2016 Fantasy BaseballFantasy Baseball

2016 Fantasy Baseball: Orioles Re-sign Chris Davis

“Crush” Davis is heading back to Baltimore. Davis was seeking a contract somewhere north of $200MM this offseason, and as a Scott Boras client that has hammered 126 homers in the last three seasons, that request seemed plausible. Although a lot of the money spent this offseason has gone into the market for starting pitching, Chris Davis remained firm on his stance and reportedly turned down a $150MM offer from the Orioles earlier this winter. The tension over the disparity between the two sides’ contract wishes was starting to mount heading into January, and it seemed as though Baltimore was just about ready to move on from Davis.

The organization reportedly offered a five-year, $90MM contract to free agent outfielder Yoenis Cespedes this week, and manager Buck Showalter decided to weigh in on the issue when asked about his All-Star slugger: “How much is enough?” Showalter said of Davis. “I asked Chris during the season, ‘Chris, when you walk into a Target store, can you buy anything you want? So, how much is enough?’” The Baltimore Orioles skipper went on to say, “I love Chris, but if that makes or breaks our team, shame on us;” perhaps signifying his belief that it may be about time that the ballclub starts looking into other options.

Whether enticed or instigated by the comments of his manager, Davis finally settled and took the O’s following contract offer of seven years, $161MM. ESPN’s Buster Olney broke down the Chris Davis’ contract structure as $17MM annual salary from 2016-2022, followed by annual payments of $3.5MM from 2023-32, and $1.4MM from 2033-37 with no interest on the deferrals. This puts the total dollars of the contract a lot closer to Davis’ initial wishes, and also keeps Baltimore from having to pay the $23MM annually had they not deferred some of the money of the contract. Still, the deal is nearly double what they gave Adam Jones whose current $85MM contract was previously the largest in club history.

It is a large contract, no doubt, and what Davis was asking for initially was astronomical; however, that kind of power is incredibly rare and valuable in today’s game. Chris Davis is one of the most prolific power bats in an era of baseball that has been dominated by pitching, and he is 2016’s most accurate representation of a true “home-run-hitter.” Davis has averaged 40 home runs a year since playing his first full season with the O’s in back in 2012 and crushed 47 longballs last season after getting off to a very slow start. Not only did his home run totals skyrocket after the All-Star break, but Davis was also robbed of at least five homers in 2015, which could have resulted in his second 50 home run campaign in three years.

Though that kind power can only be matched by a handful of other players in MLB, Davis’ game is not without its flaws. Many clubs would be ecstatic with the .255 lifetime batting average considering the pop, but Davis also had the third worst contact percentage in all of baseball last year, trailing only rookies Joc Pederson and Kris Bryant. He also lead the league with 208 strikeouts in 2015 and has a career 31% strikeout rate. That kind of tendency to swing and miss makes Davis susceptible to long slumps and can make the player a bit of a wildcard in terms of fantasy value.

Heading into his age 30 season, Chris Davis is probably a solid second round draft pick in most leagues. His age gives him the possibility of still having his best season to date, but it would still be a little risky taking him in the first round in hopes that he can replicate his 2013 season in which he had a 1.004 OPS and lead the league with 53 home runs and 137 RBI. It’s worth noting that Davis will be returning to a very hitter-friendly home ballpark in Camden Yards (though most ballparks are hitter-friendly with his strength) and will definitely have a comfort level he would not have had anywhere else. In addition to all of the homers, Davis was fourth in all of baseball last year in hard contact percentage which increases his likelihood of getting hits whenever he puts the bat on the ball.

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