2014-15 Fantasy Basketball Daily Fix, December 8th
This article is a collaboration between Joshua Lewis and Joshua Kay , the NBA Daily Fantasy experts for the Fantasy Fix.
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In this edition we supply:
- Game Breakdowns of
- Full price-adjusted cash game rankings
- Ranking of all players that we label as good GPP Only plays at each position
- 2061 Words
- Just $1
As an apology for the tardiness of today’s article, here are our top price-adjusted “GPP Only” options at each position
PG: Jeff Teague
SG: Gerald Green
SF: Jeff Green
PF: Marreese Speights
C: Lavoy Allen
Atlanta Hawks @ Indiana Pacers – Start Time 7:00 PM
- Atlanta ranks 27th in rebounding
- Indiana ranks 2nd in rebounding
- Indiana ranks 28th in field goal attempts at the rim
- Indiana ranks 4th in field goal attempts in the paint
- Indiana ranks 4th in fewest opp field goal attempts at the rim
- Indiana ranks 29th in limiting opponent field goal percentage in the paint (44.9%) — only Minnesota is worse
- Atlanta ranks 4th at limiting opponent shot attempts in the paint
SPIN (ATL): The Indiana Pacers are an interesting team defensively. They obviously have Roy Hibbert who is an excellent rim protector, which serves as a great deterrent for teams looking to run a lot of pick and roll plays at the rim. On the other hand, the aforementioned Hibbert has a very specific weakness that the Hawks will be able to capitalize on. Here are the numbers this year for centers against Indiana when Hibbert plays — with a very specific emphasis on shooting numbers
- vs. Sixers: Henry Sims – 23 minutes, 10 points, 4/9 shooting
- vs. Grizzlies: Marc Gasol – 32 minutes, 20 points, 9/16 shooting
- @ Hawks: Al Horford – 27 minutes, 20 points, 9/14 shooting
- vs. Bucks: Larry Sanders – 22 minutes, 0 points, 0/4 shooting
- @ Wizards: Marcin Gortat – 38 minutes, 14 points, 4/10 shooting
- @ Celtics: Kelly Olynyk – 27 minutes, 12 points, 5/7 shooting
- vs. Jazz: Enes Kanter – 25 minutes, 18 points, 7/8 shooting
- @ Heat: Chris Bosh – 33 minutes, 9 points, 3/13 shooting
- vs. Nuggets: Timofey Mozgov – 21 minutes, 3 points, 1/7 shooting
- @ Bulls: Joakim Noah – 31 minutes, 7 points, 3/4 shooting
- vs. Hornets: Al Jefferson – 34 minutes, 28 points, 12/22 shooting
- vs Suns: Mason Plumlee – 27 minutes, 6 points, 2/4 shooting
- @ Trail Blazers: Robin Lopez – 29 minutes, 4 points, 1/5 shooting
- @ Kings: Ryan Hollins – 21 minutes, 8 points, 2/4 shooting
The biggest common denominator here — as you can see with the names that I have in bold — is that centers with a very good mid-range jump shot, light up Hibbert and the Pacers. The only bolded player who didn’t have a great shooting night was Chris Bosh of the Miami Heat. Hibbert likes to stay at the rim and doesn’t particularly enjoy coming out to contest mid-range jump shots. Also, if you can get Hibbert away from the paint athletic centers can beat Hibbert off the dribble because he’s a slow, methodical defender.
Al Horford ( $6,600 ) is a viable GPP candidate for this reason. He can’t be used in cash because he goes through spurts where he just doesn’t rebound ( had just four rebounds in prior performance against Indiana, despite 20 points ). Also, Horford is still risky enough to where he isn’t a guy to get exposure to if you are just playing one or two GPP lineups. The boom or bust Jeff Teague ( $8,000 ) is also a viable GPP option — obviously not in the same lineup as Horford, though.
SPIN (IND): With the news that backup center Ian Mahinmi will be out for six-to-eight weeks, Lavoy Allen ( $3,000 ) will see a huge boost in playing time. In this matchup, it’s even better for Allen because Atlanta is very small up front. Allen is an excellent GPP candidate — especially since GPP players will mostly have Kelly Olynyk, whose price dropped $1,800 since the last game, and is now minimum as well (and still has a tough matchup).
Sadly, the return of David West has rendered Roy Hibbert ( $7,000 ) back to his old DFS useless self. With David West on the court, Hibbert has a defensive rebound opportunity percentage of just 10.5% (West has a 21.3%). With West off the court, Hibbert has a defensive rebound opportunity percentage of 24.5%. Additionally, Hibbert has quietly been on a 30 minute restriction every night since his return from injury. With the restriction being so apparent (he is getting EXACTLY 30 minutes every night since), it will be interesting to see whether Ian Mahinmi’s minutes all just go to Lavoy Allen. Neither West nor Hibbert are trustable. Rodney Stuckey ( $4,600 ) and C.J. Watson ( $3,900 ) are GPP plays, and good ones at that — particularly Watson since he got 36 minutes of run in the Pacers overtime loss to the Kings the last time out.
We are yet to hear of the starting lineups for Indiana, but if Watson is starting, he’s a good cash game value play.
All Games: C.J. Watson – PG (if he starts)
GPP Only: Al Horford – C, Jeff Teague – PG, Rodney Stuckey – SG, Lavoy Allen – C
Boston Celtics @ Washington Wizards – Start Time – 7:00 PM
- The Celtics rank 28th in opponent field goal percentage in the paint (43.6%)
- The Celtics rank 26th in preventing opponent field goal attempts at the rim per 100 possessions
SPIN (WSH): I watched the first half of yesterday’s Washington @ Boston game on League Pass this morning, in order to try and understand why the Wizards were so ineffective, and it’s because they were settling for entirely too many mid range shots. Despite those stats above, Marcin Gortat ( $7,300 ) was just 3-12 shooting. Most of his looks were contested post moves though, which is not his game. Gortat is a rim protector and a very strong option on offense off the pick and roll — and his mid-range shot is pretty decent. Gortat also played just 26 minutes last night, possibly leaving him fresh for tonight’s rematch. There is just no trustable value in cash games at center tonight outside of Gortat and MAYBE Deandre Jordan. Expect a bounce-back as the Wizards try to utilize more pick and rolls to get Gortat better looks inside.
John Wall ( $10,300 ) posted 58.5 fantasy points yesterday against the Celtics on just 5-13 shooting. Obviously his three blocks were somewhat of an anomaly, but he does have some height on Rajon Rondo. Look for Wall to be aggressive tonight once again after the offense sputtered a lot in Boston. Wall averages 47.5 DK points in home games this year. He’s a strong cash and GPP play. Rasual Butler ( $3,600 ) is finally showing he is safe for cash, and should be plugged into your lineup with confidence in all formats. Kris Humphries ( $4,700 ) is another good play in both cash and GPPs.
SPIN (BOS): Kelly Olynyk ( $3,000 ) saw his price absolutely plummet $1,800 since last night. He’s a very viable GPP candidate, though its still a very tough matchup for him. Gamble on him in a few spots. Rajon Rondo ( $8,600 ) is always a fantastic GPP play — he put up 54.8 DK points yesterday against these same Wizards. I’d fade him in cash though. Jeff Green ( $6,600 ) is usable in GPPs, but Draymond Green is a better play for cheaper in cash games.
All Games: John Wall – PG, Kris Humphries – PF, Rasual Butler – SG, Marcin Gortat – C
GPP Only: Kelly Olynyk – C, Rajon Rondo – PG, Jeff Green – SF, Bradley Beal – SG
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Brooklyn Nets – Start Time 7:30 PM
- Cleveland ranks 28th in the NBA in opponent field goal percentage at the rim
- The Nets rank 25th in assists per 100 possessions
- Cleveland ranks 4th in free throw attempts per 100 possessions
SPIN (CLE): Kyrie Irving ( $9,100 ) is too expensive to roster in cash. At best he’s a GPP play, but I wouldn’t even go there unless you pair him with Deron Williams — which is still likely a losing idea since both of them return value so infrequently. It’s a $2 or less lineup idea, nothing more. About eighty-five percent of the time the Cavs are entirely too expensive to roster as a whole. This is one of those times.
SPIN (BKN): Mirza Teletovic ( $5,400 ) is an outstanding value at power forward in cash games if he starts, and a very strong GPP option even if he doesn’t. He will still perform well, but the idea is that we want him to see the court against Kevin Love as much as humanly possible. With Brook Lopez out, Mirza gets more minutes, and essentially becomes Ryan Anderson of the Pelicans (if Mirza doesn’t start tonight). Let’s be clear here by the way, even if he starts, Mason Plumlee ( $3,700 ) is NOT in play. Plumlee isn’t a cash option anyway, and at that price point, Lavoy Allen and Kelly Olynyk are infinitely better options in GPPs.
UPDATE: Joe Johnson has been ruled OUT. This elevates Mirza Teletovic to the top of our Power Forward Rankings, and makes Jarrett Jack usable.
All Games: Mirza Teletovic – PF ( if he starts )
GPP Only: Mirza ( if he doesnt start )
Denver Nuggets @ Toronto Raptors – Start Time 7:30 PM
- Toronto ranks 26th in the NBA in defensive rebounds per 100 possessions
- Toronto ranks 29th in the NBA in opponent mid-range field goal percentage (43.6%)
SPIN (DEN): Wilson Chandler ( $6,000 ) is coming off an incredible performance against the Atlanta Hawks in which he put up 45 Draft Kings points. He’ll see substantial run again (especially if Kenneth Faried is out) — as will Darrell Arthur ( $3,000 ). Chandler is in play for cash and GPPs, while Arthur is a GPP candidate. Everyone else (including Ty Lawson ) is too expensive.
SPIN (TOR): Tonight feels a lot like “Jonas Valanciunas” night. He’s only $5,600 and the Nuggets are horrendous on the inside, not to mention Kyle Lowry ( $10,100 ) draws the very tough defense of Ty Lawson. Jonas is a very strong GPP option, He’s very tough to trust in cash, but center tonight is pretty weak. I’d consider him as probably my third or fourth ranked center in cash.
Greivis Vasquez ( $5,100 ) continues to see big minutes, but is significantly less interesting at his new price point. He’s no longer a must play, and is someone I will only have exposure to in GPPs in case Lowry defers tonight due to the “Ty Lawson” effect.
All Games: Wilson Chandler – SF
GPP Only: Greivis Vasquez – PG, Jonas Valenciunas – C, Ty Lawson – PG, Kyle Lowry – $10,100, Darrell Arthur – PF,
Golden State Warriors @ Minnesota Timberwolves – Start Time 8:00 PM
- Golden State ranks 6th in defensive efficiency
- Minnesota ranks 27th in defensive efficiency
- Golden State ranks 3rd in offensive efficiency
- Minnesota ranks 26th in defensive efficiency
- Minnesota ranks 25th in 3-point FG% defense
SPIN (GS): All Golden State starters are extremely tough to trust in this game. Minutes may be a huge problem for them. I can really only trust Draymond Green ( $6,200 ) in cash games. Marreese Speights ( $4,700 ) is a fantastic GPP target. Klay Thompson ( $7,100 ) has to be in play simply because he’s cheap enough to where he doesnt need 35 minutes to put up a great score against a terrible Wolves team. He’s okay for cash too, but know that you will need to make up value elsewhere potentially ( in case it’s a huge blowout and he doesn’t see enough run)
SPIN (MIN): The only player that is cash usable is Zach Lavine ( $4,700 ) and he’s a very good one at that. With Mo Williams out, LaVine will see a ton of minutes even if this game becomes a blowout. He’s the top value PG tonight. A sneaky small forward play for GPPs is Jeff Adrien ( $3,000 ). He didnt get run against San Antonio because of the size issues there, but Speights plays backup center for the Wolves and Adrien is tall enough to be a good matchup for him. Adrien could end up seeing a lot of run if it becomes a blowout as well. He’s a great GPP target especially if Shabazz Muhammad is out.
All Games: Klay Thompson – SG, Draymond Green -SF, Zach Lavine – PG
GPP Only: Jeff Adrien – SF, Shabazz Muhammad – SF, Marreese Speights – PF
Consensus Price-Adjusted Cash Game Rankings:
- Zach Lavine
- John Wall
- Chris Paul
- Trey Burke
- Klay Thompson
- Rasual Butler
- Eric Bledsoe
- Rudy Gay
- Draymond Green
- Wilson Chandler
- Mirza Teletovic
- Derrick Favors
- Kris Humphries
- Blake Griffin
- Deandre Jordan
- Marcin Gortat
- Jonas Valanciunas
GPP Specific Rankings
(These include players who are ONLY good considerations in GPPs — players that are usable in all games will not be listed here)
- Jeff Teague
- Goran Dragic
- Jarrett Jack
- Rajon Rondo
- Greivis Vasquez
- Gerald Green
- Bradley Beal
- Rodney Stuckey
- Jeff Green
- Jeff Adrien
- Shabazz Muhammad
- Harrison Barnes
- Marreese Speights
- Jason Thompson
- Tristan Thompson
- Darrell Arthur
- Lavoy Allen
- Al Horford
- Kelly Olynyk