Daily Fantasy Basketball: Numbers Smashers
This piece was written by DFS consultant Chris Pacheco. Follow Chris on twitter @TheNumbers_Guy
Rudy Gay (7.8K) – There’s a great deal of numerical evidence to support this top selection. Through 12 games, Philadelphia ranks 30th in the league against opposing small forwards. Over his past six games, Gay has averaged 43 fantasy points, 37.2 mpg, and he has taken 134 shots. Of those 134 shots, 26 have been three pointers. He’s made 55/134 FG (41.0 FG %), and 12/26 three pointers (46.2 3P %) during that stretch. Gay has the favorable matchup and is the clearcut offensive focal point for the Raptors. Prediction: Gay will be a top-five daily fantasy basketball play on the board this evening, representing excellent value for his price tag of $7,800 on DraftKings.
Roy Hibbert (7.4K) – The numbers lie. Despite evidence in their favor (ranking an inflated fifth against centers), the Knicks have been a poor defensive team since Tyson Chandler went down with a knee injury on November 5th. Additionally, Andrea Bargnani is starting in the middle right now and his defensive talents are well below par. Hibbert has averaged 35.8 FPPG over his last five-pack of games, plus Indiana is coming off their first loss of the season. Look for an angry Hibbert to take vengeance against and undermanned and undersized Knicks squad.
Blake Griffin (9.3K) – Griffin has been an ultra-consistent fantasy player thus far, quality of opponent notwithstanding. His worst effort of the season came against Houston, and he still posted 32.75 FP’s in that game. Last time out against a rugged Memphis defense (ranked 12th against power forwards), he delivered 45.25 FP’s. He’s averaged 45.8 FPPG over his past five, and Minnesota is allowing 40.34 FPPG against PF’s. Fun salary fact: Griffin’s price on DraftKings has fallen on four separate occasions this season; in those four contests he accumulated a FPPG increase of 39 points. Here’s to hoping we see a sizable ascent for the 5th straight time – his price tag is reasonable enough.
Marc Gasol (8.0K) – Gasol = versatile stat sheet filler. Despite facing off with a Golden State front line that ranks 7th against centers, Mr. Gasol isn’t concerned. He had 39.25 FP’s against the Warriors on November 9th and played 42 minutes in that game. The Memphis offense mainly runs through Gasol, and his ability to score and pass from the block is second to none. He’s rebounding, however, has left some to be desired. Nevertheless, his price tag is extremely favorable given his wide array of skills, making him a no-brainer for me tonight.
Nikola Vucevic (7.7K) – This matchup bodes extremely well for Vucevic, who goes up against a Miami defense that ranks 19th against centers. With nobody on the roster weighing in at more than 245 pounds, the Heat are allowing 43.10 FPPG to opposing men in the middle. Vucevic has averaged 35 FPPG over his past five contests, and he possesses the talent/size/opportunity trifecta to exceed those lofty expectations tonight in all of his customary categories – points, rebounds and blocks.
Low price tags/Recent success
Terrence Jones (3.9K) – He’s averaging 30.3 FPPG over his last four.
Martell Webster (4.3K) – In the last two games with Trevor Ariza sidelined, Webster has received starters minutes and has put up 36.88 FP’s per night.
Trevor Ariza (4.8K) – If he’s cleared to play tonight, Ariza will likely re-assume the starting role over Webster. His price tag is depressed for a player who’s averaging 31.4 FPPG on the season. Keep a close eye on this situation as game time approaches.
Tony Wroten (5.6K) – If Michael Carter-Williams is out tonight, Tony Wroten needs to be in your lineup. In the past four games in which he has received starter-type minutes, Wroten has averaged 37.12 FPPG. You won’t find that kind of potential from any other point guard in the 5K price range.