Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy: April 5, 2016
We have a big 11-game NBA slate on our hands tonight, and I’ll be breaking it down from top to bottom to help you formulate your DFS lineups, and lead you towards ending the night in the green. I’ll review and analyze the top plays of the night, point out the best cheap values on the slate, and then finish with positional rankings. Let’s get right to the daily grind!
I’m a North Carolina Tarheels fan, so last night was a rough one. I had plans to write after the game, but to no surprise, I wasn’t in the mood. I did process all of the matchups and recent trends, plus consistency data into the spreadsheet, so all of the plays below are there for the same reasons that I always have them. However, I have just my 45 minutes after eating a sandwich of my lunch break to type this all up. Basically just letting you know why it’s shorter than usual, it’s not due to lack of analysis, only time.
Stephen Curry – You can’t go wrong with Curry or Russell Westbrook, both have great matchups and have owned the teams they play tonight thus far this season. Pick the red or blue pill, I chose the MVP.
Kyle Lowry – If you go second-tier, look at Kyle Lowry, especially in cash games. He’s said to be good to go tonight, should easily hit value at this price, and has averaged 42 FPs against Charlotte this season.
Jeff Teague – Need to go even cheaper? Teague has been posting big games here and there, and a matchup against the Suns is always primed for an outburst. Teague is priced well and my analysis has him at 36 FPs tonight.
Cheap risk option: There’s a few really nice cheap options on tap tonight. Tim Frazier is set as a starter and for big minutes again plus a good matchup, Ronnie Price the same minus the good matchup, and Dennis Schroder could see added minutes if/when their game gets ugly and he does work with the minutes he gets.
Jimmy Butler – Until Derrick Rose returns (in full), I am going to keep running Jimmy B out there at this price level. He’s dominated three straight games for the Bulls, stuffing the stat sheet. Tough matchup be damned.
C.J. McCollum – He’s been great all year long and he’s just now saying that the game is slowing down for him. So, he’s going to be even better?! Well, wouldn’t take much to be better tonight against the Kings who play at a fast pace and give up the third most FPs to shooting guards.
Kobe Bryant – He only needs half of what he did in their last game to hit above value tonight, and he’s slated to play and seems full-go. While blowout fears are there, they should hang in long enough for Kobe to force up plenty of shots. He’s a better GPP option, cheap upside play. I have him at 25 FPs.
Kevin Durant – If you can make it work, KD is the play here tonight. He faces an inferior defense, has averaged 50 FP in three games against Denver, and the pace of this game fits perfectly for Durant’s game. I have him projected for 53 FPs.
Matt Barnes – Seems Barnes has become my comfort blanket at SF recently. He’s just doing so much for the depleted Grizzlies, that he always seems to beat value, and luckily his price hasn’t risen much yet. The matchup tonight is good for him as well. I have him at 28 FPs.
Cheap risk option: Jordan Hamilton is the go-to guy here if you’re in need of a value play. He has a nice matchup and has averaged 30 FPs over his last three games.
DeMarcus Cousins – The Kings are at home tonight, and you know what that means, the Boogie Man will be active. Not only that, but he gets an ideal matchup against the Blazers bigs. DMC should be nice and fresh for this game, so look for him to have a big night.
Julius Randle – He’s been doing extremely well since becoming a full-time starter. He will have his hands full when Blake Griffin is on the floor tonight, but he should still manage a near double-double. He’s averaged over 32 FPs the last five games, 36 FPs against the Clips this year, and I have him projected at 35 FPs tonight at a really good price point.
Cheap risk option: Ed Davis has been super efficient with his minutes lately, racking up over one fantasy point per minute. Foul trouble is the lone fear tonight as he goes up against Boogie, but he’s put up 22 FPs in each game against the Kings so far this year, and that’d be at his value-line.
Pau Gasol – Can’t stop, won’t stop. Just as I said with Jimmy Butler, Pau is just doing to much for the Bulls right now, and DFS sites have him priced too low. Take advantage as I have Gasol at 45 FPs tonight.
Jonas Valanciunas – He’s actually playing the minutes we always dreamed of as the Raptors try and stretch their big man out a bit before the playoffs arrive. JV priced so low, has a lot of upside in this good matchup. I have his projection at 32 FPs.
Cheap risk option: It’s all about Alexis Ajinca if you need a cheap center tonight. He’s super cheap, has a nice matchup against the Sixers and has hit value in six straight. I have him at 25 FPs tonight.
Cash game rankings:
This isn’t necessarily an order of who will score the most DraftKings points. Rather, the rankings are aimed to find the best price, value and production combo to help you win cash games, also taking into account potential ownership levels for each player.
As always, stay locked to Twitter and Rotoworld for any late-breaking news the hour before the first game tips at 7 p.m. EST. I’ll do my best to update this article as news breaks throughout the day, but the best way to get the latest is always to follow me on Twitter @BigZack44, where I’ll do my best to break down the implications of any late scratches or lineup changes.