Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy, April 23, 2019: DraftKings Value Plays
This evening’s 13-game slate features just one hurler priced at/over the $10,000 mark on DraftKings (Kenta Maeda – $10,000 – at the Cubs) and two additional arms above $9,000 (Jose Quintana – $9,700 at home against the Dodgers and Zach Eflin – $9,400 on the road against the Mets). While there may be some values on the mound, we’ll need to find value elsewhere in their lineups to squeeze in each of the ideal bats into our lineups this evening. With that said, here are a trio of bats that present value on Tuesday that will provide you with some roster flexibility.
As always, these players are projected to be in today’s starting lineups but please pay attention to team lineups once they are released.
A.J. Pollock | Dodgers | OF | $3,600
A.J. Pollock is one of the cheapest ways to get access to the scorching hot Dodgers offense tonight in Chicago. The game total currently sits at 8 runs with a 4 run projected team total for the Dodgers. Pollock gets the platoon advantage against LHP Jose Quintana at Wrigley and owns a career .351 wOBA and 119 wRC+ against southpaws. For his career, Quintana owns a .311 wOBA and .403 SLG allowed to RHB, allows more FB to RHB and has surrendered 109 of his 136 career homers to RHB. Quintana blew up for eight earned runs on April 5th in Milwaukee but has posted two stellar outings since, albeit against the Pirates and Marlins, allowing zero earned in 14 frames with a 18:1 K:BB. I think this is a good value play on Pollock with home run potential along with some leverage for those hoping to ride Quintana’s hot streak.
Kendrys Morales | Athletics | 1B | $3,200
Switch-hitting Kendrys Morales and the Athletics are home against the Rangers and Lance Lynn. The game total currently sits at 8 with the Athletics projected for 8.35 runs as a -135 favorite behind Frankie Montas. Morales is off to a slow start with his new club — .179/..277/.250 with just one homer and a .071 ISO. Small sample BvP truthers will enjoy this: In a small(er) sample of 10 PAs heads-up with Lynn, Morales has left the yard twice and owns a .880 wOBA and 2.371 OPS. I think this is a great spot for Morales to get going tonight and at just $3,200 it won’t take much to pay off that salary.
Travis Shaw | Brewers | 3B | $3,200
Travis Shaw is another bat that is off to a rough start this season. He’s hitting just .182/.276/.286 with two homers and is striking out a career-worst 32.2% of the time. Shaw will get the platoon advantage in St. Louis against Daniel Poncedeleon. The Cardinals right-hander does have some pronounced reverse splits, but Shaw fares well against RHP over the course of his career with a .349 wOBA, a .827 OPS and a .227 ISO. Shaw puts the ball in the air off of righties 43.5% of the time with a HR/FB that sits at 17.3%. Look for Shaw to be lower owned since he’s struggling and facing a reverse splits arm. Get right tonight, Travis!
Admittedly the aim was to identify values at a couple different positions. Without the writeups, here are a couple more values I like for tonight’s slate: Nicky Delmonico (White Sox, OF, $3,200 vs. Andrew Cashner) Chris Davis (Orioles, 1B, $2,700 vs. Ivan Nova) and Brandon Crawford (Giants, SS, $2,900 vs. Trent Thornton).
Going long tonight: Nolan Arenado, Mark Reynolds, Jose Abreu, Chris Davis and Carlos Correa.
Stacks: Coors, White Sox RHB/Orioles game stack, Rays and Twins
Best of Skill!