Fantasy BasketballFront OfficeJosh Kay

2014 Fantasy Basketball Daily Fix, November 14th

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Game Breakdowns:

Today we at The Fix bring you a very special NBA Daily Fix edition featuring a full breakdown of every game on tonight’s 10-game slate. Let us know in the comments section or on Twitter @TheFantasyFix and @StopBuntingPlz, how you like this alternate format. Don’t forget, if you are a new user to Draft Kings please use this link to sign up!

Denver Nuggets @ Indiana Pacers: Start Time – 7 PM

Notable stats:

  • Denver and Indiana are 28th and 29th respectively in Field goal percentage (FG%)
  • Indiana ranks 3rd in rebounds per game, Denver 7th
  • Denver attempts the 4th most shots in the restricted-area (at the rim), and Indiana ranks 1st in Opp FG% at the rim (53.6)

SPIN (DEN): In the Nuggets embarrassing 130-113 loss to the Portland Trail Blazers on Wednesday, Ty Lawson ( $7,400, PG ) was the only Nugget to play 30 minutes — he played 41. This is a stern reminder that as Nuggets Head Coach Brian Shaw has said before, that he isn’t going to hesitate to yank his starters if they are playing poorly. At this point Lawson is the only Nugget remotely close to being a cash game option. He has a good matchup against Donald Sloan, who is a turnstyle defensively. The only other remotely viable Nugget in this game is J.J. Hickson ( $3,500, C ), whom I actually like quite a bit as a value play in GPPs. He’s put up great numbers while he’s been on the court. He’s still on a bit of a minutes restriction, but he’s averaging 27.6 DK points in two games despite averaging 18 minutes per game.

SPIN (IND): CJ Miles ( $3,000, SF ) is probable to return to the lineup. As of this write-up, Miles’s role (bench or starting) has not been divulged as of yet, so make sure to follow @ScottAgness for an update on his situation. If Miles starts, he’s a viable punt option but he’s not an across the board play — because he quite frankly has been pretty bad this year. Roy Hibbert ( $7,300, C ) is really the true Pacer I am most interested in. I’m expecting pretty big things from him tonight.

Summary:

Cash Games + GPP: Roy Hibbert – C, Ty Lawson – PG

GPP Only: CJ Miles – SF, J.J. Hickson – C

Milwaukee Bucks @ Orlando Magic: Start Time – 7 PM

Notable stats:

  • Milwaukee ranks 3rd in Defensive Efficiency.
  • Milwaukee has committed the 4th most turnovers per 100 possessions, Orlando the 6th most.
  • Milwaukee attempts the 3rd FEWEST free throws per 100 possessions, Orlando attempts 4th fewest

SPIN: (MIL): Due to Head Coach Jason Kidd‘s erratic rotations, the Bucks aren’t really that interesting except in GPPs. Khris Middleton ( $3,000, SF ) could potentially return tonight for the Bucks, but I have absolutely zero interest in him unless it is revealed that he is going to start — which he most likely won’t.

SPIN: (ORL): The Magic have a couple of interesting players tonight. We begin with Tobias Harris ( $6,800, SF ). Harris is always a fabulous GPP play, and this time the matchup suits him pretty darn well. His erratic game log and reliance on fast-break points rarely makes him a cash game play for me, but the fact that he has recorded at least a block or a steal in all but one game this season (last time out vs. Knicks), says a lot about his upside. Nikola Vucevic ( $8,100, C) is a decent contrarian GPP play, but there is a much better play at this price point that I will get to in the next game we discuss. Finally, Victor Oladipo ( $5,500, SG ) has been cleared by doctors to play, and is questionable for tonight’s game. If he plays, I am completely uninterested in the other Magic players unless it’s in a stack. His debut could end up being a boon for the rest of the team (they all play excellent as a unit), or “Dipo” could come in and commit his usual countless turnovers against a strong Bucks defense. It’s a situation I’m probably avoiding.

Summary: 

Cash Games: None

GPP Only: Victor Oladipo – SG (if he plays), Tobias Harris – SF (much better if Dipo is out), Nikola Vucevic – C

Miami Heat @ Atlanta Hawks: Start Time – 7:30 PM

Notable stats:

  • With Dwayne Wade off the court, Chris Bosh ( $8,300, C ) has a usage rate of 33.3%
  • Atlanta has the 2nd worst Opp FG% allowed in the restricted area (66.1%)

SPIN: (ATL): DeMarre Carroll is once again out tonight for the Hawks. Starting in his place at the “3” is Thabo Sefalosha ( $3,500, SG ) and despite the gig, he isn’t in play for me simply because he just doesn’t do enough on the court. Although it feels like somewhat of an unnecessary risk, Mike Scott ( $3,000, PF ) should play big minutes off the bench and can fill it up in a hurry (especially from 3-pt range). There are safer value options on the slate tonight, but with Carroll out, Scott has the potential to win you a GPP if he sees 25 minutes. Paul Millsap ( $8,200, PF ) put up a monster performance on Wednesday in a revenge game against his former club the Utah Jazz. While I don’t really enjoy chasing big performances, Millsap’s rebounding rate jumps 12 percentage points with Carroll off the court. He’s a very strong option once again tonight against a Miami team 5th WORST in defensive rebounds per 100 possessions. 

SPIN: (MIA): Chris Bosh ( $8,300, C) is easily the best center on the board tonight. His usage rate skyrockets with Wade out. Not only is Bosh the best across the board play in the game tonight, but he’s also the only Heat player I have any sort of confidence in. There’s so many good guard plays tonight, that using Norris Cole ( $3,700 ) or Mario Chalmers ( $4,400 ) seems unnecessary in anything but GPPs because their role’s are hard to predict if they are on the court at the same time. I don’t hate Luol Deng ( $5,500, SF) as an option either.

Summary:

Cash Games + GPP: Chris Bosh – C, Paul Millsap – PF

GPP Only: Luol Deng – SF, Mike Scott – PF

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics: Start Time – 7:30 PM

Notable stats:

  • Cleveland has the 2nd WORST Opp FG% allowed on Above the Break 3 pointers (non-corner 3’s), Boston is 3rd worst in the same stat.
  • Boston attempts the third most 3-pointers in the NBA at 26.7 per game, but have a league worst 30.1 FG% on them.
  • Cleveland is 5th WORST in the NBA in defensive rebounding. Boston is 10th best in offensive rebounding

SPIN: (CLE): Lebron James ( $10,700, SF ) will see one of the juiciest matchups he will see all year tonight. He will draw the completely uninspiring defense of Jeff Green. As for the rest of the Cleveland starters, Kevin Love ( $8,900, PF ) really isn’t usable at this point in time since he’s being used very poorly — in a spot up shooting role, and Kyrie Irving ( $7,700, PG ) really sees his usage take a dip with Dion Waiters ( $3,600, SG ) on the court. Waiters is “probable” tonight. Waiters himself is intriguing at his low price point, but only in GPPs. Lastly, I think Kyrie will be over-owned, and there are much better plays at his price at the position.

SPIN: (BOS): Rajon Rondo ( $8,600, PG) is easily the Top PG option of the night. Rondo loves the big game almost as much as Kyrie loves to play zero defense. Rondo is a triple double threat in the first-half tonight. In an up-tempo game, I really like Kelly Olynyk ( $5,800, C ) as a GPP option at center for his modest price and relative upside if he can stay out of foul trouble (he won’t). He’s an unnecessary gamble tonight, but if you’re wondering where the production for Boston goes, some of it will go to him. Jared Sullinger ( $7,000, PF) is more expensive than I would like for a guy that does not record steals or blocks. He has exactly one steal and zero blocks total, in his last four games — which ultimately caps his upside. Sullinger will produce tonight, but most of the performances in his range of outcomes tonight barely pay off his price tag.

Summary:

Cash Games + GPPs: Lebron James – SF, Rajon Rondo – PG

GPP Only: Jared Sullinger – PF, Kelly Olynyk – C ( only recommended in a Celtics stack ), Dion Waiters – SG

Utah Jazz @ New York Knicks: Start Time – 7:30 PM

 

Notable stats:

  • The Jazz are 28th in pace and the Knicks are 30th

SPIN:

Passing on this game feels like a very smart choice, both in GPPs and Cash games.

Philadelphia 76ers @ Houston Rockets: Start Time – 8:00 PM

Notable stats:

  • The Houston Rockets are 2nd best in defensive efficiency. The Sixers are dead last in offensive efficiency

SPIN: (PHI): Well that was interesting… Michael Carter-Williams ( $6,800, PG ) who was reportedly on a minutes limit last night, ended up playing the most minutes of any Sixer. He took twice as many shots as any other Sixer, led the team in free throw attempts, rebounds, and assists. You won’t always get the most efficient play from MCW, but you will get incredible usage. He’s close to a must play tonight across the board. The rest of the Sixers are all unappealing. I don’t hate the idea of pairing MCW with Nerlens Noel ( $5,600, PF ) but there are better plays tonight.

SPIN: (HOU): Before Dwayne Wade was ruled out, a very legitimate case could be made for Dwight Howard ( $8,600 ) being the #1 play at the position. Now, with the obvious blowout impending, it’s tough to really have any sort of confidence in Howard’s minutes. We do know while he is on the court he will produce though, which still makes him the #2 center on the board for me tonight. Terrence Jones and Patrick Beverley are once again out, so that means Isaiah Canaan ( $4,200, PG ) draws the start once again. He is by no means a “trap” per-se, as he is just now fairly priced, so don’t go crazy with your exposure. I’ll probably very little. James Harden ( $10,300, SG ) scores, and he does it in a hurry. If “Beard’ plays a full compliment of minutes, he could go for 75 fantasy points. If he loses PT due to the blowout, he’s not going to be worth the price, since Lebron is $10,700 at a weaker fantasy position. Finally, Donatas Motiejunas ( $4,000, SF ) is a foul-prone trap waiting to happen, as everyone will be chasing his previous game. Can he make value, of course he can. Will I be using him anywhere? No.

Summary:

Cash Games + GPP: Dwight Howard – C, Michael Carter-Williams – PG, James Harden – SG, Isaiah Canaan – PG,

GPP Only: Nerlens Noel – PF, Jason Terry – SG, Kostas Papanikolau – SF

Minnesota Timberwolves @ New Orleans Pelicans: Start Time – 8:00 PM

Tragedy has struck today, as the mother of Thaddeus Young has passed away. We at the Fix offer our deepest condolences to Thad, his friends and his family.

********

SPIN: (MIN): Obviously with the tragedy that Thaddeus has experienced, he will not be playing tonight of course. As of right now nothing is confirmed, but it’s quite reasonable to expect Gorgui Dieng ( $4,200, C ) to start alongside Nikola Pekovic ( $6,300, C ) as the Wolves try to match up against the Pelicans elite size. Dieng would be an incredible value play if he does indeed start or at least receive 28 minutes (which he most likely will). If Anthony Bennett ( $3,000, PF ) starts, he instantly becomes a very strong option as well. He’s actually been quite good since having lost weight and getting his vision fixed. I don’t consider anyone else in this game for Minnesota viable in cash games.

SPIN: (NO): Seriously, who isn’t aware of how great a play Anthony Davis ( $11,200, PF ) is on a nightly basis. Don’t force him into your lineups across the board, because their are other really elite options for much cheaper prices, but if you don’t have “Brow” in any lineups, you will be sorry. Ryan Anderson ( $5,500, PF ) is a very strong option in GPPs due to his ridiculous upside and high usage rate off the bench.

Summary:

Cash Games + GPPs: Anthony Davis – PF, Anthony Bennett – PF (only if he starts), Gorgui Dieng – C (only if he starts)

GPP Only: Ryan Anderson – PF, Kevin Martin – SG, Zach LaVine – PG

Detroit Pistons @ Oklahoma City Thunder: Start Time – 8:00 PM

Notable stats:

  • Brandon Jennings has a usage rate of 30.6% with Andre Drummond off the floor

SPIN (DET): Everyone will be chasing Brandon Jennings ( $6,800, PG ) and his big game last time out. I won’t be one of them, mostly because of how inconsistent Jennings can be. I did have Jennings in over half my lineups on Wednesday night, because it felt right — and it feels like he’ll be good again tonight but at the same price as Michael Carter-Williams, I’d rather use MCW. Greg Monroe ( $7,300, PF ) is basically a taller more consistent version of Jared Sullinger for DFS purposes. Both are extremely good at rebounding, but neither adds really any defensive value like steals or blocked shots. I like Monroe more than Sullinger price wise, but the Pistons are all so good that they cap one another’s upside. Monroe is a strong GPP option, and a viable cash play, but he’s not likely to greatly exceed 43 fantasy points in most of his ranges of outcomes. The Thunder are of the best 3-point defense teams in the league, so I’m not really all that interested in Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ( $4,000, SG) but his minutes and volume still make him a reasonable play.

SPIN (OKC): Reggie Jackson ( $7,600, PG ) is basically a must play every single night at this point in time. However, at this price point you might be able to get away with it. Fading him is not advised in cash games. He’s pure gold. Andre Roberson, and Perry Jones are still out for the Thunder, making Anthony Morrow ( $4,000, SG ) and Jeremy Lamb ( $4,500, SG ) viable.

Summary: 

Cash Games and GPPs: Reggie Jackson – PG, Greg Monroe – PF

GPP Only: Brandon Jennings – PG, Anthony Morrow – SG, Jeremy Lamb – SG, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – SG

Charlotte Hornets @ Phoenix Suns: Game Time – 9:00 PM

Notable stats:

  • The Phoenix Suns are giving up the highest FG percentage in the restricted area at 62.1%
  • Phoenix has the 4th highest Opp FG% allowed from the right-corner 3-pt shot, and the highest Opp FG% on left-corner 3-pt shots.

SPIN (CHA): This game has the potential to be a bad scramble at 9 pm lineup lock due to the sheer amount of injuries. As of this point, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (SF) is OUT, Lance Stephenson (SG/SF), Gary Neal (SG/PG), Marvin Williams (SF/PF) are all QUESTIONABLE. With all these players banged up, and a game against a very difficult Golden State Warriors team tomorrow, it really makes no sense for any of these guys to strain themselves. In any event, regardless of the status of the rest of these guys, P.J. Hairston ( $3,000, SG ) will start at Small Forward. He is one of those guys who is going to see a ton of minutes, and actually does things with them. He’s a plug in play across all lineups especially if any two of the above questionable players are ruled out. If Williams can’t play, Cody Zeller ( $3,900, PF ) will start at the 4, but believe it or not I’m still a bit concerned here. The Suns love to play a small lineup, so either Markieff Morris plays more minutes for the Suns, or Cody Zeller doesn’t play much for the Hornets. Charlotte still has Jason Maxiell, and he looks primed to irritate the hell out of all of Zeller’s owners. He’s a better matchup size wise, against the players that Phoenix will likely use at the 4.

SPIN (PHO): Phoenix is widely known for being sporadic with backcourt playing time, so in no way shape or form am I interested in any of these players for cash games. However, Goran Dragic ( $6,200 , PG), Isaiah Thomas ( $5,800, PG), Gerald Green ( $4,600, SG) are all fabulous GPP plays (just obviously not in the same lineup). Eric Bledsoe ( $6,300, SG ) continues to be in the doghouse of Head Coach Jeff Hornacek, so I’m going to pass on him for now.

Summary: 

Cash Games + GPPs: PJ Hairston – SG

GPP Only: Kemba Walker – PG, Goran Dragic – PG, Isaiah Thomas – PG, Gerald Green – SG, Cody Zeller – PF, Gary Neal – SG (if he plays)

San Antonio Spurs @ Los Angeles Lakers

This game is pretty obvious, so i’ll finish up short and sweet:

Tony Parker ( $6,700, PG ) and Tim Duncan ( $8,000, PF ) are fabulous plays, with Parker in particular being one, because of his price. Duncan also has incredible upside, but rarely pays off his price.

Jeremy Lin ( $5,800, PG ) is a sneaky GPP play for the Lakers, because I’m expecting Kawhi Leonard to be hounding Kobe Bryant all day long.

Summary:

Cash Games + GPPs: Tony Parker – PG, Kobe Bryant – SG

GPP Only: Jeremy Lin – PG, Tim Duncan – PF, Kawhi Leonard – SF, Carlos Boozer – PF

Rankings:

****These rankings have price factored in*** 

Players not in any of my multiple lineups, will be listed.

Point Guard:

  1. Rajon Rondo – $8,500
  2. Reggie Jackson – $7,600
  3. Michael Carter-Williams – $6,800
  4. Tony Parker – $6,700
  5. Ty Lawson – $7,000
  6. Goran Dragic – $6,200
  7. Brandon Jennings – $6,800
  8. Jeremy Lin – $5,800
  9. Jeff Teague – $7,000
  10. Kemba Walker – $7,500

Shooting Guard

  1. James Harden – $10,300
  2. P.J. Hairston – $3,000
  3. Kobe Bryant – $8,800
  4. Gary Neal – $3,700 (if he plays/starts)
  5. Kevin Martin – $5,900
  6. Jeremy Lamb – $4,500
  7. Gerald Green – $4,600

Small Forward

  1. Lebron James – $10,700
  2. Tobias Harris – $6,800
  3. Luol Deng – $5,500
  4. Kostas Papnikolau – $4,000
  5. CJ Miles – $3,000

Power Forward

  1. Anthony Davis – $11,200
  2. Paul Millsap – $8,200
  3. Tim Duncan – $8,000
  4. Ryan Anderson – $5,500
  5. Greg Monroe – $7,300
  6. Anthony Bennett – $3,000 (if he starts)
  7. Mike Scott – $3,000
  8. Cody Zeller – $3,900
  9. Carlos Boozer – $5,500
  10. Jared Sullinger – $7,000

Center

  1. Chris Bosh – $8,300
  2. Dwight Howard – $8,600
  3. Roy Hibbert – $7,300
  4. J.J. Hickson – $3,500
  5. Gorgui Dieng – $4,200 (if he starts)
  6. Nikola Vucevic – $8,100
  7. Kelly Olynyk – $5,800

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