Profile

Jameson Taillon is an imposing figure on the mound as his 6-foot-5, 245 pound frame would attest, but his eventual Major League Baseball debut has been delayed due to him undergoing Tommy John surgery last April as he went on to miss the entire 2014 season. Taillon was the second overall pick of the Pirates in the 2010 draft and is considered to be a consensus top-3 prospect for the Pirates. Taillon’s fastball was capable of reaching 98 and sat comfortably in the mid 90’s while he displayed a great curveball before the surgery, although his changeup and command are still spotty. It remains to be seen how his stuff will look initially as he slowly works his way back into form.

Pundits

Baseball America is the highest on him as they have him ranked as the 29th-best prospect while MLB.com has him 31st, Keith Law 36th, and FanGraphs 66th. The overarching theme among the experts seems to be we’ll see Taillon in MLB sooner rather than later, but refining his command is his most important issue to iron out.

From Keith Law:

He had issues with command, in part due to a tendency to overthrow both pitches and miss to his glove side but perhaps also because there was something wrong or unstable in his elbow in 2013. He didn’t have great deception and needed to continue to refine his changeup, the latter of which would have been a priority for him in Triple-A at the start of last year.

From MLB.com:

When healthy, Taillon has three above-average to plus pitches at his disposal, all coming from a big 6-foot-5 frame. His fastball sits in the mid-90s and he maintains his velocity deep into starts. He has an outstanding curve, a big overhand breaking ball which can miss bats as well. His changeup hasn’t been as consistent, but it has shown flashes of being at least a Major League average pitch. While wildness hasn’t been a real issue, his overall command hadn’t been as sharp, even during his successful 2013 campaign.

From Kiley McDaniel of FanGraphs:

He flashed the same power stuff in pro ball as he did in high school, with an explosive mid-90’s fastball and a curveball that was a 70 at times, though his changeup and command lagged behind. There wasn’t really a question if Taillon could stick as a starter, he just had trouble with some finer points of pitching and consistency.

Production

According to FanGraphs, a K/9 mark above 7.5 or 8.5 is considered to be above average and Taillon has cleared those benchmarks in all but one of his minor league stops. His ability to induce whiffs and limit home runs is encouraging, but as you can see his control became an issue in 2013 as evidenced by his walk rate. His low strand rates are undoubtedly having an adverse affect on his ERA as he’s never posted a mark below 3.82 in an extended sample size. It’s clear Taillon still has something to prove at the Triple-A level.

Projections

The Steamer projections seem to think Taillon is poised for a late season call-up but he’s a longshot to become a fantasy factor this year outside of keeper and dynasty formats. It will be interesting to see how his strand rates and ERA end up as the projections are nearly identical to his production in the minors in those areas. For a pitcher coming off TJ, they seem to be a bit optimistic regarding his chances of being a meaningful contributor the Pirates rotation this year. It’s worth mentioning his eventual home of PNC Park is considered to be a pitcher-friendly venue that limits home runs and we already know Taillon is good at limiting the longball. Taillon has also bettered his projected K/9 mark in all but one stop in the minors so he may have more upside in that area.

Prediction

Taillon is only 23 and the Pirates will likely be very cautious in his recovery from TJ this year in order to avoid any setbacks. The right-hander has been throwing bullpen sessions recently and used his curveball for the first time in his rehab process, but he is still being limited to 25 pitches at a time. He’s poised to start the year in extended Spring Training and will likely be on a strict pitch count throughout the year. He has a chance to be a impact player for the Pirates later in the season if everything goes well in his recovery and he shows well in Triple-A, but there’s a lot of hurdles for him to clear. Additionally, it usually takes pitchers some time to get back into form when coming off of TJ surgery so there’s also a chance Taillon won’t be as effective as in the past, at least initially. He’s undraftable in redraft leagues but makes for a decent target in keeper or dynasty formats considering his pedigree. It’s much more likely though that he becomes noteworthy in fantasy baseball for next season.

Thanks to FanGraphs, MLB.com, and ESPN for providing the statistical information. Be sure to comment below if you have any questions or remarks concerning the article. You can follow me on Twitter @MattMoczy and I’m more than willing to answer any questions.