2014 Fantasy BaseballFantasy BaseballTotal Run Index

2014 Fantasy Baseball: TRI Substitution Value – First Basemen

adams land

Last time we took a look at the substitution values for the catchers. But it couldn’t be more different than looking at first basemen. When you look at the median score for the first basemen, you see the highest median value of any position. This is particularly true when you throw in the designated hitters that also count as first basemen in their league. Those include David Ortiz, Billy Butler, Kendrys Morales, and even Adam Dunn.

The end result is that all 24 players on the list stand greater than zero in raw total run index. In fact, there are quite a few players left off the list that will end up being above zero as well. Some of them will be drafted higher than some of the players on the list. However, they fell below the top 24 guys in total run index. We’ll take a look at some of those guys after we look at the table with the top 24 guys.

TRI

POS

SUB

Miguel Cabrera

58.0

17.2

40.8

Joey Votto

44.3

17.2

27.1

Prince Fielder

31.2

17.2

14.0

Edwin Encarnacion

27.3

17.2

10.1

Paul Goldschmidt

24.4

17.2

7.2

Albert Pujols

22.2

17.2

5.0

David Ortiz

21.6

17.2

4.4

Chris Davis

21.6

17.2

4.4

Adrian Gonzalez

21.3

17.2

4.1

Mike Napoli

20.6

17.2

3.4

Freddie Freeman

19.1

17.2

1.9

Allen Craig

17.9

17.2

0.7

Billy Butler

16.7

17.2

-0.5

Mark Teixeira

16.7

17.2

-0.5

Jose Abreu

17.2

17.2

0.0

Brandon Belt

14.7

17.2

-2.5

Brandon Moss

14.4

17.2

-2.8

Kendrys Morales

12.2

17.2

-5.0

Mark Trumbo

9.5

17.2

-7.7

Justin Morneau

8.8

17.2

-8.4

Paul Konerko

7.4

17.2

-9.8

Adam Dunn

7.2

17.2

-10.0

Eric Hosmer

5.6

17.2

-11.6

Garrett Jones

5.5

17.2

-11.7

On the Outside Looking In

It would be a waste of time to look at players outside the top 24 at just about every other position, but first base is the deepest position in the draft. So, here is a quick look at the players that did not make the list at first base, but likely will be considered on draft day.

Anthony Rizzo—Chicago Cubs (-0.6 TRI, -17.8 SUB)

I’m actually a pretty big Rizzo fan, but TRI is based on past performance. People drafting Rizzo are drafting him based on what they think he’ll become. When you look at the plate discipline numbers for Rizzo you see a player that has suffered from some bad batted ball luck. Couple that with his power potential and it’s easy to see why people have been making him a top 15 fantasy first baseman so far.

Matt Adams—St. Louis Cardinals (3.6 TRI, -14.6 SUB)

The Cardinals are planning to reconfigure their entire starting lineup to get as many bats into the lineup as possible. That means shifting Allen Craig to right field and leaving Adams at first base. So, a bet on Adams is a bet based on spec. If he gets more than 500 plate appearances and if he produces as he did last season over those 500 plate appearances then he likely will end up as a top 20 fantasy first baseman.

Chris Carter—Houston Astros (3.8 TRI, -14.4 SUB)

Carter played a full season at the big league level for the first time in his career. He hit 28 home runs and drove in more runs than any other Astro, but he also led the big leagues in strikeouts. The question moving forward is whether he will continue to strikeout at record rates or whether his contact rate will steadily improve. If that happens, he could sneak into the top 20 among first basemen.

Yonder Alonso—San Diego Padres (2.8 TRI, -15.4 SUB)

Everyone keeps waiting for Alonso to break out of his shell and become the complete hitter they thought he was in Cincinnati. Mind you, no one is expecting Chris Davis numbers, but he seemed to hover around a .150 isolated power in the minors. If he could see those numbers again he would slug around .450 at the big league level. That would get him close to an .800 OPS.

Adam Laroche—Washington Nationals (3.7 TRI, -14.5 SUB)

The final member of the undrafted team is about as consistent as a Las Vegas slot machine. He seems to alternate very productive seasons with seasons that are relatively unproductive. Last season, he produced 20 home runs and 62 RBI, but that is just not going to cut it at first base. He seems capable of producing 25 home runs and closer to 90 RBIs and if he can do that he should be on a roster somewhere in your league.

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