2015 Fantasy BaseballFantasy Baseball

2015 Fantasy Baseball: Puig Phooey

Welcome to another episode of the Twilight Zooooooone, where in some alternate universe Yasiel Puig is healthy and helping your fantasy team take home a championship. Unfortunately, in this dimension, he’s underperforming and hurt (again).

Puig was a media, fan and fantasy sensation from the moment he arrived in LaLaLand. He hit a scalding .436 and crushed seven long balls during his debut month. In 2014 he continued his assault on baseball, smacking 12 HR and batting .309 in the first half. But that’s when it all started going downhill.

The Dodgers new-found phenom was aided by a .383 BABIP in 2013 and had a .370 BABIP pre-All-Star break in 2014, including a .461 mark in May. Even without much of a sample size, we know that kind of luck is bound to run out, and it did.

To say Puig has struggled tin 2015 would be an understatement. The Cuban defector is hitting just .250/.320/.434 — .055/.066/.068 below his career numbers. He’s also been a complete dud in the power department, hitting a mere 10 HR with 35 RBI.

Over his last 162 games (a full season’s worth), Puig is hitting .270 with 15 HR, 64 RBI and seven stolen bases. Those are below average numbers for a player who gets the praise and hype he does. Those 162 games? That’s exactly half of his career. So for half of his career, he’s a .270 hitter with, well, Andre Ethier-like power numbers. Not only are his previous year’s numbers inflated by an astronomical BABIP, the 19 HR he hit his rookie year could very well be close to his ceiling. You can thank an absurd 21.8% HR/FB for that. His FB% has actually increased since then, but the percentage that are leaving the park is returning to a normal rate, as has his hard-hit percentage. Add those numbers to below-replacement-level defense, and you’ve got yourself a highly overrated player.

It’s fair to say Yasiel Puig may never be the June 2013 version of himself we all want him to be.

Of course, we’ve seen lots of players come out of the gate mashing and fall back to earth just as quickly (see Shelton, Chris or Berroa, Angel). But to put Puig in the same conversation as flops like Shelton and Berroa is unfair. He’s an extremely talented player who’s had to live up to impossible expectations from the start. Injuries are certainly contributing to his poor campaign as well. He missed 39 games with a left hamstring strain earlier in the season and missed two more when a blister broke on his hand. So he’s not new to injuries.

The concern I have here is that the Dodgers seem intent on rushing him back from his current right hamstring injury. While they haven’t said those exact words, doctor manager Don Mattingly was satisfied with Puig’s MRI results, saying the injury was “way less” severe than the left hamstring strain he had in April and he expects him to play in this weekend’s series in Houston.

If that sounds familiar, it should.

Here’s Don Mattingly, M.D.’s reasoning as to why Puig wasn’t in the lineup following his hammy pull back in April: “It’s early. We’re being cautious.”

And did he have a rosy outlook for his return to the field? Mattingly thought so. He even compared him to a kangaroo, saying “[Puig came in Tuesday] bouncing — a pretty good sign.” A word of caution: don’t list Don Mattingly as your emergency contact.

Puig ended up going on the disabled list, but he aggravated the condition just days before he was set to be activated and didn’t return till June.

The kid plays with heart, there’s no denying that. But the hustle and/or reckless abandon he gives can be a negative when trying to heal from an injury like this. Hamstrings are very touchy. We’ve seen many athletes claim to be 100 percent, only pull up lame a few games later.

One thing’s for certain — we shouldn’t read into what Mattingly is saying. He isn’t a reliable source. He wants his players to be healthy and play, but he’s not a magician, nor can he predict the future. The only thing that will make Yasiel Puig’s hamstring better is rest. The Dodgers just don’t seem to want to wait around for that to happen, and that will inevitably cause them to lose their slugger for a longer period of time.

 

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