       Strikeouts
SB                                                                         Saves

-Additional Roster Spots: CI, MI, Second Catcher.
-Daily Roto league (not head-to-head)
-Maximum of 180 Starts

No home runs is the biggest wrinkle. I have done some unique categories before, but this is my first ever FSWA draft and the first time ever drafting with these settings. Not even a mock. I was in a bit of a time crunch before the draft as well, so I adjusted my rankings as quickly as I could.

Here are the participants by draft order. Click on their names to follow them on Twitter:

1.      1. Pierre Becquey                               7. Renee Miller

2. Jason Collette                                  8. Richard Migliorisi

3. Greg Jewett                                     9. Mead Loop

4. Mike Wollschlager                          10. Michael Florio

5. Nick Raducanu                               11. Michael Rathburn

6. Jonathon Stalberg                          12. Dennis Farrell

I think that covers all the important details. Let’s get started.

ROUND 1 1 Mike Trout, LAA OF ESPN Becquey 2 Miguel Cabrera, Det 3B Jason Collette 3 Joey Votto, Cin 1B Greg Jewett 4 Hanley Ramirez, LAD SS Mike Wollschlager 5 Andrew McCutchen, Pit OF Nick Raducanu 6 Clayton Kershaw, LAD SP Jonathan Stulberg 7 Chris Davis, Bal 1B Renee Miller 8 Paul Goldschmidt, Ari 1B   Rich Migliorisi 9 Yu Darvish, Tex SP Mead Loop 10 Robinson Cano, Sea 2B Michael Florio 11 Carlos Gonzalez, Col OF Michael Rathburn 12 Edwin Encarnacion, Tor 1B Dennis Farrell

ROUND 2 13 Ryan Braun, Mil OF Dennis Farrell 14 Bryce Harper, Wsh OF Michael Rathburn 15 Adam Jones, Bal OF Michael Florio 16 Troy Tulowitzki, Col SS Mead Loop 17 Adrian Beltre, Tex 3B   Rich Migliorisi 18 Prince Fielder, Tex 1B Renee Miller 19 David Wright, NYM 3B Jonathan Stulberg 20 Evan Longoria, TB 3B Nick Raducanu 21 Jacoby Ellsbury, NYY OF Mike Wollschlager 22 Giancarlo Stanton, Mia OF Greg Jewett 23 Shin-Soo Choo, Tex OF Jason Collette 24 Jose Bautista, Tor OF ESPN Becquey

 

The Plan:

Draft the best available hitters (tiebreaker goes to infielders), focusing on OBP and SLG.

Initial Round One Targets: Joey Votto
Initial Round Two Targets: Troy Tulowitzki

Results: Paul Goldschmidt and Adrian Beltre

The basic game plan for this entire draft was to avoid players who would hurt my OBP and SLG categories. Votto was part of that strategy, but once he was gone, it looked like I would be deciding between Chris Davis, Carlos Gonzalez, and Robinson Cano. I feel very fortunate to land Paul Goldschmidt with the seventh pick. Although Davis had an out of this world season in 2013, I expect some regression towards his 2012 numbers. He will still be great, but I feared the OBP would slip a bit (.326 OBP in 2012). I was not willing to bank on a repeat of a .370 OBP with over .630 SLG. If Goldschmidt was gone and I was put to a decision, I would have gone with Cano.

In the second round, Tulo was gone, so I selected Beltre. It was a selection I quickly regretted, as I should have taken Wright’s superior OBP and double-digit stolen base potential. Of course, Wright too has his issues, but it would have been nice to obtain 30 or so stolen bases between Goldy and Wright.

You can also make a case Shin-Soo Choo. He was an OBP machine last season, but his SLG isn’t close to that of Wright and Beltre, and his career OBP is actually comparable to Wright’s. Not to mention they are third basemen.

I took a deep breath and acknowledged my mistake wasn’t the end of the world. I locked up my third baseman in a thin field and needed to move on in order to have a successful draft.

Surprise Selections: Yu Darvish, Adam Jones

I like Darvish and this selection should still work out just fine, but I still believe you wait on pitching with these types of hitters on the board (same with Kershaw really). This is also the earliest I have seen Darvish go. Again, this is more preference, as it is hard to say any of these first round selections are not elite at what they do.

As you may already know, I have some issues with Adam Jones as it is, but in this format, he is not a selection I expected until much later. He had a .318 on-base percentage last season (.322 for his career).

ROUND 3 25 Cliff Lee, Phi SP ESPN Becquey 26 Carlos Gomez, Mil OF Jason Collette 27 Jay Bruce, Cin OF Greg Jewett 28 Jason Kipnis, Cle 2B Mike Wollschlager 29 Freddie Freeman, Atl 1B Nick Raducanu 30 Dustin Pedroia, Bos 2B Jonathan Stulberg 31 Adam Wainwright, StL SP Renee Miller 32 Justin Upton, Atl OF   Rich Migliorisi 33 Jose Fernandez, Mia SP Mead Loop 34 Felix Hernandez, Sea SP Michael Florio 35 Ian Desmond, Wsh SS Michael Rathburn 36 Jose Reyes, Tor SS Dennis Farrell

ROUND 4 37 David Ortiz, Bos DH Dennis Farrell 38 Eric Hosmer, KC 1B Michael Rathburn 39 Alex Rios, Tex OF Michael Florio 40 Matt Carpenter, StL 2B Mead Loop 41 Yasiel Puig, LAD OF   Rich Migliorisi 42 Stephen Strasburg, Wsh SP Renee Miller 43 Buster Posey, SF C Jonathan Stulberg 44 Max Scherzer, Det SP Nick Raducanu 45 Chris Sale, CWS SP Mike Wollschlager 46 Madison Bumgarner, SF SP Greg Jewett 47 Carlos Santana, Cle C Jason Collette 48 Yadier Molina, StL C ESPN Becquey

The Plan:

Draft a top middle infielder with speed/SLG combo. Then draft best hitter available (preferably one that contributes to the stolen base category).

Initial Round Three Targets: Jason Kipnis
Initial Round Four Targets: Justin Upton/Yasiel Puig/ Matt Carpenter/Joe Mauer

Results: Justin Upton and Yasiel Puig

At this point in the draft, my eyes are on Joe Mauer. But now wasn’t the time. Buster Posey and Carlos Santana were both still on the board and I thought I could wait another go around before I had to make a move on Mauer. I took the chance and decided to wait.

I was hoping Kipnis would fall to me, but he did not. Neither did Pedroia. This format is a good one for Matt Carpenter, but his lack of stolen bases had me pass initially in round three. He was then taken in round four before I selected, leaving me with the following situation.

In round three, I chose Upton over Puig simply because I believe he has the safer floor in this format. Upton has never posted an OBP lower than .350 and although his SLG has varied, he should hover above .450 with the possibility of eclipsing .500 mark. When I made this selection, I assumed I was choosing between having Puig or Upton on my team. I never expected ManBearPuig to make it back to me, but when he did, I thought ‘why not?’ Carpenter was scooped up and Puig walks enough, so even if he hits .270 this season, his OBP should still be in the .340 range. Despite the reckless driving and the extra weight e put on, the upside was too much to pass up.

I did not obtain any middle infielders, but I did get a couple of SLG hitters with some speed in Puig and Upton.

Surprise Selections: Carlos Gomez, Alex Rios, Starters

I have a hard time trusting Gomez and Rios’s OBP contributions. Starters flew off the board, eight in rounds three and four. I do my best to avoid taking pitchers early, but if the draft continues in this manner, a change in plans will have to happen.

ROUND 5 49 Ian Kinsler, Det 2B ESPN Becquey 50 David Price, TB SP Jason Collette 51 Albert Pujols, LAA 1B Greg Jewett 52 Aroldis Chapman, Cin RP Mike Wollschlager 53 Justin Verlander, Det SP Nick Raducanu 54 Craig Kimbrel, Atl RP Jonathan Stulberg 55 Josh Donaldson, Oak 3B Renee Miller 56 Joe Mauer, Min C   Rich Migliorisi 57 Billy Hamilton, Cin OF Mead Loop 58 Ryan Zimmerman, Wsh 3B Michael Florio 59 Anibal Sanchez, Det SP Michael Rathburn 60 Allen Craig, StL 1B Dennis Farrell

ROUND 6 61 Matt Kemp, LAD OF Dennis Farrell 62 James Shields, KC SP Michael Rathburn 63 Adrian Gonzalez, LAD 1B Michael Florio 64 Kenley Jansen, LAD RP Mead Loop 65 Gerrit Cole, Pit SP   Rich Migliorisi 66 Brandon Phillips, Cin 2B Renee Miller 67 Elvis Andrus, Tex SS Jonathan Stulberg 68 Ben Zobrist, TB 2B Nick Raducanu 69 Zack Greinke, LAD SP Mike Wollschlager 70 Jason Heyward, Atl OF Greg Jewett 71 Matt Holliday, StL OF Jason Collette 72 Aramis Ramirez, Mil 3B ESPN Becquey

The Plan:

Continue taking high OBP/SLG hitters (specifically an infielder), but be ready to pounce on a starter if more come off the board.

Initial Round Five Targets: Jason Donaldson/Joe Mauer
Initial Round Six Targets: Gerrit Cole, Matt Holliday

Results: Joe Mauer and Gerrit Cole

The plan was to take both Josh Donaldson and Joe Mauer in rounds five and six. That plan was spoiled. I thought Mauer was a nice value in round three, so I am very happy to get him here. Being patient paid off and I now have a very solid foundation of OBP and SLG combos. Normally, I wait on the catcher position, but there was too much value here to ignore (Mauer getting every day at-bats as a 1B).

In very surprising fashion, pitchers were coming off the board at a quicker rate than I anticipated. A total of 14 starters were taken after 64 picks. I expected something like 10. There is no reason to be stubborn at this point. I felt comfortable with my offensive foundation, so I decided to go with Gerrit Cole. A trendy pick, I know, but he was the highest rated starter on my board. I did consider Holliday here, but I thought he could make it back to me in round seven. He did not.

At this juncture in the draft, I felt I was a little light on speed and realized my infield situation was not going as planned. Those things happened to go hand in hand since I planned to scoop up some of my steals via my middle infield spots.

Surprise Selections: Billy Hamilton, Brandon Phillips

Billy Hamilton at 57 was quite surprising. You have seen this horse beaten before, but I’m not sure there is much profit here in this selection. Hamilton has to be good, very good, in this spot. That seems a lot to ask in an OBP/SLG league.

Brandon Phillips is already falling off offensively, but again, in an OBP league, his value is that much lower.

My Current Roster (Six Rounds):

C- Joe Mauer
C-
1B- Paul Goldschmidt
2B-
SS-
3B- Adrian Beltre
CI-
MI-
OF- Justin Upton
OF- Yaseil Puig
OF-
OF-
OF-
UTIL-

P- Gerrit Cole

ROUND 7 73 Greg Holland, KC RP ESPN Becquey 74 Homer Bailey, Cin SP Jason Collette 75 Kyle Seager, Sea 3B Greg Jewett 76 Pedro Alvarez, Pit 3B Mike Wollschlager 77 Starling Marte, Pit OF Nick Raducanu 78 Hunter Pence, SF OF Jonathan Stulberg 79 Yoenis Cespedes, Oak OF Renee Miller 80 Jayson Werth, Wsh OF   Rich Migliorisi 81 Jonathan Lucroy, Mil C Mead Loop 82 Jean Segura, Mil SS Michael Florio 83 Wil Myers, TB OF Michael Rathburn 84 Josh Hamilton, LAA OF Dennis Farrell

ROUND 8 85 Gio Gonzalez, Wsh SP Dennis Farrell 86 Wilin Rosario, Col C Michael Rathburn 87 Matt Cain, SF SP Michael Florio 88 Mat Latos, Cin SP Mead Loop 89 Brandon Belt, SF 1B   Rich Migliorisi 90 Mark Trumbo, Ari 1B Renee Miller 91 Carlos Beltran, NYY OF Jonathan Stulberg 92 Trevor Rosenthal, StL RP Nick Raducanu 93 Jordan Zimmermann, Wsh SP Mike Wollschlager 94 Mike Minor, Atl SP Greg Jewett 95 Jose Abreu, CWS 1B Jason Collette 96 Shelby Miller, StL SP ESPN Becquey

The Plan:

Add speed. And as usual, continue to focus on OBP/SLG production.

Initial Round Seven Targets: Starling Marte/Kyle Seager/Jayson Werth/Wil Myers
Initial Round Eight Targets: Gio Gonzalez/Mat Latos/Brandon Belt

Results: Jayson Werth and Brandon Belt

Several possible targets come off the board and again, I was choosing between two outfielders. This time it was Jayson Werth and Wil Myers. Under these settings, I give the edge to Werth. The teams behind me had OF needs, so I wasn’t sure he would make it back to me in round eight.

Looking back, I should have selected Segura. This is the part of the draft where I was too concerned about OBP and this was short-sighted on my part. Considering part of the plan was to add stolen bases, you would think this was a slam dunk selection. The Beltre choice is really one of preference, but this may be my first true draft misstep. If I select Segura, I obtain a leadoff hitter with a high amount of steals, and some upside. Considering the roster situation, this was the pick to make. And I missed it.

This is where we need to change our plan. If you noticed, I didn’t mention anything about drafting a middle infielder, and yet I did so in prior rounds. Sometimes you need to reset yourself during a draft and remember what you need to achieve. Even clicking through each position to view the players can be helpful in triggering those thoughts. I lost sight of the bigger picture because I got caught up in my OBP/SLG games. Maybe I got too stubborn with my thought process.

In round eight, I ended up going with plan C. Gio Gonzalez was A, Latos was B. Belt was C. Napoli also has a higher value in this format, but he has age and health issues working against him. It appears unlikely that Belt would make it back to me by pick 104.

Overall, these two rounds could have gone better. Werth and Belt should be good, but I probably did not maximize my draft’s potential. In fairness, the Belt selection occurred because Gonzalez and Latos were sniped. However, if I took Segura in round seven, there is a chance Myers or Werth make it back to me in round eight, or perhaps even one of the starters. It created a ripple effect, and I paid for it dearly.

I missed out on adding a starting pitcher among a group of draftees that have not been shy about taking them off the board. I wasn’t thrilled. There were now two concerns. One was my middle infield, and two was my starting pitching. It was not my intention to wait on the middle infield positions, but after passing on Segura and then drafting Belt, it was becoming obvious that waiting even longer may be the best course of action. And the way starters were coming off the board, I thought I also may have to get creative with my staff. Trouble’s ahead?

Surprise Selections: Pedro Alvarez, Mark Trumbo

At this point in the game, you are taking who you believe in more and more. The ADP reports we sometimes rely on are basically out the window for the most part anyway. However, I do wonder if the SLG contributions of Alvarez and Trumbo make up for their horrific OBPs. I think you can certainly make more of a case for Alvarez, who in a daily league, can be benched against lefties.

ROUND 9 97 Mike Napoli, Bos 1B ESPN Becquey 98 Desmond Jennings, TB OF Jason Collette 99 Everth Cabrera, SD SS Greg Jewett 100 Alex Gordon, KC OF Mike Wollschlager 101 Sergio Romo, SF RP Nick Raducanu 102 Michael Wacha, StL SP Jonathan Stulberg 103 Jose Altuve, Hou 2B Renee Miller 104 Alex Cobb, TB SP   Rich Migliorisi 105 Joe Nathan, Det RP Mead Loop 106 Jered Weaver, LAA SP Michael Florio 107 Doug Fister, Wsh SP Michael Rathburn 108 Masahiro Tanaka, NYY SP Dennis Farrell

ROUND 10 109 Michael Cuddyer, Col OF Dennis Farrell 110 Chase Headley, SD 3B Michael Rathburn 111 Brian McCann, NYY C Michael Florio 112 Shane Victorino, Bos OF Mead Loop 113 Glen Perkins, Min RP   Rich Migliorisi 114 Martin Prado, Ari 3B Renee Miller 115 Billy Butler, KC DH Jonathan Stulberg 116 Anthony Rizzo, ChC 1B Nick Raducanu 117 Matt Moore, TB SP Mike Wollschlager 118 Koji Uehara, Bos RP Greg Jewett 119 Victor Martinez, Det DH Jason Collette 120 Julio Teheran, Atl SP ESPN Becquey

The Plan:

Take the best starter on my board (try to get strikeouts). Also, with closers coming quickly off the board, grab a closer in round 10 to as a pre-emptive strike against the closer run (focus on strikeouts).

Initial Round Nine Targets: Alex Cobb, Julio Teheran, Masahiro Tanaka
Initial Round Ten Targets: Glen Perkins

Results: Alex Cobb and Glen Perkins

Well, the first part of the plan worked out well. Welcome aboard Alex Cobb. I was happy to snag him as my second starter.

Unfortunately, the other half of my plan was also my second blunder of the draft. I took Glen Perkins. The caliber of closer really isn’t the issue (knee should be fine) here. It was something totally different. Can I just blame ESPN’s draft software? Maybe next year they can separate relievers and starters for us. Of course, I should be paying attention, so this one is all on me. So what am I rambling about you ask? Well, I thought there were less closers on the board (for instance, I didn’t even see that Uehara and Robertson were still available) and I didn’t want the closer run to happen after my 10^th round selection, leaving me with potential problems in the saves category. I completely misjudged the situation. If I correctly evaluated this scenario, I would have selected Hill, Prado, or perhaps Teheran. Head meet wall.

Surprise Selections: Glen Perkins

#@%^!

ROUND 11 121 Aaron Hill, Ari 2B ESPN Becquey 122 Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD SP Jason Collette 123 Chase Utley, Phi 2B Greg Jewett 124 Matt Adams, StL 1B Mike Wollschlager 125 Starlin Castro, ChC SS Nick Raducanu 126 David Robertson, NYY RP Jonathan Stulberg 127 J.J. Hardy, Bal SS Renee Miller 128 Danny Salazar, Cle SP   Rich Migliorisi 129 Pablo Sandoval, SF 3B Mead Loop 130 Domonic Brown, Phi OF Michael Florio 131 Daniel Murphy, NYM 2B Michael Rathburn 132 Salvador Perez, KC C Dennis Farrell

ROUND 12 133 Matt Wieters, Bal C Dennis Farrell 134 Andrew Cashner, SD SP Michael Rathburn 135 Cole Hamels, Phi SP Michael Florio 136 Miguel Montero, Ari C Mead Loop 137 Jason Castro, Hou C   Rich Migliorisi 138 Wilson Ramos, Wsh C Renee Miller 139 Manny Machado, Bal 3B Jonathan Stulberg 140 Brandon Moss, Oak 1B Nick Raducanu 141 Jeff Samardzija, ChC SP Mike Wollschlager 142 Hisashi Iwakuma, Sea SP Greg Jewett 143 Xander Bogaerts, Bos 3B Jason Collette 144 R.A. Dickey, Tor SP ESPN Becquey

The Plan:

Finally address my middle infield issue. Look at starters, but keep an eye on the catcher situation.

Initial Round Eleven Targets: Aaron Hill/Chase Utley
Initial Round Twelve Targets: Danny Salazar/Jason Castro

Results: Danny Salazar and Jason Castro

And there goes Hill at the top of Round eleven, along with Utley. I am not big fan of Murphy in this format, so I passed. I decided to take Danny Salazar, while keeping an eye on the catcher position. Castro was one of the few catchers available who wouldn’t drain my OBP, so I pulled the trigger.

Salazar, again, is a trendy pick, but with health concerns surrounding Hamels and Iwakuma, he became the top SP on my board.

My 12^th round selection completes my catching duo. Castro has the best OBP potential of the remaining catchers and his low IFFB% and new approach gives me enough believe that he could replicate 2013.

Bogaerts was nabbed shortly after, and I then wondered if he should have been my pick, but I also know if I can draft Jed Lowrie (SS/2B), the value between the two should be close (if both remain healthy).

Surprise Selections: JJ Hardy, Manny Machado

I understand drafting for position, and I certainly take players based on availability as well (hence the Castro pick), but sometimes the value is just not there. Hardy annually posts low OBPs, and although he hits homers, his slugging percentage the past two seasons weren’t enough to warrant his low on-base skills.

As for Machado, he is still much more about the defense than offense and that knee still has to be a concern. He produces similar on-base and slugging numbers to Hardy, but comes with more upside.

My Current Roster (12 Rounds):

C- Joe Mauer
C- Jason Castro
1B- Paul Goldschmidt
2B-
SS-
3B- Adrian Beltre
CI- Brandon Belt
MI-
OF- Justin Upton
OF- Yaseil Puig
OF- Jayson Werth
OF-
OF-
UTIL-

P- Gerrit Cole
P- Alex Cobb
P- Danny Salazar
P- Glen Perkins

After the 11^th and 12^th rounds, I knew I would have to not miss on Jed Lowrie (2B/SS). Other middle infielders I kept in mind were Brian Dozier, Omar Infante, and Stephen Drew. I also was aware that my stolen bases would have to come from the rest of my outfield, since these infielders weren’t going to get it done in that aspect. The plan was to grab Brett Gardner and possibly Ben Revere if he fell far enough.

I didn’t exactly know what to foresee going into this draft, and I would say parts of it have not gone as expected. However, I believe in adjusting to the situation and getting proper value. I never would have imagined that my catcher situation would be completed before I drafted a second baseman and shortstop. Mind blown.

As for my team, I believe I am leading the way in the OBP and SLG categories, while having a nice starting pitcher foundation.

Can I complete my plan of drafting above replacement level middle infielders? Can I address my stolen base issues without crushing my OBP and SLG? And what about filling out the rest of my staff and closers? A lot to be done. Can I get it done? Find out tomorrow.

And be sure to leave comments in the section below and hit me up on Twitter. Would love to know how you feel about my team thus far and my approach. I am curious to hear how you feel about the other teams as well. Thanks.