Fantasy Basketball

2015-16 Fantasy Basketball: Yahoo ADP Analysis — Overvalued Players

Constantly we are looking for that slight edge on the competition in drafts, and a great way to be one step ahead is to review the recent ADP list on the site that you’ll be drafting on and noting players that are going both too high and too low. I will be going over both the overvalued and undervalued players from Yahoo’s ADP list.

You can find my undervalued players piece here. In this article I will be going over players I feel are being overvalued according to Yahoo’s latest ADP list. These are players who I feel are undeserving of their high ADPs and are going too early in drafts for my liking. Let’s find out who we should be passing on unless they fall beyond their current ADP.

Kyrie Irving — Cleveland Cavaliers — PG — Y! ADP 10.3

I’m not debating that Kyrie Irving is a top-10 player when healthy, because he is right in that discussion, no doubt. This is just me proceeding with caution over a player who suffered a fractured knee cap just over three months ago. While recent reports say he could participate in training camp to a limited extent, the Cavs aren’t going to take any chances rushing Kyrie along. I think a safer estimate for his return to game action is December.

Once Kyrie does return, he’s a sure top 10-15 player — until he gets hurt again. Irving has missed time five straight years going back to his lone season at Duke. Last season he managed 75 games in the regular season before suffering the knee injury in the NBA Finals. So, you got more than enough of him last year to be worth it, but I personally can’t draft a guy with his history of injuries in the first or even second round when I believe he’ll miss at least a month and a half. If you’re in a shallower league, it makes more sense because your backups are stronger but in a 12-teamer or deeper, it’s not so easy. Currently I have Kyrie ranked 28th, but that will change one way or the other as more news comes out. Either way, he won’t be in my top-12.

Hassan Whiteside — Miami Heat — C — Y! ADP 31.6

As you know from my roto league strategy piece, I wouldn’t draft Whiteside at all in rotisserie leagues, but I’ll assume this high ADP is due to the large amount of H2H drafts. If you decide to punt FT%, I am ok taking Whiteside in the top four rounds, I guess, but I am just not a fan of him going before some of the players he is currently being drafted ahead of. I would for sure take Andre Drummond, Brook Lopez and Nerlens Noel ahead of Whiteside.

If you are in a H2H league and want to land a big boards and blocks guy early and the better options are gone, I suppose I could see it, but I really would rather just wait and take someone like Gorgui Dieng a few rounds later. Then you could add another cheap blocks guy like John Henson or Roy Hibbert even later and be fine if you miss on the big men I rank ahead of Hassan.

Dirk Nowitzki — Dallas Mavericks — PF/C — Y! ADP 40.5

I’ve never made it a secret that Dirk Nowitzki has been my favorite NBA player the past 13 years, he’s amazing to watch at work. If I was a tattoo person, I would 100% have a Dirk fade-away silhouette tat. Despite who I really like to watch in reality, I’ve always been able to separate fantasy from reality. I’m not one to reach on players that are on the Orlando Magic (my favorite team) or I enjoy watching. I assess their fantasy values as everyone else and draft accordingly.

Dirk’s ADP is about to take an absolute nose dive since coach Carlisle came out this week and told reporters that they want to limit Dirk to around 26 minutes a night. Dirk finished 65th last season playing slightly over 29 minutes, so those hoping Dirk would take on a bigger offensive role with Monta gone, will be sadly let down. Dirk is now a guy I wouldn’t look at until maybe like the 90 range? Even then, he’s not an exciting fantasy option.

Ty Lawson — Houston Rockets — PG — Y! ADP 42.5

How Ty Lawson has gotten people to draft him this early to this point is beyond me, but if someone does this in your draft, be happy about it. Last season Lawson was in a much better situation. He was a higher priority on the offensive totem pole, he was the primary ball handler and passer and he didn’t have a backup deserving of taking many minutes away. Despite all of that and playing 35.5 minutes a night on the season in Denver, Lawson still only rang in at 56th on BasketballMonster.com. Down the stretch, he was even worse, too. The final two months (24 games), Ty played 32.5 minutes and couldn’t hit shots for his life, but he kept on shooting, killing your fantasy field goal percentage at 40.8% in that time. In case you were wondering, he ranked 101st over the final two months, yikes.

Now in Houston, Lawson will handle the ball less since James Harden likes to often control the offense, and that is going to drop his best statistic — assists. On a better team, Ty will see drops in his points as well and Patrick Beverley will see plenty of court time for his defensive prowess. I currently have Lawson pegged at 27 minutes a night. I’m sure he will have his moments, but I don’t see a lot of consistency and there’s no reason to believe he should be drafted inside the top-60. I currently have him ranked 68th.

Giannis Antetokounmpo — Milwaukee Bucks — SF/PF — Y! ADP 57.5

In a perfect world, Giannis would come in to this season with a much improved three point shot that he’s very confident in using, but in the real world, it’s not happening that quickly. Sure, his one block and steal per game are nice assets, but I don’t expect much if any of a rise in his points and rebounds with the Bucks addition of Greg Monroe this off-season. Also, the gradual return of Jabari Parker will just throw one more wrench in his true breakout hopes. They’re such a well balanced team that it hinders all of their upsides a bit.

The Greek Freak stuck right around 75-80 on BasketballMonster throughout last season, and that is right about where I have him ranked to end this season as well. Until he can add a trey ball to his arsenal or he becomes a steals and blocks machine, he will be just a solid fantasy commodity in re-draft leagues. Don’t reach on Antetokounmpo based on the Greek myths being thrown about on the net.

Kenneth Faried — Denver Nuggets — PF/C — Y! ADP 58.5

Is this finally the year that Kenneth Faried puts together a quality full season? If it is, this wouldn’t be an absurd draft spot, but I’m not a fan of drafting a player in the middle rounds at the place that is their best case scenario ceiling. The past couple of seasons, the first half we’ve gotten ‘Kenneth’ an average fantasy player ranking outside the top-100 on BasketballMonster, and then he’s had second half surges where he becomes the “Manimal.” The Manimal version of Faried averages 1+ block and steal along with slight bumps in other categories as well.

In 2013-14 he ranked 35th the last two months and 88th on the season. In 2014-15, Ken ranked 65th the last two months and 94th on the season. So, I’m just not going to take on this headache inside the fifth or even sixth round. If Faried were to fall into the late seventh or eighth round, then I’d begin to consider it if he fit a need. There is a lot of buzz about the new up-tempo offense in Denver and how it could be beneficial to Faried and crew, but I’m still not reaching for him regardless.

More players with injury concerns who are currently going too high:

Jrue Holiday (42.9) – Holiday has battled injuries a lot over his career and to try and prevent more, the Pelicans have said they will limit Jrue’s minutes throughout the season. Even worse, head coach Alvin Gentry said they’ll limit Jrue to 15 minutes per game until January. Bye bye any hope of fantasy value. I’m not drafting Holiday this year.

Wesley Mathews (57.4) – There’s just too much uncertainty with how long Wesley Matthews will be out until he’s 100% healed from last year’s achilles injury. We’ve heard him say he’s hoping for the season opener (very doubtful), someone said Christmas, but Carlise shot that down. There’s too much risk to consider Wes anywhere near 57th overall. Maybe somewhere in the 80-100 range if you’re ok with waiting him out, but I’ll be passing.

Derrick Rose (58.0) – I already had him written in here before the news that he fractured an orbital bone in his face. He should be ok after a couple weeks of healing but between this injury and the past knee problems, him with an ADP this high is absurd. I’m especially avoiding Rose in roto leagues, as his FG% is brutally bad.

Jabari Parker (85.4) – Love Jabari long-term but coming off last a torn ACL last year and being on a really crowded team as mentioned above in the Giannis write up, I don’t see him getting close to producing enough to be looked at in the 85 range. Still a lot of unknown as to when he’ll be a full go in games, but if news stays positive, maybe around pick 115 I would look at him. So, yeah, I probably won’t be owning Jabari this year due to that, and that’s ok by me.

Brandon Jennings (102.1) – Best case scenario is Jennings returns in December, but he’s been adamant that he won’t rush back. Even when he does return, this is Reggie Jackson’s team now and owners of Jennings will be hoping he’s traded by the deadline. If you have an IR slot, maybe grab him in the very last rounds at highest.

Nikola Pekovic (113.6) – Stop it.

 

For more fantasy hoops analysis and to have any questions you may have answered, follow Zack on Twitter @BigZack44

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