J.A. Happ- Advanced Stats Support Sleeper Status
The industry has been going a bit stir crazy over strand rate and luck factors as excuses for pitchers not performing up to their standards. In the case of J.A. Happ though, he really was bothered by bad luck and variance in categories that he had large skill improvements in.
Here is a table showing Happ’s improvements over last season – grand scheme overlook before I dive into the analysis of individual pitches.
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Here is J.A. Happ’s 2011 season: 69% Strand Rate
| Strikeout Percentage | Walk Percentage | |
| Bases Empty | 19.4% | 11.1% |
| Men On Base | 18.4% | 12.8% |
| Men In Scoring Position | 18.2% | 15.6% |
Notice How Happ’s peripherals get progressively worse with men on base.
Here is J.A. Happ’s 2012 season: Also recorded a 69% Strand Rate
| Strikeout Percentage | Walk Percentage | |
| Bases Empty | 22.4% | 9.2% |
| Men On Base | 23.7% | 8.6% |
| Men In Scoring Position | 28.9% | 8.2% |
This time, Happ’s peripherals got markedly better with men on base, yet, strand rate bad luck stayed the same.
Here are some more interesting splits:
Happ in 2011 LH/RH splits:
| Split | Strikeout % | Walk % | HR/9 | FIP | xFIP |
| vs L | 22.1% | 9.2% | 0.61 | 3.16 | 3.60 |
| vs R | 18.5% | 12.5% | 1.35 | 5.05 | 4.82 |
Happ in 2012 LH/RH splits:
| Split | Strikeout % | Walk % | HR/9 | FIP | xFIP |
| vs L | 23.1% | 5.0% | 1.16 | 3.56 | 2.90 |
| vs R | 22.9% | 10.3% | 1.19 | 4.18 | 4.29 |
Let’s take a look now at Happ’s pitches from 2011
| Pitch | Whiff Swing % | GB% | LD% | FB% | Popup % | HR/(FB+LD)% | BA | ISO | TAv |
| Fastball | 21.30% | 25.26% | 26.84% | 36.32% | 11.58% | 9.17% | .266 | .205 | .305 |
| Sinker | 16.92% | 40.00% | 24.29% | 30.00% | 5.71% | 5.26% | .309 | .160 | .299 |
| Cutter | 17.42% | 40.58% | 24.64% | 33.33% | 1.45% | 12.50% | .416 | .299 | .389 |
| Curveball | 18.68% | 40.63% | 18.75% | 28.13% | 12.50% | 6.67% | .310 | .214 | .309 |
| Changeup | 18.13% | 39.00% | 23.00% | 24.00% | 14.00% | 4.26% | .221 | .116 | .227 |
Here is Happ’s 2012 pitches:
| Pitch | Whiff Swing % | GB% | LD% | FB% | Popup % | HR/(FB+LD)% | BA | ISO | TAv |
| Fastball | 26.70% | 27.39% | 18.47% | 43.95% | 10.19% | 14.29% | .271 | .271 | .316 |
| Sinker | 13.07% | 41.10% | 9.59% | 43.84% | 5.48% | 7.69% | .289 | .211 | .296 |
| Cutter | 23.12% | 52.05% | 17.81% | 28.77% | 1.37% | 5.88% | .261 | .148 | .256 |
| Curveball | 25.17% | 70.31% | 15.63% | 12.50% | 1,56% | .244 | .056 | .200 | |
| Changeup | 18.33% | 51.79% | 16.07% | 23.21% | 8.93% | .327 | .127 | .286 |
Green shows great increase (in a good way – so when something like LD goes down a lot, it’s marked in green)
Red conversely shows great decrease in skill
Happ moves to the American League into a tough home ballpark in Toronto. However, he’ll get more wins, and his skills consolidation that is likely coming, will help him be a great target for all AL-Only league owners. In deep mixed-leagues he’s also a worthy streamer in good matchups. Not to mention, in his first start of the season he held the Red Sox to one hit in 5.1 innings. He struck out six and walked three. Upside – 3.60 ERA 200 K’s and 15 wins.
As always, great thanks to brooksbaseball.net and fangraphs.com
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The Author
