It’s Not Manny Machado’s Fault He’s Overrated In Fantasy
I only own Manny Machado in one format. I am not heavily invested into him from a fantasy perspective and the one league I own him in is far from a traditional league, it is ottoneu which is a linear weights league. In actuality what that means is that his real on field value predicates his fantasy value rather than artificial stats we usually rely on like RBI, R, and SB for example. In that league, Machado is a tremendous player and I would not recommend moving him.
However, in standard formats, Machado is a bit overvalued. Yes, he contributes across the board but not in the two categories that really drive fantasy worth – HR and SB. He does hit a few homers and he does steal a few bases, but he is on pace to hit 10 and steal 12. Is that valuable? Sure, but I imagine many other owners would be willing to pay a high premium for that and I do not necessarily think he would be worth that type of high premium.
I love Machado as a player, but I do not expect him to keep his average at its current level since it is backed by a .371 BABIP. He is averse to walking as well, which has his OBP still below .350 despite a robust .319 average. If you own him in an OBP league he hasn’t been particularly valuable. And since he is only eligible at third base in most leagues, his value takes a hit as well. For a middle infielder that production is more than fine, but at third base there are other options you can put in place of Machado that combined with whatever you get back for him will provide more value than what you are currently getting.
This is no slight against Machado, it is more a slight against the standard fantasy systems that we currently use. The fact that Machado, who has arguably been one of the top 10 baseball players in the league overall this season, is overrated in a fantasy perspective is rather ridiculous and it is solely due to the archaic way of the game we play and love so much.
Unfortunately, the fact of the matter is that he is rather overrated – especially so in OBP leagues. Talk to a potential trade partner and include Machado’s name in the conversations and see if they are willing to bet on his potential and name rather than his results. If they are, you can probably get a great deal for him and push your team to a higher level.