Finding breakout players isn’t all that difficult. We are looking for players that were drafted outside of the top ten at their position and are currently performing amongst the best at their position. Before we do that, we are going to look at the top five guys that were drafted and see how they’re doing.

The Preseason Top Five

We show the top five at the position to demonstrate one undeniable fact. The fantasy draft is very important and we don’t want to diminish the importance of it, but you can overcome a bad one easier than you think. Of the top five guys at the position, only one (Miguel Cabrera) is really playing close to his potential. The rest are either a cut below or well below their pre-season expectations.

Chris Carter is only owned in 71 percent of Yahoo leagues even after his hot start. He is third amongst first basemen added, so that tells you that most leagues didn’t see him get drafted at all. Yet, here he is probably amongst the top ten in first basemen through the first two months of the season. The numbers you see above and below are through Sunday’s action. First, we will start with the basic numbers.

Conventional Numbers

As you can see, the power has always been there. Carter has averaged 30 home runs a season the last three years and is on pace to hit well more than 40 home runs this season. The question from here is whether this trend will continue. The issue with Carter has been plate discipline. Sure, he walks a healthy percentage, but his contact rates were ridiculously low. We need to compare this season with seasons past to see if there has actually been improvement on that front.

Plate Discipline

When we look at Carter we see the greatest example of the difference between plate discipline and the so-called hit tool. Carter clearly has good plate discipline. The average big league hitter swings at 30 percent of pitches outside of the zone (Oswing). Carter is clearly better than that and has been at his best this season. Yet, he is still swinging and missing a ton. Heck, his contact rate on balls in the zone (Zcontact) is worse than the overall league average contact rate. Most hitters approach 90 percent contact on pitches in the zone. So, while Carter is a patient hitter, he’s actually a horrible hitter overall. Still, the obvious power is tantalizing in spite of the substandard hit tool.

If anything, the prognosis for Carter would appear to be pretty good based on his lower BABIP. The league average hitter hovers around .300, but he has consistently under-produced in that category. Ff we look at the batted ball statistics for Carter, we will get some idea of whether he will continue to perform as he has or if he is headed for a downfall.

Batted Ball Statistics

Numbers are fascinating when you take the chance to look at them carefully. When you consider the last two charts you can easily identify which season was Carter’s worst without even looking at the conventional numbers. Clearly, 2015 was a disaster on a number of different levels. Every important rate (particularly, line drives, home runs per fly ball, and hard hit balls) was down as compared to the other seasons. It shouldn’t be any surprise that he hit below the Mendoza line.

According to those last three stats, Carter is an above average hitter when he does make contact. His line drive rate is a few ticks above the major league average and his home runs per fly ball rate is ridiculously high (ten percent is the traditional average). His early results from 2016 might be out of context as compared to his career norms, so 50 home runs is probably not in play for Carter, but 40 home runs is still a consideration. The last category is probably the most important. He hits the ball harder more often than most hitters. That would seem to indicate that a .300 BABIP is possible.

At the end of the day, Chris Carter is still a flawed player. He likely will not hit much better than .250 and that might even be a stretch. However, he is on pace to eclipse 40 home runs and 100 RBI on the season. He can be had in 29 percent of Yahoo leagues 27.5 percent of ESPN leagues. I’m sure the rest of you could get him in a trade from an owner that thinks they are selling high. I suppose there is that possibility you might slightly overpay for his services, but if you are struggling at first base, he might be a good option.