As regular readers know, I have been going through my rotters and sleepers series up until this week. I could go through the same process with pitchers, but pitchers are so plentiful and so often used, that I thought of going through another method. Instead of focusing on individual pitchers, I am conducting a study to see what particular traits will predict pitching success.

This week we will look at pitchers in the National League and next week we will look at the pitchers in the American League. Only current starting pitchers were evaluated. In order to be a part of the study, a pitcher had to throw at least 100 innings in 2013. Pitchers were split into three tiers based on their fair run average (FRA). Fair run average is a Baseball Prospectus statistic that attempts to measure a pitcher’s true ERA after park effects and fielding are neutralized.

There is a considerable amount of discussion within the industry about batted ball statistics. Some say that pitchers can only control strikeouts, walks, and home runs. Others see patterns with ground ball rates, fly ball rates, and line drive rates. Some teams have begun to sign pitchers with high ground ball rates because they think they will perform inherently better than pitchers without a high ground ball rate. The study below will show how pitchers in each of the three tiers performed in regards to games started, innings pitched, ground ball rate, strike outs per nine innings, and walks per nine innings. The general idea is that pitchers in the first tier will perform better in at least one or two categories than the other two tiers. As usual, it will make more sense when we see a visual

• Tier One: FRA below 4.00
• Tier Two: FRA between 4.00 and 4.50
• Tier Three: FRA above 4.50

As you can see, the overall ground ball rate is not significant in terms of improving performance. On an individual basis, it might be beneficial depending on the team a pitcher plays for. We will get to that next week. In terms of sleepers, you want to look for pitchers that approximate the characteristics of a tier one pitcher. That would be looking at the strikeout and walk rates of the starting pitchers. Then, you would look for pitchers that have a considerably lower FRA (FIP and SIERA are also excellent resources) than their actual ERA.

There are two primary statistics that point more towards the luck a pitcher enjoyed than the actual skill of the pitcher. The concept is something called regression to the mean. In other words, pitchers that enjoyed bad luck will likely see a reversal of that luck the next season. Let’s take a look at some of the pitchers in first tier that would surprise you. Some of them may have even gone undrafted in many fantasy drafts.

Jhoulys Chacin—Colorado Rockies

ERA: 3.47                                                                             SO/9: 5.7

FRA: 3.95                                                                             BB/9: 2.8

INN: 197.3                                                                           BABIP: .288

GB: 48%                                                                               LOB%: 71.9%

On one level, it makes perfect sense for Chacin to go undrafted in most leagues. He seemed to actually enjoy some good luck last season with a lower than normal BABIP and a pretty good left on base percentage. So, we should expect some regression and opening up on the disabled list won’t help him get back to 200 innings. Yet, when he gets off he will be a good waiver candidate. His groundball rate is slightly better than the league average. While that might not mean anything in most stadiums, in Coors Field it means something.

Eric Stults—San Diego Padres

ERA: 3.93                                                                             SO/9: 5.8

FRA: 3.50                                                                             BB/9: 1.8

INN: 203.7                                                                           BABIP: .302

GB%: 42%                                                                            LOB%: 69.6

Stults was largely forgotten last season too. Sure, there are some warts on this pitcher. In particular, the strikeout rate is lower than what you would like, but he also pitches half of his games in Petco Park. That helps to explain why the lower than normal ground ball rate actually works in his favor. Normally, you would like to have all of your pitchers with a healthy strikeout rate, but this is a guy that threw more than 200 innings last year in a very good home ballpark. He deserves a good look.

Lance Lynn—St. Louis Cardinals

ERA: 3.97                                                                             SO/9: 8.8

FRA: 3.48                                                                             BB/9: 3.4

INN: 201.7                                                                           BABIP: .314

GB%: 45%                                                                            LOB%: 71.8%

Lance Lynn didn’t go undrafted unlike the other two guys, but he has been under-drafted. This is particularly true when you consider that he has the kind of strikeout rate we like to see in fantasy starters. He also will enjoy more run support than most pitchers. The biggest difference is probably the addition of Peter Bourjos in center field. If he is healthy then more of those fly balls will be caught this year than last year.

Bartolo Colon—New York Mets

ERA: 2.65                                                             SO/9: 5.5

FRA: 3.63                                                             BB/9: 1.4

INN: 190.3                                                           BABIP: .294

GB%: 43%                                                            LOB%: 80%

Fantasy fans are staying away in droves. It is understandable when you consider that Colon had a lot of good luck last season (left on base percentage was extremely high), he is moving to a lesser team, and he would probably be falling off a cliff any day now, but even if he produces the FRA numbers he would still be a very solid end of the rotation fantasy guy. In particular, his walk rate has been very good since his last incarnation.

Jon Niese—New York Mets

ERA: 3.71                                                             SO/9: 6.6

FRA: 3.91                                                             BB/9: 3.0

INN: 143.0                                                           BABIP: .326

GB%: 53%                                                            LOB%: 72.5%

Niese is a good example of how a high ground ball rate is not always what it is cracked up to be. It depends on who you have to field those ground balls. The Mets starting infield had a collective -15 defensive runs saved last season. It stands to reason that this was partially responsible for the .326 BABIP. If the Mets can improve their infield defense this season then we might see a lower BABIP and a lower ERA.