It is often difficult to go against conventional wisdom. It leads you open to criticism and often ridicule. That being said, if there has been any move that has been universally panned this offseason, it has been the Colorado Rockies’ acquisition of Gerardo Parra. If the Rockies had simply moved Corey Dickerson to first base and moved Parra to left field, the move might not have been received so harshly. The subsequent trade for Jake McGee sent many prognosticators into a tail spin.

At first glance, it’s easy to see why. The Rockies have essentially traded Dickerson for Parra and the numbers clearly show that Dickerson is the superior hitter. Parra had a career year in Milwaukee last year and then came back to earth following his trade to Baltimore. It is easy to be bearish on his future and if he had signed anywhere but Denver he would have likely appeared on my bust list, too.

This is when I usually remind everyone of the salient numbers on Corey Dickerson:

Home: .355/.410/.675

Away: .249/.286/.410

Like many before him, Dickerson looked like a legend in Coors Field and looked very ordinary outside of it. Naturally, home and road splits don’t look like that for every Rockie, but there are unusual splits for most players in a Rockie uniform. Why wouldn’t Parra benefit from the same kind of split? More on that later.

Where he has been

For 29 other teams, Gerardo Parra is a really good fourth outfielder. He can play all three positions well and he puts up decent offensive numbers to boot. Mind you, the numbers above won’t blow anyone’s skirt up. I don’t think the Rockies were blown away by the numbers above either. They were looking at something else entirely.

Parra has +27 runs saved in over 3000 career innings as a left fielder. He has +41 runs saved as a right fielder in over 4000 innings in his career. He’s virtually neutral in center field according to the Fielding Bible data, but when you have someone that has proven not only capable of playing all three positions, but playing them at least competently you have to place some value in that. Incidentally, Fangraph’s UZR shows similar numbers over the course of his career in all three outfielder slots. Since he is slated to play left field, his fielding alone makes him a considerably better option than Dickerson.

What could be

We have to assume that these numbers were adjusted when he signed with Colorado. After all, he has never consistently hit like this at any level. In real baseball, when you put together above average fielding with numbers like this you end up with a two or three win player. That would be well worth the investment the Rockies are paying. However, I’m not sure they are giving him the full credit for what he could achieve in the thin air of Coors Field.

The difference between Parra and the other players we’ve evaluated in this series is that he has already been playing full time for the Diamondbacks, Brewers, and Orioles. What makes him a breakout candidate is not necessarily any necessary improvement in his performance, but the fact that he is moving into the best hitter’s park in baseball. Our rosy picture will include a multiplier to account for the advanced park effects of Coors Field.

The Rosy Picture

You’ll notice that the projections and the rosy numbers are not that far apart. I have to assume that they are using a similar multiplier to estimate the impact of Coors Field. If he produces numbers close to these, he will be worth a bench spot in most mixed leagues. After all, he offers a little bit of everything in all of the categories. At the very worst, he will be the best defensive outfielder the Rockies have had since Larry Walker roamed in right field.