2014 Fantasy BaseballFantasy BaseballTotal Run Index

2014 Fantasy Baseball: Total Run Index, TRI vs. 1B ADP

votto land
Source: Jared Wickerham/Getty Images North America

Last time, we took a look at how total run index (TRI) compares with the average draft position for catchers. Of course, what makes life harder is that the NFBC rules are not necessarily the rules you will play under. As we saw, a couple of players that likely will qualify as catchers in your league did not qualify in this one. Mike Napoli for instance was listed as a first baseman, so that throws off the TRI rankings just a little.

The absence of David Ortiz and Billy Butler really throws the rankings off. Even without those guys, first base will likely be the deepest position in the draft. Twelve of their first sackers were taken in the top 100, but if you include David Ortiz it is a baker’s dozen. That definitely changes the complexion of the position because it gives you so many options on how to approach it on draft day.

If we count Ortiz and Butler, you see 17 different first basemen that scored ten or more runs above average according to TRI. Three different players are above average that fell below 300 in the ADP department. It’s almost impossible to walk away from the draft without at least one quality first basemen.

POS

ADP

Index

Rank

Miguel Cabrera

1

    1.90

+58.0

1

Paul Goldschmidt

2

    3.10

+24.4

5

Chris Davis

3

    7.28

+21.6

7

Joey Votto

4

  17.14

+44.3

2

Edwin Encarnacion

5

  19.38

+27.3

4

Prince Fielder

6

  19.90

+31.2

3

Freddie Freeman

7

  21.86

+19.1

10

Albert Pujols

8

  48.31

+22.2

6

Eric Hosmer

9

  50.90

  +5.6

18

Allen Craig

10

  52.10

+17.9

11

Adrian Gonzalez

11

  60.03

+21.3

8

Mark Trumbo

12

  70.24

  +9.5

16

Anthony Rizzo

13

115.14

  -0.6

24

Jose Abreu

14

122.00

  NR

NR

Matt Adams

15

131.21

  +3.6

20

Brandon Belt

16

141.21

+14.7

13

Mike Napoli

17

147.10

+20.6

9

Brandon Moss

18

149.93

+14.4

14

Kendrys Morales

19

161.10

+12.2

15

Mark Teixeria

20

193.28

+16.7

12

TRI Bargains

Joey Votto

Let’s suspend disbelief for the time being and take the 2013 numbers at face value. Votto still had a .926 OPS with a 156 wRC+. Paul Goldschmidt had an identical 156 wRC+ and Chris Davis’ 167 mark was not that superior. Votto hasn’t fallen below 155 since 2008, so he is more likely to surpass that total than the other two.

Prince Fielder

Teams have forever worked under the mistaken impression that lineup protection matters when it comes to offensive production. The home ballpark matters a whole lot more and Fielder is moving to the second best home ballpark for hitters in baseball. Meanwhile, a lineup that features Adrian Beltre, Shin-Soo Choo, Alex Rios, and Elvis Andrus isn’t exactly chopped liver.

TRI Players to Avoid

Chris Davis

TRI is a lot about past performance, so I can buy an argument that TRI is too conservative on Paul Goldschmidt. Davis will be 28 when the season begins and he has had only two seasons with wRC+ of 100 or better. 2013 just seems really out of character for a guy that never hit more than 33 home runs in a season before 2013. I’ll buy 2012 as a norm and that’s certainly a viable fantasy regular, but not the third best player at the position.

Eric Hosmer

Hosmer is basically a poor man’s Paul Goldschmidt. People are drafting him this high based on spec and that is rarely ever a good idea. Even if we take his last season performance at face value we see a guy that produced .302/.353/.448. Fine, from June on he produced 16 home runs, 68 runs, and 63 RBIs. That is four homers, 17 runs scored, and 16 RBIs per month. Over a six month season that would equal 24 home runs, 102 runs scored, and 95 RBIs. That’s good, but not top ten good.

TRI Waiver Candidates

Garrett Jones (404.96 ADP)

Sometimes a change of scenery is a good thing. Jones’ five year TRI average (+5.5) is nearly equal to Eric Hosmer’s 5.6 over the past three years. Yet, he was the 34th ranked first baseman because of a sluggish 2013 season. He has very little competition coming into the season in Miami, so he should at least put up some decent counting numbers.

Paul Konerko (481.18 ADP)

2013 was a nightmare for Konerko and with both Juan Abreu and Adam Dunn in Chicago it will be interesting to see how that playing time is divided. In the previous four seasons before 2013, Konerko averaged better than 30 home runs and 90 RBIs a season. A .265 BABIP could be an indication that a bounce back season is forthcoming. I wouldn’t spend a good draft pick betting on that, but a waiver claim wouldn’t be too much of a gamble.

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2 Comments

  1. pobo
    January 25, 2014 at 11:18 am — Reply

    Is there a link to a full explanation of TRI? I’d enjoy reading that very much. Thanks

    • January 25, 2014 at 11:34 am — Reply

      There is an introductory article called “What is Total Run Index” from last year. There will also be a lengthy explanation in this year’s draft kit.

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