2014 Fantasy Basketball Daily Fix, November 5th, 2014
Daily News for November 5th, 2014
NBA Daily Fantasy is unlike any other sport due to the amount of time sensitive information that is constantly rolling in at various times. Here at The Fix we try our best to bridge the divide between giving you the information you need in time to get your lineups set, while also preparing you for any wacky information that may come across as late as five minutes before tip-off. Therefore it is very important to check twitter as frequently as you can. That being said, here is the information you need to be ready for between now and tip-off
We’re but days into the 2014-2015 NBA season, and we’re already seeing that injuries dictate the landscape of NBA daily fantasy every day. The Chicago Bulls provided excellent value last night, and the same will be true again tonight. Joakim Noah is doubtful. I can’t remember the last time a player was doubtful and ended up playing, so he’s out tonight. Derrick Rose is questionable, and considering he was scratched last night when he was probable all day, I don’t like his chances to play either. Jimmy Butler ( $4,900 ) and Taj Gibson ( $5,200 ) will be locked into every one of my lineups tonight and their ridiculously cheap prices, and Pau Gasol ( $7,500 ) is an elite play as well. If Rose is ruled out, look at Aaron Brooks ( $4,000 ) as well, who played heavy minutes off the bench last night and put up a terrific score at a cheap price.
For the Raptors, Jonas Valanciunas is doubtful, and Amir Johnson didn’t even make the trip to Boston. Patrick Patterson ( $3,500 ) is dirt cheap and should be locked into heavy minutes. He bounced back from a complete dud in his first start with a big game last night, putting up 33.5 DK points in 36 minutes. Tyler Hansbrough ( $3,000 ) should move into the starting lineup as well and play a full complement of minutes. He’s minimum priced and should easily pay off his salary with upside for much, much more.
That’s it for the big news of the day. Now, on to the plays!
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Elfrid Payton ( $4,000 ) – Payton is one of the top value plays of the day, and will be locked into most, if not all, of my lineups tonight. He’s posted well over 30 DK points his last two games, and has a terrific matchup with the dumpster fire known as the Philadelphia 76ers. If you like to watch defense, don’t turn this game on. Payton is not a great scorer, but he supplements his fantasy totals by contributing rebounds, assists, and steals. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where he doesn’t meet, and most likely, exceed his value threshold tonight. In NBA, the simplest plays are often the best ones, and that holds true with Payton tonight.
Aaron Brooks ( $4,000 ) – We don’t have definitive word on Derrick Rose, but considering he was scratched late after being probable all day yesterday, his questionable tag today doesn’t inspire much confidence in him taking the court. If Rose is out, Brooks becomes a tremendous value play at only $4,000. He saw 30 minutes last night, posting a score of 33.5 on DK. I’m not expecting him to block 3 shots again, but he has the upside to exceed his price tag. Don’t roster him over Payton, though. Payton is much better play because he’s locked into more minutes, and has a more favorable matchup.
John Wall ( $9,600 ) – Wall is looking to bounce back from a poor performance in New York last night. He has a terrific matchup with defensively-inept Donald Sloan and the injury-ravaged Pacers. When Wall is rolling, he’s capable of putting up elite fantasy totals. The best part about him is he’s always low owned. Players rarely pick Wall over similarly priced studs like Chris Paul, Stephen Curry, DeMarcus Cousins, or Blake Griffin. Wall has legitimate 60 point upside because of his ability to score, dish out 10+ assists, and steal the basketball. There is a lot of value at the guard positions tonight, so paying up for Wall is a great way to differentiate yourself from the crowd.
Tony Wroten ( $7,500 ) – Wroten should thrive in this matchup with Orlando. The game should stay close to the very end, and Wroten will continue to play heavy minutes with a high usage rate as he is by far the best offensive weapon the Sixers currently have. He’s been stellar in 3 of 4 games. His down game was a tough matchup against Brandon Knight. I don’t expect similar resistance from Orlando. He’s getting pricey, but I expect him to eclipse 40 fantasy points again tonight, which is terrific for the investment.
Honorable Mention: Chris Paul ( $9,600 ), Darren Collison ( $7,000 )
Jimmy Butler ( $4,900 ) – Joakim Noah is doubtful and Derrick Rose is questionable, which means we’re likely looking at huge minutes and usage for Butler again tonight. He was a terrific value play last night, and at $100 cheaper, he’s a top play again tonight. He posted 41.75 DK points in 35 minutes last night, and don’t be surprised to see something similar tonight. The Bucks aren’t a tough matchup, and the game should stay close given the key players the Bulls are missing in addition to the game being played in Milwaukee. The great thing about Bulls is you know what to expect. Tom Thibodeau is my favorite head coach because he rides his starters, and he’s very predictable in terms of who is going to fill in when players sit. You can roster Bulls and be confident that they won’t randomly lose minutes because of the whim of the coach.
Courtney Lee ( $3,200 ) – Lee is slated to return against Phoenix, and he should go right back to his normal allotment of minutes. He draws a great matchup with a Suns team that is playing a back to back, doesn’t defend well, and plays at a very fast pace. This is great news for Grizzles, as they are priced according to their extremely slow pace. Memphis will see more than their average number of possessions, and given Lee is already fairly cheap relative to his typical production, he’s a fine value play tonight.
Honorable Mention: Klay Thompson ( $7,600 ) , Gary Neal ( $3,400 )
Shawne Williams ( $3,000 ) – Williams continues to do just enough to make himself a viable fantasy option. He’s seeing 28-30 minutes nightly, which should be enough time for him to pull down enough rebounds and knock down enough three-pointers to hit his value threshold. This isn’t a play that has much to do with matchup, rather Williams is a player that is priced at a low price relative to the fantasy points he appears to be locked into. Paying up at small forward generally hurts your lineups, so look to Williams as a value play that provides the ability to pay for better options elsewhere.
Tobias Harris ( $5,800 ) – Harris is a terrific play tonight against the Sixers. Aside from a down game against Washington, Harris has been a consistent option as one of the top offensive options for the Magic. He should thrive in an up-and-down matchup with a Sixers team that will have trouble containing him. At $5,800, he’s a fine option that should provide upwards of 30 fantasy points, with upside to exceed 40. The weakness of the small forward position will be a common theme this season, and fading a player like Harris at this price point in a terrific matchup will be a losing play in the long run.
Honorable Mention: Paul Pierce ( $5,600 ), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist ( $5,400 ) ( if healthy )
Taj Gibson ( $5,200 ) – Taj didn’t do quite what I expected last night, but he got himself into trouble by picking up his third foul with about 8 minutes left in the 2nd half. Had he not done that, he would have finished out the 2nd half and earned 7-8 more minutes. With that time, he probably would have finished with about 10 more fantasy points. Tonight he’ll almost certainly be starting in place of Joakim Noah, so look to him to provide a much better effort against an extremely weak Milwaukee front court. If Ersan Ilyasova starts gain, it’s not even going to be fair. Ersan is a horrific defender, and Taj will have no trouble pushing him around.
Paul Gasol ( $7,500 ) – Pau will once again be locked into huge minutes with the Bulls slated to be without Joakim Noah again. Tom Thibodeau rides his starters, and in what should be a close game with the Bucks, expect Pau to play around 40 minutes again tonight. Larry Sanders can block shots, but he’s a terrible defender, and Pau should have no trouble putting up points tonight. He’s an extremely safe option, with high upside in this matchup and scenario.
Patrick Patterson( $3,500 ) – Patterson found himself in early foul trouble and dropped a complete dud in his first start for Amir Johnson, but bounced back nicely last night, scoring 33.5 DK points in 36 minutes. Jonas Valanciunas is already doubtful, and Amir didn’t even make the trip to Boston, so it looks like Patterson is in line for more big minutes. At $3,500, unless he gets into foul trouble again, he’s an elite play at this price. When a player can offer you 30+ fantasy points at nearly minimum salary, you jump all over them. He’s going to be in several of my lineups tonight.
Honorable Mention: Zach Randolph ( $7,500 ), Blake Griffin ( $10,100 ), Tyler Hansborough ( $3,000 )
Nikola Vucevic ( $8,800 ) – Center isn’t offering any good value plays, which is fine because every other position is loaded with them. Vucevic has a terrific matchup against the Sixers. He’s been asserting himself offensively much more than last season, and he’s been a monster on the glass. In a fast-paced, up-and-down matchup with the defensively-inept Sixers, Vucevic is line for a huge double-double, some blocks, and a terrific fantasy score.
DeMarcus Cousins ( $9,800 ) – I love Boogie tonight. This could easily be one of those games where he goes nuts and absolutely dominates. The starters were all limited last time out against Denver. They were playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, and Cousins and Gay were both fatigued. Denver’s interior defensive is extremely poor, and against a matchup-proof center like Cousins, they simply don’t have a prayer. Cousins is one of the top overall plays of the day, and you need exposure to him given his massive upside.
Honorable Mention: Marc Gasol ( $8,000 )