2014 Fantasy BaseballFantasy BaseballTotal Run Index

2014 Fantasy Baseball: Total Run Index – ADP vs. TRI Right Field

bautista land
Source: Brad White/Getty Images North America

The best position is in the eye of the beholder, but there is no deeper position than right field. According to TRI, there are sixteenright fielders with TRI scores above ten (including one not in the top 20 in ADP). So, that could end up affecting your decision on draft day. In the draft kit, I am introducing something that I call substitution value. Essentially, it shows how much better one player is than the median player at his position. Since there are few dominant players in right field, each player’s relative substitution value is not much.

If it were me, I might wait to take my right fielder for a long while. If I know that the fifth best right fielder is not much better than the 15th best right fielder then why spend the high pick on one. That’s even more pronounced when you have a couple of guys going way too high in the draft. Look at TRI as one of those SAT questions that asks you which one doesn’t belong with the other. You can see it as clear as day when you look at the table. Unlike other positions, their placement in the top five really doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.

POS

ADP

Index

Ryan Braun

1

11.52

+38.1

Yasiel Puig

2

21.57

+27.2

Giancarlo Stanton

3

25.79

+25.5

Jay Bruce

4

30.71

+13.3

Alex Rios

5

35.64

+4.2

Jose Bautista

6

42.43

+33.4

Hunter Pence

7

50.05

+19.0

Wil Myers

8

67.74

+12.4

Jason Heyward

9

78.95

+15.4

Josh Hamilton

10

81.31

+18.3

Jayson Werth

11

94.76

+24.2

Carlos Beltran

12

99.64

+19.5

Michael Cuddyer

13

121.69

+16.5

Shane Victorino

14

123.40

+14.1

Nelson Cruz

15

167.57

+7.2

Torii Hunter

16

182.45

+17.2

Norichika Aoki

17

195.76

+7.1

Will Venable

18

197.50

+10.9

Josh Reddick

19

246.57

+5.4

Kole Calhoun

20

248.45

+2.6

Total Run Index Value Players

Jose Bautista— Toronto Blue Jays

Like I said, I’m not a big fan of drafting guys early, but if I can get Bautista in the fourth round of a twelve team league draft I’m jumping all over it. Out of all of the guys on the board, he has the biggest upside. In four seasons as a full-time player, he is averaging 38 home runs and more than 90 RBIs a season. His last two seasons have been down overall, but that is largely because he missed more than 40 games in both seasons. If he gets those games back he easily surpasses 30 home runs and could approach 100 RBIs and 100 walks again.

Jayson Werth— Washington Nationals

Like Bautista, Werth is extremely productive when healthy. Right now he is being picked as a borderline starting outfielder. Whean healthy, he puts up very sneaky numbers. Last season he threw up a .318/.398/.532 slash line with 25 home runs, 82 RBI, and 84 runs scored. When healthy, as he has been in five out of the last six seasons, he has also had 10 or more stolen bases as well. He’s not a top five right fielder in all likelihood, but he belongs on top of the next group.

Total Run Index Overrated Players

Alex Rios— Texas Rangers

This is what I like to call my “what the hell?” moment. People picking Rios this high must be smoking some serious stuff. Someone actually picked him 23rd overall in an NFBC league. Really? A second round pick for Alex Rios? Let’s ignore the high potential for him to bust like he did in 2011 and 2009. Let’s assume 2013 is a nice benchmark season. He produced a slash line of .278/.324/.432. So, some guy (or girl) just spent a second round pick on that. His ceiling probably came in 2012 when he had an .850 OPS. That’s still not worth a second round pick.

Jay Bruce— Cincinnati Reds

Unlike Rios, this makes some level of sense. He had 74 extra base hits last season and drove in more than 100 runs for the first time in his career. I suppose there is a simplistic reasoning there where you could assume he is on an upward arc. He is entering his age 27 season and players typically are at their peak in that season. Then again, he already has six full seasons in the big leagues. If he were going to be a superstar he would have done it by now. I like Jay Bruce, but there are ten guys that have higher index scores (including one player going undrafted in most NFBC leagues). If someone wants to make him the fourth right fielder picked I would go ahead and let them.

Total Run Index Waiver Wire

Andre Ethier— Los Angeles Dodgers (332.48 ADP, +14.3 TRI)

Yes, watching him slip through the draft makes perfect sense. There are four starting quality outfielders in Los Angeles and only three spots. He feels like he could be the odd man out. We also have to remember that both Carl Crawford and Matt Kemp are injury prone. We also have to remember that Yasiel Puig will be going through the National League for a second time. Pitchers will have a book on him. All that adds up to more than 450 plate appearances for Ethier in all likelihood. I understand letting him slip through the draft, but he would be one of my first adds after the fact.

Michael Morse— San Francisco Giants (317.31 ADP, +6.9 TRI)

Like Either, Morse looks to be a part-time performer and that is why he is slipping through the cracks. Yet, he has some versatility in that he can play left field, right field, or first base. He spent most of last season hurt, so his numbers took a nose dive. 2011 was his peak campaign when he hit 31 home runs and drove in 95 runs. That is probably an anomaly, but if he gets regular playing time he could easily surpass 20 home runs and there is value in that for a bench guy. If you add in the positional versatility you have a nice bench option.

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