2014 Fantasy Baseball: FSWA Expert Draft – Team Recap (Part Two)
During a draft, you must plan ahead and acquire the right pieces to build a winning team. There are times when you go in with a plan, and for one reason or another, that plan changes. The idea is to look at this draft in hopes to apply it to others. Not so much the results, but the way we go about making our decisions.
Yesterday, I published part one of my FSWA fantasy baseball 12-team draft experience. Be sure to check it out for my thoughts and selections, as well as the league settings. If you remember, we left off with my team needing help in the middle infield and address my stolen bases. I also needed to fill out the rest of my starting staff and ensure I feel comfortable with my closer situation. The overall plan was to build a strong team in the OBP and SLG categories (no HR), while being conscious of all the counting stats, keeping tabs on my steals and saves, and selecting high strikeout pitching.
My team after 12 rounds:
C- Joe Mauer P- Gerrit Cole
C- Jason Castro P- Alex Cobb
1B- Paul Goldschmidt P- Glen Perkins
2B- P- Danny Salazar
SS-
3B- Adrian Beltre
CI- Brandon Belt
MI-
OF- Justin Upton
OF- Yasiel Puig
OF- Jayson Werth
OF-
OF-
UTIL-
Let’s proceed with discussing rounds 13 through 28 and see how everything turns out.
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The Plan:
Draft a middle infielder. Watch the closer situation.
Initial Round Thirteen Targets: Jed Lowrie/Brad Miller
Initial Round Fourteen Targets: Ernesto Frieri
Results: Jed Lowrie, Jim Henderson
And I finally select my first middle infielder. I love Brad Miller, but I had my reasons to go with Lowrie in this spot. One, I believe Lowrie (when healthy) is a better fit for my team. He is eligible at both shortstop and second base, which is a definite plus, since I lacked both positions coming into this round. If Lowrie stays healthy, he should be a top-12 shortstop. Another reason was that I believed Miller could come back around to me.
That closer run finally did happen and I took Henderson as my second RP, missing out on Frieri. I considered Grilli, but I worry about his health and he lost some velocity last season when he came back from his injury.
Surprising Selections: CC Sabathia, Kris Medlen
Again, this comes down to preference, but I can’t expect Sabathia to outperform Cingrani, Masterson, and even Lester. Injury risk Johnny Cueto is still on the board, as well as Hiroki Kuroda. Believing in a modest bounce back is fine, but the timing is what’s most surprising.
Medlen was a serious red flag entering the draft and again, not sure he should be taken before the likes of Cingrani. It now appears he will be undergoing a second Tommy John surgery.
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The Plan:
Look at acquiring another middle infielder or outfielder with steals in mind. Target a starter.
Initial Round Fifteen Targets: Brad Miller/Brett Gardner
Initial Round Sixteen Targets: Chris Archer/Khris Davis
Results: Brett Gardner, Chris Archer
The plan is becoming more and more need and player specific as each round passes. Although I am always trying to maximize value, the middle to late rounds give us an opportunity to land players we may be slightly higher on than others. When we do this, however, we still need to keep our team needs in mind, as well as not to completely over reach (you don’t want to lose too much value). Brad Miller fit this scenario, but he was unfortunately taken a few picks before my selection. Brett Gardner was plan B, and he also happened to fit this scenario.
If you picked up our wonderful draft guide (and we hope you did – need to pay da bills), Gardner can be a nice alternative to his teammate Jacoby Ellsbury. I was ripped for the pick in another league (took him about 20 picks earlier than this selection in a 15-teamer) for reaching, but I disagree. When you get to the later stages of a draft, it isn’t a terrible thing to take a player you believe helps round out your team, 10-20 picks earlier than the ADP would otherwise indicate. Gardner doesn’t hurt my OBP, but he should give me 30+ steals and may not even be too harmful to my slugging percentage.
If you are wrong on a player at this point, the thorn in your side is much less sharp compared to the earlier rounds. If you are incorrect in the fifth round on a player such as Billy Hamilton, it may very well sink your season. An early selection that fails could cost you in a number of ways. One, you missed out on a better player in that particular round. Two, you tend to build around your earlier picks, so if you happen to be wrong, your foundation may start to crack. In Hamilton’s case, if you draft him, you are likely going to depend on him to carry you in the stolen bases, but if he fails, you may end up tanking that category. His bust rate is too high for where he was selected. There were safer alternatives and you could select speedsters much later in the draft. The other issue is it becomes difficult to cut bait, preventing you from making the proper roster decisions.
As for my next selection, I am happy to land Chris Archer. I am a believer. Keep cutting that walk rate buddy. You could argue that A.J. Burnett was the better pitching choice, but I felt he could have made it back to me by my next draft choice. Garza was also considered, but he may have trouble staying healthy again and his K-rate has been declining.
Surprising Selections: Rafael Soriano
Surprising may not be the right word for this selection, but there are some major red flags with Soriano and I am staying away. You can always take issue with some picks here and there in a draft, but we are approaching the point where there will be less and less surprises.
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The Plan:
Keep an eye on the closers and pounce on another if it gets thin. Target the best available starter or speedster.
Initial Round Seventeen Targets: Bobby Parnell/Nate Jones
Initial Round Eighteen Targets: Brian Dozier/A.J. Burnett/Adam Eaton
Results: Nate Jones, Adam Eaton
Once three more closers went off the board in front of me, I thought it would be wise to try and pick up a third closer in this spot. Now, he hasn’t locked up the job just yet, but it really does seem inevitable.
As for my second pick, I partially regret it. I feel Eaton could develop into a solid 4th fantasy outfielder in this format (he would be 5th on my team), but Anthony Rendon may have been a better selection in that spot. I lack a middle infield outside of Lowrie, so it would have made sense to snatch up Rendon. Even Swisher may have been better. Again, I was too focused on speed and got tunnel vision.
Regret.
Surprising Selections: Adam Eaton.
Sigh.
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The Plan:
Punt my middle infield and acquire another starter and lock up some more steals for a possible future trade.
Initial Round Nineteenth Targets: Corey Kluber
Initial Round Twentieth Targets: Ben Revere
Results: Corey Kluber, Ben Revere
I’m part of the World Kluber Friendship Society. I think he can deliver K’s with a high three ERA and a decent enough WHIP. If he didn’t get hurt last season, his ADP would likely be higher. He can certainly make strides off of last season, but even if he doesn’t change too much, he can still provide value here.
Once I realized how much more I botched my infield situation, I decided to lock up stolen bases via another outfielder. Yes, this makes my Eaton selection look even worse, but I am not going to compound the mistake my passing on Revere. This is a daily league, allowing me to carefully watch the standings. If my SLG begins to slip, I will be sure to bench my weaker SLG players, in this case, Revere. I should have enough stolen bases, so I can trade one of the three if need be.
My team after 20 rounds:
C- Joe Mauer P- Gerrit Cole
C- Jason Castro P- Alex Cobb
1B- Paul Goldschmidt P- Glen Perkins
2B- P- Danny Salazar
SS- Jed Lowrie P- Jim Henderson
3B- Adrian Beltre P- Chris Archer
CI- Brandon Belt P- Nate Jones
MI- P- Corey Kluber
OF- Justin Upton
OF- Yasiel Puig
OF- Jayson Werth
OF- Brett Gardner
OF- Adam Eaton
UTIL- Ben Revere
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The Plan:
Draft the best remaining middle infielders, keeping in mind OBP/SLG
Initial Round Twenty-First Targets: Omar Infante
Initial Round Twenty-Second Targets: Neil Walker
Results: Omar Infante, Neil Walker
Oddly enough, this selection order should be reversed. I was fortunate to land Walker, who should have the better season between he and Infante. Walker is actually a pretty good value here, so hopefully my team won’t be in dire need of much more infield help.
If I wasn’t so desperate at the MI position, I could have snatched up Josh Johnson. However, with the position getting thin, I couldn’t take the chance on not having starting caliber infielders.
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The Plan:
Lock up a third catcher. Finish off my pitching staff.
Initial Round Twenty-Third Targets: John Jaso/Welington Castillo
Initial Round Twenty-Forth Targets: A.J. Griffin/Ivan Nova
Results: Welington Castillo, A.J. Griffin
In two-catcher leagues, I normally like to lock up a third starting catcher. I chose Griffin over Nova because of his home ballpark. Looking back, Tyson Ross may have been the better pick here just to see if he can hold the gains he made last season. If so, then wowza. At this point in the draft, it probably pays to find out.
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The Plan:
Find some future value. Acquire infield depth.
Initial Round Twenty-FifthTargets: Stephen Drew
Initial Round Twenty-Sixth Targets: Tyler Clippard/A.J Pollock
Results: Stephen Drew, Tyler Clippard
One of these days, Drew will sign a contract and join a team…hopefully in Major League Baseball. When he does, I will have another useful bat to play at shortstop. Not too spectacular, but serviceable.
I decided to go with Tyler Clippard because that is how little I believe in Rafael Soriano. The writing is on the wall. I’m not sure he lasts past June.
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The Plan:
Consider a third baseman. Try to find some a bat that can offer high SLG (and solid OBP), as well perhaps help in the counting stats.
Initial Round Twenty-Seventh Targets: Trevor Plouffe/Andre Ethier
Initial Round Twenty-Eighth Targets: Carlos Quentin
Results: Andre Ethier, Carlos Quentin
When Quentin is healthy, he will likely be in my starting lineup. He offers a nice OBP/SLG combo. I’m not sure how many at-bats he can give my team, but I would be thrilled with 400.
Andre Ethier gets hated on because of his contract, but if you use him against righties, you have yourself a pretty nice hitter.
Final Roster:
C- Joe Mauer
C- Jason Castro
1B- Paul Goldschmidt
2B- Neil Walker
SS- Jed Lowrie
3B- Adrian Beltre
CI- Brandon Belt
MI- Omar Infante
OF- Justin Upton
OF- Yasiel Puig
OF- Jayson Werth
OF- Brett Gardner
OF- Adam Eaton
UTIL- Carlos Quentin
B- Ben Revere
B- Stephen Drew
B- Welington Castillo
B- Andre Ethier
P- Gerrit Cole
P- Alex Cobb
P- Danny Salazar
P- Chris Archer
P- Corey Kluber
P- A.J. Griffin
P- Glen Perkins
P- Jim Henderson
P- Nate Jones
B- Tyler Clippard
Final Thoughts:
My favorite pick was Joe Mauer in the 5th round (pick 56). I usually don’t draft catchers so high, but I think he was of great value in that spot. I feel I got a pretty good deal on Alex Cobb (pick 104) as well. One other selection that could really work out is Yaseil Puig. There is some risk, but at pick 41, it seems like I paid a lot closer to his floor price. If he comes close to his upside this season, he would likely be a top-20 player, perhaps higher.
I think Walker and Lowrie can do well as my primary middle infielders. I don’t love it, but they should be solid. I like the upside of my pitching and the strikeouts they should deliver. There is some concern with relying on pitchers so young, but I don’t believe I overpaid for any of them.
Despite a few mistakes, I think the draft turned out fairly well for my team. I think I can compete for a title.
As usual, health is key.
I hope these recaps were helpful and gave you a better sense of how to work through a draft.
I would love to hear what you guys think in the comments. You can also hit me up on Twitter @Rich_Migs.
The Author
2 Comments
nice article .
liked hearing about your thoughts and your plans .
feel your team would have been better served @ 176
with gyorko instead of gardner .
a little surprised to see last year’s nl stolen base champ
last until pick # 297 .
Thanks for the compliments.
Fair point on Gyorko. But at the time I was worried too much about his OBP. If things break right, he can give me .330 in that department, but it could also end up in the low 300’s. Plus he has plenty of HR power, but the league doesn’t count HRs, so someone like Lowrie could give me similar SLG%. And it is also a redraft league, not a keeper league.
I do happen to like Gyorko a lot, however. In 5×5 leagues, he is in my top-5 for the second base position. Maybe just based on that belief, I should have snatched him up. I do like Gardner’s OBP potential however.
I think as the draft went along, more managers became concerned about OBP and SLG, which was the reason for some slips with SB type players.