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A Look back at the 2013 Draft: NL Third Basemen

Excuse me while I get on my soapbox. Blogging is not a way to make a living, but it is a way to get out some frustrations and this piece allows me to get out some of mine. Here we go: batting average is dead. Let it die. Unfortunately, the Philadelphia Phillies and many fantasy players won’t let batting average die by keeping Michael Young alive as a viable fantasy player.

This is based largely on his 2011 performance when Young came close to winning a batting title when he hit .338 for the season. A high batting average certainly covers up a multitude of sins. In this case, it covers up the fact that this is really all Young can do these days. He certainly can’t field the baseball with any proficiency, he can’t run the bases any quicker than the average player these days, and the decent pop he had in his bat is gone. Don’t drink, don’t smoke, what do you do?

Young is hitting .333 in the early going in 2013, so maybe he will be relevant on that level, but when a player only gives you batting average he really doesn’t give you a whole lot. The pundits that won’t let batting average die questioned the Rangers for trading him. Why would you trade away such a great team leader? The quick and direct answer is that he sucks at everything except when he is hitting for high average. Check out his placement among the third basemen on the following table and make up your mind for yourself.

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Owned

TAV

BR

RC

David Wright

99

.312

32.0

106

Pablo Sandoval

98

.294

8.1

57

Ryan Zimmerman

97

.287

16.0

89

Martin Prado

97

.285

13.6

94

Aramis Ramirez

92

.308

31.5

105

Chase Headley

92

.324

37.9

113

Todd Frazier

92

.284

11.2

67

David Freese

87

.290

21.9

81

Michael Young

81

.239

-16.7

63

Chris Johnson

55

.263

5.1

66

Pedro Alvarez

50

.276

8.4

76

Juan Francisco

13

.240

-3.0

21

Jordan Pacheco

11

.252

-4.1

65

Chris Nelson

7

.270

2.2

52

Placido Polanco

6

.241

-11.2

29

Greg Dobbs

3

.255

-6.6

37

Luis Cruz

3

.272

2.6

37

Luis Valbuena

1

.234

-8.6

27

Eric Chavez

1

.293

9.5

45

Ty Wigginton

1

.264

-5.7

38

Median

—-

.274

6.6

64

Fortunately for Young, fantasy baseball is not real baseball. If it were than Young would look even worse. Simply put, there isn’t a position on the diamond he can field with any level of proficiency. Yes, he has a Gold Glove, but Rafael Palmeiro once won a Gold Glove at first base when he spent more than 80 percent of the season at DH. Simply put, the Gold Glove voters often couldn’t identify quality fielding if it fell from the sky, hit their face, and wiggled.

Young’s value can be tied directly to his batting average on balls in play. For most players, this is a luck based statistic that typically fluctuates from season to season. The big league average is typically around .300. He has six seasons above .340 in that department. It shouldn’t be a surprise that those were very productive seasons for him. They would for anyone.

The dangers in fantasy baseball (as well as real baseball) is betting on luck. Without exceptional luck, Young is a below average offensive player and a terrible all-around player. With exceptional luck he becomes solid, but not spectacular. Based on this fact, he is the ninth most owned third basemen in the NL and 15th overall. That means most people consider him to be average. I suppose that’s not completely out of whack, but there are a lot better choices that are more reliable for your team.

On the positive end, there are some National League third basemen that have been undervalued because of the almighty batting average. Chief among these are the likes of Pedro Alvarez and Juan Francisco. Both come from different parts of the fantasy jungle. Alvarez hit 30 home runs a year ago in what appeared to be a breakout season for him. Yet, he is the 11th most owned third basemen in the National League in mixed leagues. Why? He is typically a low batting average guy and has gotten off to a slow start this year. Too many people panic when they see a guy get off to a slow start.

Juan Francisco is a similar player, but he is destined to be a bench player for his fantasy life because he can’t get on the field enough. The Braves have become the latest team to be fascinated by Chris Johnson and his BABIP mirage. Johnson is fantasy baseball (and real baseball) equivalent to crack. He gives you quick periods of euphoria as he shoots line drives around the ballpark. Then, the crash comes in. He doesn’t make enough contact and he hardly ever draws a free pass.

The crash will come and when it comes Francisco will get back on the field. Francisco offers elite power potential where Johnson is more of an occasional power source. Both Johnson and Francisco can play at both corner spots, so each should get 400 plate appearances, but you shouldn’t base your third base future on either. Both are decent bench options for you though.

This brings us back to the soap box and the foils of batting average. Each player on your team must bring something else to the table. Speed and power are fairly constant over time. Batting average rises and falls like the tide. At the end of the day, there really is no discernable difference between Michael Young and guys like Jordan Pacheco and Chris Nelson. They all have average to below average power and rely on batting average for their value. Eleven percent own Pacheco and seven percent own Nelson. A whopping 81 percent own Michael Young. That is what I call being a slave to batting average.

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