Fantasy BasketballFront OfficeJosh Kay

2014-15 Fantasy Basketball Daily Fix, December 9th

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This article is a collaboration between Joshua Lewis and Joshua Kay , the NBA Daily Fantasy experts for the Fantasy Fix.

Here at the Fix, we are dedicated to providing the most in depth coverage that you can find on the internet when it comes to Daily Fantasy Sports. Our  format, which you can view here provides our readers with relevant stats for each game, featuring a full breakdown of who we like from each team as well as how we expect that game to go. We culminate it with a summary of which players we like in certain game modes, so that there is no confusion in translation. For just $1, you will get access to this article for a full day, including all of our important injury updates ( since NBA features so much time sensitive information that can change everything about a slate that we previously knew before). You can view our recommended NBA Beat Reporter Follow List here:

In addition:

Price-Adjusted Cash Game Rankings for each position, all for just $1 !

3000+ words!

 

Game Breakdowns:

Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers – Start Time 7:00 PM

Notable stats

  • Toronto is 2nd in offensive efficiency
  • Cleveland is 4th in offensive efficiency
  • Both teams are middle of the pack in most important statistical categories

SPIN ( TOR ):  These two teams are very evenly matched,  but given Cleveland is coming off an easy win against Brooklyn, while Toronto needed overtime to take care of Denver, the advantage goes to the home team here.  Toronto should stay close all game, but I’m definitely expecting a Cleveland win.  Kyle Lowry ( $10,2000 ) has been terrific since DeMar DeRozan went down, but he’s priced out of use in cash games, and likely GPPs as well.  He does draw a great matchup with defensive liability Kyrie Irving, and he should have a great game, but he likely won’t pay off his hefty price tag.  Amir Johnson ( $5,200 ) has been up and down, mostly down, but he’ll have another opportunity to torch Kevin Love on the offensive end.  He’s too inconsistent for cash game use, but he’s a viable GPP play, especially on a day where no good value plays have surfaced.  Jonas Valanciunas’s ( $5,600 ) value is almost directly tied to his minutes.  When he plays big minutes, he usually ends up posting a solid score.  Unfortunately, he’s averaging 23.3 minutes across 2 games against Cleveland this year, so there’s no reason to think he’ll play big minutes tonight.  He could though, and he’s reserved for GPP use only.  Finally, Lou Williams ( $5,000 ) will likely draw Dion Waiters when he’s on with the second unit.  Dwayne Casey rides the hot hand, so if Lou gets hot, he’ll get extra run and could end up being a very nice GPP play.

SPIN ( CLE ):  It’s the same old story with Cleveland.  They have three extremely talented players that almost never post dfs scores worthy of their price tags.  On a day where I’m finding it difficult to find many cheaper plays to roster, dedicating the necessary cap space to roster Lebron James ( $11,700 ), Kyrie Irving ( $9,300 ), and Kevin Love ( $9,000 ) is not a recommended play today.  Anderson Varejao ( $5,200 ) has a nice matchup with a Raptors team is near the bottom of the league in defending opposing centers.  I wouldn’t go out of my way to roster him due to his limited minutes and production, but he’ll get a bump in this matchup, and is a viable play given the difficulty players are going to have creating a balanced roster today.  Finally, feel free to take a shot on Dion Waiters ( $3,600 ) in a GPP, but don’t go too crazy.  The likelihood of Waiters posting two good games in a row seems very unlikely, but since there doesn’t seem to be any rhyme or reason to when he goes off, I’d take a shot on him if I had more than five lineups in a GPP.

Summary:

All Games – Anderson Varejao – C

GPP Only – Amir Johnson – PF, Jonas Valanciunas — C, Lou Williams – SG, Dion Waiters – SG

Portland Trail Blazers @ Detroit Pistons – Start Time 7:30 PM

Notable stats

  • Detroit is 29th in offensive efficiency ahead of only Philadelphia
  • Detroit attempts the 4th most field goals at the rim while having the worst field goal percentage in the league
  • Detroit attempts the 7th most field goals in the paint while having the worst field goal percentage in the league
  • Portland allows the 4th lowest field goal percentage at the rim
  • Detroit allows the 3rd lowest field goal percentage on mid-range shots

SPIN ( POR ):  Portland should win this game fairly easily.  This is a bad matchup for an already terrible Detroit team.  Detroit will likely keep it close enough that starers’ minutes are not impacted, but Portland’s pricing is not very enticing tonight.  Damian Lillard ( $8,800 ) and LaMarcus Aldridge ( $9,900 ) should have their standard solid games, but pricing keeps them out of play in cash games.  Don’t look for a monster game from Aldridge tonight.  He takes a lot of mid-range jumpers, and Detroit defends those shots very well.  Portland is a well-balanced team that plays great as a unit, but like other balanced teams, it usually takes an injury to one of the starters to make the other players usable from a DFS standpoint unless they are mispriced.

SPIN ( DET ):  Detroit is better than only the Sixers in terms of offensive efficiency, and the notable stats suggest that things are not going to go well for them today.  They attempt most of their shots in the paint and at the rim, but they’re league worst in both categories, and are facing a Portland team that defends those types of shots well.  Pistons are not recommended for cash game use.  Josh Smith ( $7,900 ) is in play in GPPs due to his ability to fill up the stat sheet and post a big game despite the team as a whole playing poorly.  He doesn’t draw a very good matchup tonight, and it’s much more likely he doesn’t post a score that justifies his price tag.  If I had five lineups, I might use him in one, but not to the detriment of the rest of the lineup.  Andre Drummond ( $8,100 ) has big upside in some matchups, but this isn’t one of them.  I see no reason to target him at all.  Finally, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ( $4,800 ) is in play due to his cheap price tag and ability to provide cap relief, but he’s very inconsistent and doesn’t have a good matchup.  I would only target him in GPPs.

Summary: 

All Games – None

GPP Only – LaMarcus Aldridge – PF, Damian Lillard – PG, Josh Smith – SF, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – SG

Dallas Mavericks @ Memphis Grizzlies – Start Time 8:00 PM

Notable stats

  • Memphis is 26th in pace
  • Memphis is 5th in defensive efficiency
  • Dallas is 1st in offensive efficiency
  • Memphis allows the 3rd lowest field goal percentage in the paint
  • Dallas allows the 6th lowest field goal percentage in the paint
  • Dallas allows the highest 3 point field goal percentage in the league

SPIN ( DAL ):  Generally, when you see a game with Memphis, it’s best just to avoid it for daily fantasy.  They’re a very good defensive team, and they play at a slow pace.  That’s a very bad combination for the opposing team.  Due to the bad matchup across the board, Mavericks are not recommended for cash game use.  Dirk Nowitzki ( $6,400 ) is an interesting GPP play at his price.  Memphis is ranked 27th against opposing power forwards, likely because of how well they defend the other positions.  Somebody has to score against them, and tonight it could very well be Dirk.  He’s too inconsistent, even at this price, for cash game consideration, but he has high upside in a GPP.  He’ll likely see low ownership given the matchup with Memphis and the fact that he hasn’t produced well at a reduced price over the past two games.

SPIN ( MEM ):  Memphis is usually not recommended for cash game use.  They’re a well-balanced team that plays at a slow pace.  They’re expensive, and they generally aren’t a good investment from a salary perspective.  Mike Conley ( $7,400 ) has the best matchup, but his production relative to his price is too inconsistent for cash game use.  I do think he’ll do well, as the Mavericks are terrible at defending guards, but he’s a tough sell in cash game lineups at this price.  Marc Gasol ( $8,600 ) and Zach Randolph ( $7,200 ) can be ignored in cash games due to their difficult matchup.  Dallas is terrific at defending the paint, and Tyson Chandler isn’t someone I want to mess with.  Randolph is a high upside guy, however, and he can be targeted in GPPs.  Courtney Lee ( $4,000 ) is a solid value option that can be targeted in all game types.  The way you beat Dallas is outside shooting, and that’s what Lee is good at.  Dallas defends the paint extremely well, but their perimeter defense is a joke.  They’re allowing the highest 3 point field goal percentage in the league, so this matchup sets up very nicely for Lee.  He’s very cheap, and on a day that’s not offering much in the way of value plays, he’s a great play.

Summary:

All Games – Courtney Lee – SG

GPP Only – Dirk Nowitzki – PF, Zach Randolph – PF, Mike Conley – PG

Milwaukee Bucks @ Oklahoma City Thunder – Start Time 8:00 PM

Notable stats

  •  Oklahoma City ranks 2nd in stingiest opponent field goal percentage in the paint (32.8%)
  • The Thunder rank 24th in field goal percentage at the rim
  • The Thunder are 26th in assist/turnover ratio (just 1.22)
  • Milwaukee ranks 2nd in steals per 100 possessions
  • The Thunder rank 26th in ball protection, with 16.6 turnovers per 100 possessions

SPIN ( MIL ): The Thunder are double digit favorites in a game that could see Jason Kidd do some lineup tinkering. Unfortunately, we don’t really know what that will be.  Oklahoma City is a good defensive team, and it’s just very difficult to like any Bucks players tonight.  Brandon Knight ( $6,800 ) has seen a price drop, but he’ll have his hands full with Russell Westbrook, and isn’t a recommended target.  Jabari Parker ( $5,000 ) may be a popular play due to price, but he’s a safe fade given how well Oklahoma City defends the paint.  Serge Ibaka has a height advantage, and it’s very difficult to imagine Parker having a good game tonight.  Larry Sanders ( $4,800 ) is a sneaky GPP play as he should have no trouble with Steven Adams tonight.  Adams is an awful defender, but given the low minutes and the absurd foul rate, Sanders shouldn’t be anywhere near your cash game lineups.  Other Bucks are very safe to avoid tonight.

SPIN ( OKC ):  When Oklahoma City is heavily favored, they’re not going to be recommended cash game targets very much.  Tonight is no different.  Kevin Durant ( $10,600 ) is still on a minutes limit, so he’s not worth paying for.  Russell Westbrook ( $10,400 ) is still priced like Durant is inactive, so he’s not an attractive target either.  Serge Ibaka ( $7,100 ) relies too heavily on defensive stats for his fantasy production when both Durant and Westbrook are active, and, given his price, he’s not a recommended play outside of GPPs.  He can still post a big score due to rebounding and his ability to block shots.  Jeremy Lamb ( $3,800 ) is a solid GPP target off the bench.  He can put up points in a hurry, and may see extended run if this game gets out of hand.

Summary:

All Games – None

GPP Only – Larry Sanders – C, Serge Ibaka – PF, Jeremy Lamb – SG

New York Knicks @ New Orleans Pelicans – Start Time 8:00 PM

Notable stats

  • The Pelicans are 2nd in blocks per game
  • The Knicks rank 29th in field goal attempts at the rim per game, and 29th in field goal attempts in the paint per game
  • The Knicks average the fewest “blocks against them” per game at 3.3
  • The Knicks are 30th in defensive rebound percentage
  • The Knicks are 2nd in opponent field goal percentage allowed at the rim
  • The Pelicans rank 1st in the NBA in not getting their best player enough shots per game(okay I made that one up, but seriously, Brow is under-utilized)

SPIN ( NY ): The Knicks aren’t a particularly fun team to target for DFS purposes.  They’re a bad team, ranking in the bottom third of the league in offensive efficiency.  Amar’e Stoudemire ( $6,100 ) has been a steady source of 30 fantasy points on an almost nightly basis, but his matchup tonight is terrible.  I don’t have much interesting in rostering him against Anthony Davis.  Carmelo Anthony ( $10,000 ) should have a field day.  The Pelicans have been getting torched by talented small forwards.  New Orleans has no one that can match up with him, and the question with Anthony is really just whether or not he’s worth his price tag.  He’ll likely settle in somewhere in the mid to high 40s in fantasy points, which he’ll have a solid game that won’t quite make him a worthwhile daily fantasy play.  However, given the matchup and his ability to take over games, he’s absolutely in play in GPPs given he’s one of the few players in the league that’s capable of posting a monster game.  Iman Shumpert ( $3,700 ) is cheap, but he also does very little on the court and hasn’t played 30 minutes since November 24.  Courtney Lee is a better value option at the SG position.

SPIN ( NO ): Anthony Davis ( $11,600 ) is a terrific player, but he’s criminally underutilized in New Orleans.  Until he starts consistently seeing 20 shot attempts per game, he’ll be nothing more than a GPP play at this price.  He’s always going to have good games, but when you pay this price, you need a great one.  35-40 fantasy points is great for some players, but it’s more or less a disaster with Davis.  Tyreke Evans ( $7,300 ) does most of his damage by driving to the basket, and facing a Knicks team that is very good at limited opponent field goal percentage at the rim, he likely doesn’t have the same upside he would have against other teams.  Given his inconsistent performances and price, he’s a safe fade tonight.  Jrue Holiday ( $8,000 ) draws a nice matchup with defensive turnstile Jose Calderon, but he’s no more than a GPP play tonight.  He’s too inconsistent and has too low of a floor for cash game use.

Summary:

All Games – None

GPP Only – Carmelo Anthony – SF, Anthony Davis – PF, Jrue Holiday – PG

Miami Heat @ Phoenix Suns – Start Time 9:00 PM

Notable stats

  • Miami ranks 28th in defensive rebounds per 100 possessions
  • Miami ranks 29th in offensive rebound per 100 possessions
  • Miami is bad at rebounding
  • Miami ranks 5th in effective field goal percentage
  • Phoenix ranks 7th in effective field goal percentage
  • Phoenix ranks 4th in limiting opponent field goal attempts in the paint
  • Miami ranks 30th in field goal attempts in the paint
  • Phoenix ranks 5th in pace
  • Miami ranks 30th in pace

SPIN (MIA): The Heat will be playing up in pace against a Suns team coming off an emotionally draining loss to the Clippers in overtime. With many people being on Eric Bledsoe and banking on a repeat, I’ll have my hands full of Dwayne Wade ( $7,800 ) who is as reliable as they come, and will be playing up in pace against a Phoenix team that doesn’t protect the rim, but can do some things nicely in the paint. That bodes well for Wade’s slashing abilities. Up in pace, Luol Deng ( $5,300 ) can be compared somewhat to what Paul Pierce has done against the Celtics in his last two games (albeit those were revenge games). Deng is a guy who doesn’t normally see enough run, but at $5,300 he’s a very good GPP play in an up-tempo affair. Chris Bosh ( $8,300 ) should also be very good.

SPIN (PHX): The Suns’ Eric Bledsoe ( $8,200 ) will have a ton of chasers, coming off an incredibly impressive performance against the Clippers. Bledsoe gave everything he had yesterday, and I would be surprised to see him put up another incredible game. He’s the perfect GPP ownership-based fade. With everyone likely on Bledsoe, Goran Dragic ( $7,900 ) becomes intriguing in GPPs, as does Gerald Green ( $4,700 ). 

Summary: 

All Games; Dwayne Wade – SG, Chris Bosh – C, Eric Bledsoe – SG, Luol Deng – SF

GPP Only: Goran Dragic – PG, Gerald Green – SG, Mario Chalmers – PG

San Antonio Spurs @ Utah Jazz – Start Time 9:00 PM

Notable stats

  • The Spurs rank 5th in 3-point field goal percentage
  • Utah ranks 25th in 3-point field goal defense
  • The Spurs rank 27th in fouls drawn per game
  • The Spurs rank 3rd in assist percentage
  • The Spurs rank 1st in defensive rebound percentage

SPIN ( SA ):  Tony Parker is out tonight, leaving Cory Joseph ( $4,700 ) to once again man the point for San Antonio.  He’s been a very serviceable fill in, and should flirt with 30 fantasy points again tonight.  He draws a nice matchup with a Jazz team that is atrocious defensively, and given how tonight is shaping up, he’s a value play that you probably shouldn’t pass up on.  The Spurs are nine point favorites in a projected low-scoring game, so targeting other players isn’t a great option.  In the event that the Jazz keep this game close, or the game is unexpectedly high scoring, both Tim Duncan ( $8,500 ) and Kawhi Leonard ( $7,700 ) make solid GPP plays.  They both benefit from the absence of Tony Parker.  Kawhi sees over a 10 point increase in usage with Parker off the court as compared to on, and if San Antonio needs their starters to play a full complement of minutes, these are the two guys that will likely be doing all of the work.  Manu Ginobili ( $5,000 ) is a high-risk GPP play.  He should dominate the Jazz second unit, and is capable of topping 30 fantasy points in limited minutes on the court.  If the game stays close, he’ll be asked to do more than usual.

SPIN ( UTA ): The Jazz are a bad team that has the misfortunate of facing the Spurs tonight.  I honestly can’t recommend anyone from Utah tonight for cash games.  The return of Alec Burks ( $5,900 ) diminishes the fantasy value of everyone else on the court, especially Trey Burke ( $5,300 ).  The prudent move is to simply ignore Jazz players tonight.  There are much better plays elsewhere.

Summary:

All Games – Cory Joseph – PG,

GPP Only – Tim Duncan – PF, Kawhi Leonard – SF, Manu Ginobili – SG

 

Sacramento Kings @ Los Angeles Lakers – Start Time 10:30 PM

Notable stats

  • The Kings rank 28th in 3-point field goal percentage
  • The Kings rank 30th in 3-pointers made per 100 possessions
  • The Lakers rank 29th in 3-point field goal defense

SPIN (SAC): The Kings are horrible at exploiting the Lakers biggest weakness, which bodes well for the Lakers chances of winning this game. Ben McLemore ( $5,300 ) is the Kings best perimeter shooter, but he has an absolutely vile price tag. Rudy Gay ( $7,900 ) should go absolutely bananas in this matchup, and is the safest play on the board today at any position.Darren Collison ( $6,900 ) is one of the safer point guards on the board tonight, and Ramon Sessions ( $3,500 ) is a decent “what the heck” GPP punt on a day with absolutely no cheap value.

SPIN (LAL): The bench role’s for Jeremy Lin and Carlos Boozer are really causing problems for their #1 unit offensively, and it becomes incredibly difficult to recommend anyone on the Lakers except Kobe Bryant ( $9,400 ) who is only a GPP play, and probably not a smart play at all even the presence of Wade at a much cheaper price. I’m fading this team completely in cash games.

Summary:

All Games: Rudy Gay – SF, Darren Collison – PG

GPP Only: Ramon Sessions – PG, Kobe Bryant – SG

Price-Adjusted Cash Game Rankings:

 

Point Guard:

  1. Cory Joseph
  2. Darren Collison
  3. Mike Conley
  4. Kyle Lowry

Shooting Guard:

  1. Dwayne Wade
  2. Courtney Lee
  3. Eric Bledsoe
  4. OJ Mayo

Small Forward:

  1. Rudy Gay
  2. Luol Deng

Power Forward:

  1. Jason Thompson
  2. Ed Davis
  3. Tristan Thompson
  4. Amir Johnson

Center:

  1. Chris Bosh
  2. Larry Sanders
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