Will Josh Reddick Rebound In The Second Half?
With play resuming Friday, fantasy owners have one question… Which players will help my team reach the playoffs and hopefully, a championship? Out of nowhere, Josh Reddick hit 32 home runs and drove in 85 runs in 2012 helping many owners to just that. Those numbers didn’t go unnoticed in 2013 drafts as Reddick was the 45th outfielder selected with his ADP being 174.8 (according to ESPN.com live draft results). Unfortunately, Reddick hasn’t lived up to his 2012 version. Entering the All-Star Break, he only has four home runs, 32 RBI, while batting .218. Many have bailed on Reddick, dropping his ownership percentage to 28.2 in ESPN leagues and 29% in Yahoo leagues. It’s hard to blame them with Reddick ranking 100th among outfielders according to ESPN’s Player Rater.
Reddick’s season got off to a rough start when he injured his right wrist seven games into the 2013 season chasing a foul ball vs. the Astros. Reddick tried to play through the injury for about a month but finally went on the DL May 7th. From the time of the injury until he went onto the DL, Reddick batted only .162/.275/.232 with no home runs (80 plate appearances). He did however steal five bases until being placed on the DL, savaging some fantasy value. Upon his return on May 31st, his numbers have improved dramatically, batting .266/.326/.414 with three home runs and 18 RBI (142 plate appearances).
Strangely enough, 2013 has brought very similar underlying numbers to Reddick’s 2012 season. Actually some are slightly better in 2013. His walk percentage is up to 10.4%, after only being 8.2% last season and his strikeout percentage is down from 22.4% in 2012, to 18.7% thus far in 2013. His line drive percentage is at 24.0%, up from 21.2%. Also, his BABIP remains in the ballpark of his career mark of .273, as it currently sits at .256. However, there is one glaring regression which explains the decrease in Reddick’s overall productivity, his home run/fly ball ratio. In 2012, his HR/FB was 14.0%. 65 games into 2013 it sits at just 5.7%. His ground ball rate is also up 7% to 36.0% while his flyball rate is down almost 10 points to 40.0%.
The rest of 2013 isn’t looking good for Reddick as he is on pace for only 7 home runs and 55 RBI. It doesn’t help that his power decline actually started in the second half of 2012, when he only hit 12 home runs while batting .215. The third strike on Reddick is the fact that his wrist still may require surgery at the end of season. While Reddick was a great story for the 2012 season, it is best to look for other options for the 2013 playoff push.
Written by JJ Kay, a special to TheFantasyFix.com.