Fantasy Basketball

2014-15 Fantasy Basketball: Box Score Browsing – Get Aldrich or Die Tryin’

Cole Aldrich

This isn’t your typical big name headlining the weekly Box Score Browsing, mainly because a guy like Aldrich is typically available in 80% of leagues by the time he starts to his stride, so why not give him some kudos before everyone jumps aboard the Cole train?

The former number 11 pick is on his fourth “team” (I use the term loosely for this year’s Knicks) and he still can’t quite breathe easily about owning a full-time starting gig – despite his only competition being Sam Dalembert’s bigger, slower, fatter brother, along with the ghost of Amar’e Stoudemire.

He made it into some fantasy footnotes for his strong play to end last season, notably averaging 10.7 points, 12.3 rebounds, 1.0 assist, 1.0 steal and 3.0 blocks per game, along with epic 63/89 shooting splits, but who saw this run coming?

Nobody really expected him to be in the Knicks’ rotation, much less to be starting on a 5-28 squad battling to avoid the worst record in the league.

(Holy crap you really need to read that again to truly believe how bad they are. If you’re too lazy to look up a line, here it is again – 5 wins and 28 losses, a 0.152 winning percentage, and I rounded up).

Aldrich hasn’t just wandered onto the floor and racked up six fouls like so many other 7-foot have-nots do when given a chance to start, he’s legitimately turned in rosterable fantasy stats while providing Knicks fans with some semblance of hope this season. Of course they may like the team to bottom out for the sake of their pick, but if Carmelo Anthony shuts it down as he very well may for this year, the young Knicks will play big minutes.

Others have joked this Knicks team runs the Bermuda Triangle offense in that nobody knows what they’re meant to do or where they should be, but Aldrich knows his role and he’s a garbage-man who hustles his way to double-doubles.

He’s only played 155 career games and in those games he’s played at least 20 minutes just 12 times, including five times this season. In those dozen games, he’s produced 11.2 points, 10.0 rebounds, 0.9 steals, 1.8 blocks and amazing 67/83 splits. Aside from the elite percentages which are an eye opener, those are other stats aren’t too dissimilar from Marcin Gortat, a year-in, year-out top 15 fantasy center.

I never thought Aldrich would ever end up in this column, not that it’s a big feather for his cap or anything, you just don’t see a guy bounce around on so many teams to then just start racking up double-doubles – which is a slight warning in itself to not bet the farm on him holding this current value.

Alex Len

For a guy tabbed a potential number one pick leading into the 2012 NBA draft, Alex Len sure made Suns fans wait before delivering on that ‘potential’.

Miles Plumlee came out of nowhere to start for the Suns as a 25 year old NBA sophomore last season; thrown in by the Indiana Pacers for the Luis Scola dump which landed the Suns a first round pick (along with Gerald Green), Plumlee stormed out of the gates while Len was banished to the trainer’s table.

Len has been unshackled by Jeff Hornacek and thrown into the starting line-up despite consistent foul trouble and an injury-riddled past. As is often the case with a change in the line-up, the Suns seemingly had to lose six games before Plumlee was benched to make way for the new Ukraine Train.

Len has emerged as a true rim protector in the Robin Lopez and Roy Hibbert vain, with solid body positioning and an awesome 7’3.5” wingspan that sees him alter far more shots than just the blocks showing up in the box-score.

Coach Hornacek has to be ecstatic that Len’s transition to starter has culminated in wins, as the team has six of eight since he entered the starting five. Len has been a really nice waiver wire find in deeper leagues, with highs of 17 points against Dallas and 11 rebounds with 5 blocks at the Kings. Over his last four games he’s averaged 9.8 points, 8.0 rebounds, 0.8 steals, 2.0 blocks and an incredibly handy 63% clip from the field (17-27 field goals).

If he can stay out of foul trouble and the Suns keep giving him a handful of touches to keep him hungry, you can expect Len to have a strong season the rest of the way – with similar upside (and surprise to some extent) to that fantasy gem of a campaign Larry Sanders put up in 2012-13.

Len will only need 25-28 minutes per night to continue to put these stats up, so you can go and add him now if he’s still available, as he is somehow owned in just 23% of Yahoo leagues.

Kenneth Faried

The Manimal finally managed to string some successful games together (apart from the obligatory 4-4 effort last night, prior to this column going up), and it couldn’t have happened at a better time after what was looking like an ominous downward spiral for a player many expected to take ‘the leap’ in his fourth season.

Faried had absolutely killed it over the three games prior to last night’s dude, racking up 21.0 points, a Rodman-like 19.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 60% shooting from the field and 75% from the line – good for 17th overall during that stretch, per Basketball Monster.

His per-36 stats essentially echo is complete four year NBA career, with very little improvement in any of the main categories apart from free throw percentage. What is concerning (besides the lack of improvement), is the regression in a number of categories. His field goal percentage has declined for three straight seasons since his rookie clip of 59%, but it still sits at a very healthy 51% this year. He averages just 1.8 assists per-36 minutes,

His turnover rate has increased for the third straight year while blocks rate has nearly halved since last year’s 0.9 per game, down to a very disappointing 0.5 per game – that’s the same as the block-averse Kevin Love. Faried has many holes to his game, especially in the fantasy format where he doesn’t do any one thing outstanding apart from hustle – which keeps him on the court for nearly 30 minutes but hasn’t seemed to translate into countable statistics like elite rebounds, steals or blocks.

There’s a lot of criticism to ponder, but on the plus side his free throw percentage is up to 69%, a much easier number to mask than the 64% he was shooting over his first three seasons, and he’s a player who’s name recognition means you’ll have no problem shopping round when the trade deadline approaches and you need little-man stats.

Dwyane Wade

Be honest, did you think Wade would have played as many games as Chris Bosh at the turn of the New Year, or that he’d be averaging MORE points than him as well?

Count me among the majority who doubted the hell out of Wade’s game this season, especially in fantasy circles. He was taken a little high of my liking, with an ADP of 38 in Yahoo and 43 in ESPN leagues, but on a per-game value he’s been the 11th best player in fantasy over the last two weeks.

In the seven games he’s played during that stretch, Wade has been nothing short of awesome. He’s averaged 28.9 points, 4.1 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 1.3 steals, 1.1 threes (there’s the kicker), along with epic shooting percentages of 50% from the field and 80% at the line (on 7.9 attempts per game).

Overall, his 5.5 assists per game are his highest since the pre-LeBron days, while his 23.3 points per game is his best mark since 2010-11. It isn’t all plain sailing, however, as his steals clip and free throw percentage are the lowest of his 12 year career, while his turnovers (3.5) are the highest since 2007-08.

It can’t be overstated what a machine Wade has been in terms of field goal aid to fantasy line-ups; he has seven games with at least 11 field goals while shooting 50% or more. That combo is bested by only one player this season – Anthony Davis with 12 such games – so Wade has been the antithesis of Kobe Bryant (yikes look at that list) in terms of shooting guards who can’t overly shoot.

He’s not going to keep these stats up over the course of a season, but if you’re getting good offers for him and you’re balking due to this massive run, look at both the Heat record and the fact Wade hasn’t played more than 69 games since 2010-11.

He’s already missed eight games so far, there’s likely another 12-15 still to come, so you need to factor that in if you’re riding his play off into the fantasy playoffs’ sunset.

Layups

Manu Ginobili

There are very few players in today’s NBA who play with such fluidity, craftiness and sheer wily skill that Manu does. The 37 year old has been cemented in as the back-up point guard with Tony Parker’s injury riddled recent stretch and Ginobili has flourished running the Spurs yet-to-really-gel offense.

The Spurs have lost seven of nine, but it isn’t Manu’s fault. Common theme here, but prior to last night’s stinker at Memphis, the four games leading into the loss he’d averaged 14.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, 8.0 assists, 1.8 threes and 61/83 splits. It is truly amazing that he’s been doing these stats in under 26 minutes per night – imagine if he was playing 35 minutes a night!

Jonas Jerebko

The other Jonas has been playing swede ball since the Josh Smith waive last week.

With more minutes available, a coach who is openly praising him and basically a skillset that meshes with a squad needing team first players, Jerebko has excelled.

Color me a pessimist, but for the THIRD time in this column, I’ve had to adjust the game stats due to the player dropping a fantasy deuce!

Smith has been gone for the last three games for the Pistons and the team success has not surprisingly been impressive, as they’ve gone 3-0. Over his last six games he’s averaged ‘solid’ but not spectacular stats: 9.0 points, 4.7 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.0 three, just 1.0 turnover and 50/80 splits. They don’t look anything magical by any means, but that’s really not that far off what DeMarre Carroll averaged last year, and he was the 52nd ranked player in 2013-14.

He doesn’t turn it over, he’s not going to force up 20 shots and he’s made a three in six of his last seven games, not bad for a guy who averaged just 5.0 points through his first 22 games.

Gorgui Dieng

If you need defensive stats and good percentages, look no further than Dieng. The guy is so busy and energetic on the court and it translates to his fantasy stats, where he averages 1.1 steals and 1.6 blocks through 30 games (22 starts).

With Nikola Pekovic banged up for the 134th time in his career, Dieng has been a fantasy demon since becoming the starter, repeating the production he showed last season when given minutes down the stretch.

Dieng is on pace to finish the season averaging a double-double in points and rebounds, with at least one steal and 1.5 blocks per night, something only Dwight Howard, Anthony Davis, Andre Drummond, Joakim Noah and Tim Duncan have achieved over the last five seasons.

Over his last nine games, Dieng has averaged 11.2 points, 8.6 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.1 steals and 2.6 blocks per game, which has resulted in him being the 41st ranked player in fantasy for the season.

As always we welcome your feedback, so feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@macetastic) and I’ll do my best to reply to any comments.

Big ups to the amazing Basketball-Reference, for all the links and for de-railing me so often, all in the name of research.

 

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2 Comments

  1. Tyler
    December 31, 2014 at 11:28 pm

    Hey man, happy new year!
    Would you drop alex len or mcdaniels for james johnson, cory joseph, aldrich, mkg, henson, oquinn or dudley?

    12er 9cat
    G- cp3 rubio holiday mcdaniels
    F – kawhi hayward draymond sullinger d.lee
    C – horford brolo j.hill alex len

    Or should i stay put with what i have?

  2. January 1, 2015 at 11:36 am

    cheers – happy new year to you too!

    Out of those guys, I like Len the most to be honest – mainly due to his ‘job security’. The others are either starting due to to injury or they’re just not overly better than Len.

    McDaniels is a stash, at some point PHI will have to start him and when he gets 30mins he’s going to go off.
    Add O’Quinn to your watchlist, if he’s dealt he could end up having a bigger role – Vaughn seems to not want to play him 25-30mins which is a shame.

    That’s a nice team though, you’ll be set once Rubio is healthy.

    Aldrich could be better than Len the rest of the way, but NY is such a mess – they’ll probably bench him for Dalembert or Amare which doesn’t make any sense for a team going NOWHERE…